Saturday, May 31, 2008

Final May Update

So, not much have come out since the Tuesday update, but I figure since I have a little time here, might as well post a little more stuff.

We finally got some more photos of F-22P out today. I have to say that I haven't noticed any significant changes since the last set of photos, but that might be due to the distance of the photos. If we get a couple of more up close shots, I might see some new sensors installed.




Edit: Just adding some photos I got last night. This first one actually shows the 30 mm CIWS on F-22P. We no longer have the cover over the top. It looks just like the gun portion of LD-2000 as we suspected. Although, it's not carrying the missiles.






There are also some new pictures of 170 and 998 coming out. 170 hasn't changed much and is not really carrying the anti-ship missiles. 998 also looks like it did before.


Tuesday, May 27, 2008

End of May updates

So, I've been pretty busy in the past week with visitors + going away for a retreat. I haven't had much time to go through the PLA news, so this is not going to be the most informative update I've ever had.

I've read some concerns over the status of CAC after the recent earthquake. From what I read, it seems like CAC is back in full operation. In fact, this avic1 article does a good job talking about CAC.
本报讯(通讯员杨兴根 梅晶洪)四川汶川发生大地震后,一航成飞按照中国一航党组的要求和部署,全面启动和实施灾后生产自救工作。

5 月14日,是汶川大地震后的第三天,也是一航成飞逐渐恢复灾后生产的第一天。公司领导王广亚、王小平率技术改造部门负责人到各个生产单位了解受损情况,对受损设备情况进行登记,对整改工作提出了具体要求。为配合政府和部队向地震灾区运送物资,一航成飞机场也向部队开放,确保部队运输物资的飞机能安全起飞、着陆,并做好地面技术服务保障工作。

地震发生后,试飞站职工没有休息一天,全部到岗。他们对飞机、设备、设施进行全面细致地检查,各项工作步入正常轨道。到目前为止,试飞站已组织完成某项飞机缝制任务6900 米和各种机型备件零件接收任务,完成“枭龙”飞机的系统更改工作和5架歼七G型飞机发动机换装的库内工作,并达到待飞状态。检验检测部特种检验室技术组职工在办公地点墙面开裂的情况下,仍加紧编制某项目研制工艺文件;渗透站职工急生产所急,从5月15日开始加班对来自结构件厂、数控厂、钣金厂共800件零件进行检测。钣金厂及时启动应急机制,及时监测热处理工段硝盐槽工作情况,维修人员迅速检修厂房内机床、吊车等设备状况,通过自查清理,排除了重大安全隐患发生的可能。

为尽快恢复生产,最大程度减少灾害损失,数控厂全面启动抗灾自救工作,提出“万众一心,抗灾自救,群策群力,复产减损”的工作口号,要求干部职工齐心协力、科学有序开展灾后自救工作。自5 月14日正式上班后,数控厂各部门严格按照制定的计划进行工作,常规维修组抓紧时间对厂房、吊车、测量机、立体刀具库和工装库等基础设施、辅助设备进行全面检查,并以最快的速度恢复了吊车的使用,为数控机床的及时复工创造了条件。硬件维修组针对数控机床状态不明的情况,及时制定了一套数控设备状态检查方案,成立了专题小组对数控设备外观损坏情况、基础固定的松动与否、零件受损状况、设备电缆连接、悬挂元器件稳固、设备几何精度等进行了全方面测试。到5月 16日,专业厂20多台数控设备正式开始运行生产。信息技术部在恢复生产后,果断向全体职工发出了“全力维护中心运行,确保生产自救”的行动口号,组织各精兵强将开展抢修数据中心主机房系统的恢复工作,经过两小时的紧急抢修,企业数据中心所有主机系统和网络交换设备全面应急启动成功,企业应用系统全面恢复运行。

The gist is that everyone was back to work and everything was back to normal by the 16th of May. The interesting part is the section on the project currently being worked on. It talks about the flight testing station working non stop to a new aircraft project of flying to 6900 m. It talks about completing the modification work on JF-17 (although I'm not sure what this is referring to). I also talks about changing the engine of 5 J-7G.

And, I've read a renewed debate on whether or not China will place any orders for JF-17 in the future. I basically look at China's need for something like JF-17 in 3 areas.
1) As a cheap fighter that could be useful in a war of attrition.
2) As a ground strike fighter
3) As a trainer
Basically, a lot of these options have only become possible with the slowness of the L-15 project. Generally speaking, CAC is a much better run company than HAIG. For a project that started with so much potential, HAIG's incompetence has allowed CAC to basically pitch JF-17 in the area that was originally reserved for L-15. Heck, even the much inferior JL-9 has attracted orders from PLAAF. From that stand point, CAC seems to be more in tune with PLAAF requirements than other AVIC1 firms.

While, CAC survived the earthquake, Dongfang had a much tougher go at it.
可惜:东方汽轮机厂损失严重 震前曾计划搬迁
本报记者 陈欢 李超

   “现在根本还没法统计。”

   17日下午1时,汉旺镇中心,记者再次来到东方汽轮机厂门前。在遇难人员家属登记处,当本报记者问及“现在是否知道厂里到底有多少职工死亡、失踪,有多少设备、财务毁损”时,对方如此回答。

   记者在厂区看到,大门右手的档案大楼,看起来是最完整的一栋楼,但墙壁有明显的很大的裂缝。研究楼和办公大楼,从底楼到二楼有巨大的裂缝,部分倒塌。一个跨度大概为5-6米的厂房,顶棚已坍塌下来。

   幸存的职工说,所有的设备和仪器都已经毁坏。记者16日从汉旺镇指挥部获得的信息是,该厂共有7栋建筑物垮塌,损失严重。

   东方汽轮厂的14(或16)栋家属楼(连排大概2到3栋为一排,大约总共有五六排),彻底坍塌了12栋。如今,即使依然站立的房子,都已经扭曲,有的楼则是半边坍塌。但依然可以看到震前迹象,有的房间还养着花,晾晒着衣服。

   东汽中学则在东汽附近的一个小巷里面。教学楼是一栋框架混合预制板建筑,共有4层。如今,左侧的楼宇已经坍塌,剩下两堵高墙耸立在空中,右侧的楼宇整体结构还在,但有大量裂缝。

   地震发生时,学校正在上下午第一节课,很多来不及逃生的学生被压在倒塌的教学楼下,具体多少人尚不清楚。16日,记者见到,东汽中学的操场上,约有20多具被掩起的遇难学生遗体。

   东方汽轮厂的搜救得到了高度关注。16日夜间,俄罗斯搜救队曾进入厂区搜救,后确定没有找到生还者。17日晨,台湾搜救队也曾进入,并把大本营驻扎此处。此前,参与搜救的还有唐山抢险队。但如今,“相信已无幸存者”。

   17日下午,绵竹市的灾情通报为:东方汽轮机厂99%的建筑坍塌,500多职工失踪。记者现场见到,四川乐山的消防局在进行最后一次地毯式的清理、搜救。当地的人称,之后这个厂就要实施爆破了。16日,在绵竹指挥中心,驻渝红军团也向记者透露了类似信息。

   受伤的央企

   在距离汶川仅29公里的绵竹市汉旺镇,东方电气下属的东方汽轮机厂在这里占据着大半面积,俗称“十里东汽”。据一个东汽员工称,东汽有职工5000多人,加上家属,总人数约2万人。

   12日14时28分那场地震摧毁了一切。14日,东方电气被国资委列为受灾最为严重的央企之一。

   东方电气党委工作部的负责人告诉记者,“当时,我们人员比较集中,比如叶片分厂正在开会,很多职工被埋在下面。而我们的附属中学,学生正在上课,所以也是非常集中的。汽轮机厂的整个建筑物都受到不同程度的损害。”

   据国资委网站提供的信息,地震导致绵竹汉旺众多人员伤亡,有数百职工家属和200多学生被埋在废墟之下,1万余人因房屋倒塌无家可归,受灾职工及家属无衣物、无食品、无饮水。

   灾后,东方电气集团第一时间展开自救。董事长王计、总经理斯泽夫立即赶到现场指挥。东方电气下属的其它子公司东方电机(30.14,-3.35,-10.00%,吧)、东方汽轮机、东方锅炉、东风电机,分别启动了对东方汽轮机的救援工作。

   国资委在接到东方电气的受损汇报后,也立即动员在川央企支援东方汽轮机厂。

  地处成都的中铁工程局中铁二局(16.27,-1.59,-8.90%,吧),最早派出80人的专业救援队伍到达现场。中铁二局总经理邓元发回忆说,“我们母公司在德阳,12日晚10点20左右,公司相关的救援人员已经到达,但是当时救援设备还没到,设备过去大概是晚上12点。”

   “我们的主要任务就是帮忙找人、挖人,到15日中午12点,我们在东汽那里救助了106人,其中遇难者是58人,幸存者是48人。但这48人中有伤员,所以,最后情况到底如何尚不清楚。”

   5月13日下午,专业援助队伍陆续赶到东方汽轮机厂,人员疏散也同时开展,“我们现在把汉旺镇的大部分受灾职工,用班车转移到了德阳。”

   而5月16日,东方电气方面仍告诉记者,东方汽轮机厂仍然在继续被埋人员的寻找和抢救活动。

   从小震到大震

   17日,东汽门口一维护秩序的幸存东方汽轮机长职工告诉本报记者,东方电气、哈尔滨电气和上海电气,并称中国的“装备工业三强”。

   而东方汽轮机厂,是一个“五电合一”的企业,即核电、风电、水电、煤电和海水淡化。东方电气提供的信息显示,该厂主导产品是电站汽轮机,其产品技术质量已达国际先进水平,在我国汽轮机市场占有率超过30%。

   在汉旺当地,东方汽轮机厂是名副其实的经济支柱。但据东方汽轮机厂目前的统计数据,此次地震直接损失达70亿元。

   16日,东方电气的上述负责人表示,已开始小范围的设备检查,“由于我们的设备工艺比较复杂,而且我们的厂房和设备受损现象比较严重,所以,何时能恢复生产尚没有时间表。”

   东方电气旗下的其它子公司,东方锅炉13日自查完毕后,已恢复正常生产;东方电机于15日上午完成水、电、气、通讯、网络系统修复,并于当天下午恢复生产;东方重机正采取24小时不落地的措施组织生产,全力确保岭澳二期核电项目能按期完成。

   17日,多位东汽员工对本报记者表示,“现在根本还谈不上”,并称,即使重建,也不会在原地重建了,一是交通不便,二是常有地震发生。

   记者了解到,东方汽轮机厂的地址就在龙门山脉上,所以,这个厂几乎是每隔两年就小震一次。而由于地震不断,东方汽轮机厂也一直想要搬迁。

   并且,该厂于1965年建厂,大部分的建筑也都建于那一时期。其中,家属楼曾在上世纪80年代加固过一次。

   但最终,计划中的搬迁,未能在震灾前实现。

Basically, this factory has suffered damages to both the factory and equipments. They don't really have a recovery schedule right now.

In the navy side, we haven't really seen too much recently. You can catch some of the pictures for the 3rd Yuan. It's similar to the previous photos except that the anechoic tiles became really visible. We've also seen the latest picture of LCAC.

It seems a little smaller than the previous pictures.

Other than that, Russian president visited China this past weekend. The military cooperation issue was much talked about in the Russian press. I think that China should resolve this issue with Russia in a more satisfactory manner. While I don't believe that China will need that much more Russian weapons in the future, it does want to maintain good relations with the Russians. In the grand theme of things, signing an agreement for unlimited licenses (if they haven't already done so) for J-11 as they did with Mi-171. Although, I really don't see the need for exporting J-11B anytime soon. And the Russians (especially Sukhoi) needs to swallow its pride and realize that China cannot in good conscious continue to buy outdated fighter package just to satisfy them.

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Helicopters in the rescue efforts

So, the recent tragic events in the Sichuan region has touched many of us. It has also revealed one of the weakest part of China and PLA's modernization. The SAR and transport fleet for PLA is really lacking. More importantly, China still does not have enough helicopters. The following excerpts in Chinese give a good idea of what PLA is contributing:

昌飞公司全力以赴保障抗灾救灾直升机使用

来  源:
责任编辑:古新萍

2008年05月14日 【字体大小:大 中 小】


5月12日四川汶川地震灾害发生后,13日上午,昌飞公司接到驻厂空军代表室通知,南空8架直8K型直升机、十五军4架直8KA型直升机己经进入应急救援待命状态。昌飞公司领导立即召开了抗灾救灾应急救援直升机保障会议,当前一切工作以保障抗灾抢险为中心,对即将执行任务的12架搜救和运输直升机从人力资源、备件以及技术支持等方面做好了充分的安排,全力保障机队应急救援任务的完成,坚决做好售后服务和保障工作,履行军工企业服务国家、服务社会、服务人民的神圣职责,完成党和国家交给的抗灾抢险任务。(许国荣)

8K!

我航空救生部队首次参加抗震救灾

特约记者 伍轶 记者 谭洁
2008-05-16 20:07:15 来源:中国军网

我航空救生部队形成战斗力后首次在抗震救灾一线亮相,便以其高超的专业技能和先进的搜救装备大展身手,迅速搭建起抢救生命的空中通道。今天下午,记者登上某型专业搜救直升机,紧急飞赴地震重灾区绵竹运送物资和抢运伤员。

起飞!直升机拔地而起。"看,我们正在沿着这条红线飞。"
领航员段延超指着驾驶舱右下方的多普勒导航计算机告诉记者,陌生空域和航线都难不住他们,只要将着陆点的经纬度输入,沿着电子地图上的航线飞。

一望无际的云海、座座高山翠绿的褶皱间,直升机灵活地钻着山沟。这时,透过舷窗望去,白茫茫一片,能见度越来越低。"我们有明亮的眼睛--气象雷达,能显示一两百公里以外的气象情况。气象条件再恶劣也有充足的时间避开危险区域。专业搜救直升机上的应急飘浮系统,还可以使飞机出现险情后在水面上飘浮半小时。"团长李春辉镇定自若地说。

没有地面引导,没有对空指挥,茫茫大山中,如何保持信息畅通、准确搜索目标、确定机降位置?空中机械师张世峰不慌不忙在"对空广播"上插上话筒,开始向地面广播和喊话。"先进通信手段还有不少,紧急情况下可以用救生电台保持空地联络。"
他同时启动红外成像设备上下左右360度旋转搜索目标。"发现目标,准备降落!"

直升机平稳降落在重灾区的一块平地上,旋翼飞转,掀起阵阵旋风……等候已久的灾区群众马上聚集上来,开始紧张工作,随即,飞机盘旋升空,翻越一座座山岭,直飞成都。

截至目前,该团分布在2个机场4个机型战机已经出动23个架次,运送16名医护人员到灾区,成功运出58名受伤群众,给灾区带去了近10吨药品和食品等物资。

(中国军网成都5月16日电)

总参增调90余架直升机往灾区救援
因为天气转好,而且由于现场的道路情况短时间内无法改善,无论救援人员物资的的运送还是重伤员的转移,直升机都是最好的工具,因此总参从各军区调配90余架直升机,加上民航调派的估计有100多架直升机会加入救灾行列。

希望这次灾难能让我军及民航能更加的重视直升机建设,更多!更快!更强!

米-26今晨南下入川救灾
超大型直升机出动救灾http://www.huanqiu.com 来源:哈尔滨新闻网
正在加格达奇执行任务的国内目前唯一一架世界最大的直升机——米26直升机于昨晚返哈,经过短暂的检修维护后,今晨起程南下

哈尔滨新闻网讯(吴庆梅 黄丽娟 记者
王方遒)昨天下午2时许,两架直9直升机从哈飞机场腾空而起,奔赴4000多公里之外的四川地震灾区。作为哈尔滨飞机工业集团赴四川抗震救灾机队的"先行官",它们将与其他5位"同门兄弟"一起投身抗震救灾战斗。

根据中国民航局部署,哈飞将派出7架(首批派出4架)直升机赴川接受国家抗震救灾指挥部调遣。

14日下午接到民航局调度命令后,哈飞立即决定由集团所属飞龙专业航空公司执行这一任务。昨天中午11时30分,7110号直9直升机从内蒙古扎兰屯赶回。维修和检修后,就同另一架直9紧急南飞。

同日下午,飞龙公司一架正在吉林执行任务的小松鼠直升机已直接赶往四川广汉机场。正在加格达奇执行任务的国内目前唯一一架世界最大的直升机——米26直升机于昨晚返哈,经过短暂的检修维护后,将于今晨起程南下。南下"第二梯队"也将在最快的时间集结到位,飞赴抗震救灾第一线。

另悉,目前有多架哈飞生产的飞机、直升机和三角翼飞行器奋战在四川抗震救灾一线。除直9系列直升机积极参与人员、物资运送外,运12系列通用飞机和三角翼飞行器也参与了空中遥感和观测等任务,为抗震救灾指挥安上了"千里眼"。

全军就12个陆航团,除去轻型直升机这次家底也抽的差不多了
南空搜救团和15军直8KA也已经上了

一、征用以下单位的部分直升机参加抗震救灾行动:东方通用航空公司米171、S76 或S92 等型直升机共计6架;江苏华宇通用航空公司A119、米171 等型直升机2 架;中信海洋直升机股份有限公司AS332、EC155、EC225、S365等型直升机12 架(其中备份1 架);南航珠海直升机分公司S76型直升机6 架(其中备份1 架);哈尔滨飞龙专业航空公司米8、米26、直九等型直升机6 架(其中备份2 架);新疆开元通用航空公司米8 直升机2 架,共征用30 架,备份4 架原地待命。

You can see that PLA is sending 8 Z-8K from the 26th division and 4 Z-8KA from the 15th army over. Z-8K serves the role of SAR in PLAAF, whereas Z-8KA seems like heavy transports(don't have the SAR equipments). From what I can see, Z-8K series seems to be the domestic extension of Z-8F. Although not mentioned in the above quote, they sent out many of their Mi-8, Mi-171 and S-70 for this rescue mission. HAMC even sent a couple of their Z-9s + China's only Mi-26 over their to do relief. Including the 30 SAR helicopters of civilian ministries, 1/5 of all Chinese helicopters have been sent to disaster relief. Even so, they only have about 110 helicopters in the area and the sortie rate according to most people isn't so great. And worst of all, some of these helicopters, including Mi-26, are not even flown by Chinese. This disaster in many ways really have shown the weakness in PLA's helicopter force. PLAAF certainly needs to not only build up its helicopter force but also train the pilots needed to operate them.

With Mi-171 being so prominent in the recent rescue efforts, it really shows that China made a good decision in getting the local assembly for the helicopter. I suppose they will continue to build Z-8Ks, but it really doesn't make too much sense in the future to have both platforms unless Z-8s are specifically built for PLAN.

Aside of that, just some of the pictures from the past week. The third hull of Yuan is now in sea trials. Here are some of the photos for it.



And here are some pictures of 810, the minesweeper


And finally, 774 might be coming back to service soon.

Monday, May 12, 2008

Updates from the past week

Before we start going through some of the news from the past week, I'd first like to send my prayers and condolences to the victims of cyclone in Myanmar and the victims of the huge earthquake in Sichuan province.

Today, we just heard about the Mi-171 deal concluding with a company in Sichuan doing the assembly. As we mentioned in this blog, we first about this plan in one of the posters of this company. We also saw a picture of the first assembled Mi-171 on a Kanwa article last year. At the time, Kanwa was speculating that this deal may not go through because Russians are fearful that China would create another J-11B situation. However, from this report, it's clear that China has received a Z-9 type of deal where it could the rights to eventually produce everything locally and exporting the planes to third countries. The company that's doing the assembly was already doing maintenance and repairs for Mi-8/17 helicopters in PLA. Therefore, it shouldn't be a surprise it can raise the production to 20 for this year. The IL-76 problem didn't affect this deal, because China is still importing this under the civilian guise. China had been importing civilian Mi-17 variants and converting them to military version for the past few batches. They will probably still be getting the "civilian kits" (whatever that means) and modifying it to be able to fire rockets and such. If the production rate of Mi-171 does eventually reach 80, it certainly would represent quite an enhancement to PLA aviation. This deal probably also means that new Z-8 units will mostly be used for the navy. Recently, we had a picture of 920 medical ship with Z-8, so it seems like many of the large newly built ships will be getting new Z-8Ks. Therefore, this deal should also help the helicopter shortage situation with PLAN aviation. This deal also reminds me the recent Sokol helicopter deal, because of the way foreign helicopters were favored over domestic helicopters. In both cases, the foreign helicopter (Mi-171) got a huge local production contract due to their much lower cost rather than their technology level. Of course, the local helicopters in both cases are more expensive, because they were originally French helicopters. As mentioned in the past, Kazan/Ulan-Ude have basically cornered China's medium to super heavy transport helicopter market with Mi-17, Mi-26 and possibly Mi-38. The super light to medium helicopter market are all West assisted/inspired design or local production of Western designs. (including S-300, EC-120, Z-11, Sokol, CA-109, Z-9, Z-10, Z-15, 10 ton helicopter). We certainly have a clearer view of future of helicopter in PLA than we did a couple years ago. The only projects that I'm waiting for are Z-15, 10 ton helicopter and Mi-38.

Another interesting piece of news that came out today is the sale of K-8 to Venezuela. We also heard recently that China sold 12 K-8s to Zimbabwe and 6 already arrived in the country. K-8 has certainly become of one of China's leading export items. I guess it provides some hope for the L-15 project, because K-8 started out without any contract from China or Pakistan. Maybe in a couple of years, Hongdu will be able to win over the PLA brass with L-15 as it did with K-8. Countries like Venezuela, Egypt and Pakistan will certainly be more likely to buy L-15 after inducting K-8s.

The other big news is that SAC guarantees the large transport will have first flight by 2012. From all sources I have went through recently, it seems like this will be the domestic version of IL-76. There have been some speculations about transport with 60 ton capacity like C-17. It seems like SAC may have more than one project going. A Chinese IL-76 is the safe design that will be able to go in service relatively quickly (probably before 2015). They are also working on another design that will be more advanced, but probably would not go in service until 2020. From the numerous sources that I read, it seems like they are not only familiar with IL-76 design (after using it and maintaining it for so long), but also have the blue prints, some of the personnel and the necessary technology needed to set up production in SAC. In fact, one of the big shrimps on Chinese bbs recently said that the IL-76 factory in Kazakhstan provided this to China as a response to what they view as Russia trying to squeeze them out of IL-76 production (by moving all production to Russia). The large bypass turbofan engine project based on WS-10A is not that far away from completing and should be better than D-30 series (probably at PS-90 level).

The other engine news coming out recently is that WS-13 finished long duration test last year. It will probably take off with JF-17 this year and achieve design certification by 2009. Once it gets the production certification, China will have no more need/headache for RD-93. Note, they also have the WS-12 project ongoing which is in the same weight class, but a completely new design.

On the naval side of things, we saw some new pictures of F-22P coming out recently. It only confirmed the previous notion that FM-90N is the SAM for F-22P. We can see the launchers and the FCR for it installed since the last set of photos.



The more interesting news that came out is with regards to the new 130 MM naval gun. People often saying that China is not open enough, but this one is an example of how a yet to be seen weapon system is mentioned in an official source.
Zhou Bingwu (left) studying together with other technical personnel on compatible fire plans of naval gun.
  The reporters learnt recently from a military representative office of the Armament Department of the PLA Navy that Zhou Bingwu, a senior engineer of this office, has tackled problems in key technologies, such as shell cases got jammed in gun barrel, and enabled one naval gun barrel to fire different types of artillery shells with different calibers, and realized automatic loading of separate-loading ammunition. At the end of April, this achievement passed the technical evaluation after it was put to test in a live ammunition range practice.

  The naval gun experts at the range located at the northern foot of the Yin Mountain were amazed at this achievement, and they held that this achievement would turn naval gun into a multifunctional launching platform and make the gun be able to launch precise attack against long- and middle-distance targets automatically and from multi-directions, thus it is going to bring new life to naval guns. Cai Yuquan, leader of the naval gun expert team excitedly said, "This achievement has filled a technical blank in naval gun's firing field." At present, this achievement is in the process of applying for national scientific and technological innovation award.

  Zhou Bingwu is over 50 years of age now and he started to carry out research on naval gun in 1993. Fiver years ago, he went to Beijing to report to the higher level on his research program of firing multi-types of shells with a single naval gun. In early 2005, the application for the development of a new type of large caliber ship-gun was approved, and a military-civilian joint research task force was established accordingly.

  By Deng Xianwei and Jiang Ming

  (May 8, PLA Daily) Editor: Fan Aifeng

The Chinese version of this article is similar, but also mentions that the shells are guided. It seems like this gun is being prepared for the new generation of destroyers that will start production in the near future. It will certainly be superior to the 100 mm and the 76 mm currently serving on the newer ships. It should be superior to existing PLAN guns in anti-surface warfare, land attack and also serve as CIWS in front of Type 730s. I have also read about the development of a 155 mm naval gun similar to the AGS (advance gun system) of DDG-1000.

And finally, we read about HH-9 and RIF-M engaging in training exercises recently. RIF-M hit all 6 targets in the test trial. The description of HH-9 tests were harder to decipher, but it seems like HH-9 was able to hit sea-skimming targets, BVR targets and concurrent engagements. The sea-skimming test was especially interesting, because the drone was wobbling (after loosing control of itself) toward the sea and HH-9 missile struck it as it entered the water. It stated the FCR tracked it, suddenly lost the track, tracked it again and then fired the missile to hit it. Apparently, this entire sequence from the tracking to destroying the targets took 10 to 20 seconds (he actually stated 1x seconds). If the entire process took closer to the 10 second marks, then I would think that is very good time for tracking, reacting, launching preparation, firing off and flight to the target. The Chinese are generally very pleased with the performance of HH-9.

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Thinking outside the box

I think I'm going to talk about something a little different today. As we know, China has often been listed as America's most likely adversary in the future. I have often regarded military technology as the least of America's problems when considering China's new found economic strength.

The one threat that people have always brought up as China's leverage against America is the vast holding of gov't and agency bonds that China has invested in America. I think we've also heard about their investment into Black Rock (which has been a horrible investment) and Morgan Stanley. And with the currency appreciation being far more than the coupon rates, the actual rate of return is actually in the negatives. So, there is no question that Chinese sovereign fund would do a lot better buying Euros, Yens, minerals and other assets that are relatively liquid. People have called the threat of selling the holdings as a "financial/money nuke" against America as the biggest economic threat. Some have even advocated the idea of just voiding any of the holdings that China has in America. I disagree with both ideas and I will explain why. As anyone that deals with Fixed Income would know, there is a rating system by S&P and Moody for all bonds. US Treasury bonds is rated as AAA, because it is thought to be the safest of all investments. Consider this, UK treasury is AA rated despite also being considered risk free (I could be wrong on this). Either way, such a huge cancellation of bonds will certainly drop the rating of US Treasury bonds. With such a move, any financial firm in America that deals with bonds would have to re-engineer many models of programs that are predicated on the assumption US Treasury is AAA rated. A trouble in the ratings of US treasury bonds would immediately hit the values of any currently held US treasuries. The largest problem probably resides in the fact that the coupon rates for US Treasury would have to be raised (in general, yield is determined by the liquidity and risk factor of a bond) due to the higher risk factor. At the same time, with the loss of one of the biggest holders, the liquidity of US Treasury would also go down by a bit. The net result of cancellation of 300 billion USD worth of bond would be having to offer higher coupon rates (by maybe 50 to 100 basis point?) for the near future. Considering how much Treasury is in circulation to cover the US national debt (10 trillion). having to pay 4.5 or 5% instead of 4% would increase the value of coupon payments by over 10%. That would be an extra 50 to 100 billion in coupon payments per year. Over the long run, it's simply a loosing proposition to make such a move. Having covered that, let's look at the even bigger issue.

I know a lot of people think Ron Paul is crazy, but working in the financial field for the past year and half have made me realize a lot of stuff he says is actually valid. I think we all know about the huge national debt and the operating deficit of America. A typical excuse I often hear is that America was okay in the Regan years despite having higher operating deficit to GDP ratio. However, there is also the problem of paying for the social security program and retired gov't workers that people seem to ignore. If you divide that cost amongst average American families, you'd know how much money we each owe. So, the only way to possibly get past this is further debasing the currency by injecting more liquidity (printing money out of the thin air as Ron Paul calls). What people don't realize is that the money supply in America is expanding at a much faster rate than the productivity. So, that's why you see this huge devaluation in the currency and the inflation in food and gas. US Dollar became the dominant currency after WWII because it was the only currency tied to Gold. All the European countries also tied their currency to USD, so it would in effect also be tied to gold. Let's face it, how do you trust a piece of paper that your gov't forces you to use if there is nothing behind it? As a side note, if you collect all of your wealth in Nickels and melt that, you would actually end up with more money from selling the metals making up the nickels. (yep, each nickel is worth around 7 cent. So the treasury is spending more money to make less money, go figure that out) Aside from my snide comments, the strength of a currency is always weakened when the good/mineral backing the currency is weakened. This normally happens in wartime when the gov't needs to deflate the money to pay for debts. So, what happened to the link to the gold standard? Up until 1971, central banks traded gold amongst themselves at the value of $35 an ounce. Since this was not market based (not traded amongst the public), we got a problem where the liquidity in market far exceeded the amount of Fed holdings of gold x $35/ounce. So when the French came in 1971 and demanded gold for $35/ounce, Nixon simply said we don't have that much gold. The gold standard was dropped, so there really is nothing behind USD at the moment. Now, we can see from the history that many countries rose to prominence with the usage of gold or other rare-mineral to back their currency. This was true in the case of Persian empire, Alexander the Great, the Romans, British Empire and America. So, you might have asked by now how this has anything to do with China? Well, the reason is that some people are speculating a move by China toward gold standard. Of course, it doesn't seem to conform with the official policy of keeping currency lower for more exports. We do know that China has been a huge buyer of gold recently and that it has also become the world's top producer of gold (even more than South Africa). One might think that China is doing this as a better investment (and that's true), but you cannot think about what might happen if an economy as influential as the Chinese one is linked to the gold standard. Of note, it's generally believed that the official gold reserves reported by China is vastly less than what it actually has. Then, it would not be too much of a surprise that Yuan might surpass USD and Euro as the dominant currency in the future. I don't think one can underestimate such financial power.

I know this is an interesting change of topic for this blog, but I thought it might be a good time to change the focus a little bit and look at things from different angle. Of course, I'm not a financial expert by any stretch of imagination, so I'm sure a lot of you would disagree with what I wrote. Well, I will go back to my regular military stuff in the near future.

Saturday, May 3, 2008

094 + Y-8 High New Series

So recently, we've seen an article on Telegraph, UK newspaper, regarding 094 that seemed to have blown a little out of proportion, you can see it here.

What bugs me is not that they are showing this, but indicating that this was such an amazing find. First of all, this really is not a secret base as they indicate. It's clear that Sanya is one of the 4 major naval bases for the South Sea Fleet. And as we've seen with the pictures of Hu Jintao visiting the base recently, it is not the super secretive naval base that is described here. In fact, this is the only South Sea Fleet base that most PLAN watchers probably have heard of. Of course, when 093/094 was being assigned to the South Sea Fleet, this is the most logic base that it would be assigned to. And it is also apparent to any PLAN watcher that this was the most logical fleet to assign the new nuclear submarines to. With Taiwan right next to the ESF, it's clear that you'd want to put the latest conventional submarines there. With NSF already having the first generation nuclear submarines and the powerful JMSDF right next to it, it's clear that you probably don't want to put more attack subs there. That is exactly why all of us expect any of the power projecting platforms to go to SSF. Contrary to what is mentioned in this article, putting these units in SSF actually would put them further away from the major naval powers of the theater (USN, JMSDF, ROKN, ROCN) rather than closer. The part that makes the least sense is their idea that PLAN would keep their nuclear submarines in these shelters. As any naval analyst would tell you, it does no good to keep the nuclear submarines at the base. USN certainly doesn't become the most powerful navy in the world by not going out to the seas.

Sinodefense has recently posted an entry for the High New projects with PLA, you can find them here.

While it does a good job of going through all of the planes in the High New series, I think Huitong did a better of presenting them on his site. With a lot of pictures coming out for the High New Series recently, I thought I'd do an analysis of what I think each High New plane does.

High New 1:

I guess this variant is mainly thought to be the ECM variant, because it replaced HD-5 in the 29th regiment of 10th division (as evident by 21x1x serial number). I also speculated in the past that it might be SAR variant due to the canoe-shape radome under the fuselage that looks like SAR under Tu-154. Like most other high new aircraft, this airframe is based on Y-8F400.

High New 2:

So far, I have pictures for 9351, 9361 and 9527. So clearly, this is serving for PLANAF in one of the independent regiments. Right from the start, this has been identified as an ELINT aircraft (Maybe using some technology from EP-3). As mentioned several posts ago, a simplified version of this with KZ-800 ELINT system has been offered for export.

High New 3:

This one has been identified as the command post variant of Y-8. I don't think they need too many of this variant and we certainly have only seen 30721 so far. It's part of the 21th division. I don't think there is much more I can say about this.

High New 4:

This one has been identified as a JSTARS variant by some and ECM variant by others. I personally think that it is more like a JSTARS variant, because of the fact that it's radar provides 360 degree coverage and looks like the one on 052C. I'm not sure if an ECM variant would have something like that. In addition, it doesn't make much sense for PLAAF to have two different variants of High New series doing exactly the same thing. However, having both High New 1 and 4 in the same regiment supports the theory that they are both ECM planes.

High New 5:


Also known as KJ-200, this is probably the most well known variant of the high new series. And it is also the only one that uses the Y-8F600 platform. You can identify the Y-8 planes built specifically for KJ-200 by counting the number of blades on the propellers. We know that one of the KJ-200 unit built on Y-8F600 crashed in 2006, that might have set the program back a little bit. We also know that the original KJ-200 prototype was on a Y-8F200 platform. It's believed that KJ-200 with join the 26th division in PLAAF like KJ-2000. The pictures above shows the latest KJ-200 on Y-8F600 platform that just joined PLAAF. I've always thought that there are more than 2 units of KJ-200 from reports of PLAN exercises, but all the photos only support the 2 units theory.

High New 6:
This is widely believed to be the ASW variant of Y-8. I saw a couple of photos recently that I speculate to be 6, but I'm not sure.


It doesn't look like any of the other High New series aircrafts and sorts of remind me of Y-8X. Y-8X is the Y-8 MPA currently serving for PLAN.

High New 7:

This is the latest variant that we've seen. It's speculated to be conducting psychological warfare due to its similar appearance to EC-130E.

So, that's pretty much the list. I've also read about High New 8 under development + Y-7 ASW plane. Both of these seem to have enough air under them to be legitimate. So, I guess we are just waiting for more photos.