Saturday, May 19, 2007

What is left for Russia to export to China?

So, with the recent IL-76 controversy, I compiled a list of things I think China still might buy from Russia.

Land Force:
Not sure really - China never did import that much in this area.

Air Defense:
So, there is another 8 S-300PMU2 battalion order. After that, there is the S-400 system and the S-300V. At this point, I think there is still possibility of another purchase toward either S-400 or S-300V, especially since China needs to develop a NMD system. How far the domestic system in HQ-9 has come in ABM capability is unknown, but I would think not as much as S-300V. Tor-M1 discussions pretty much ended for good a few months ago. Buk-M1 has never been in consideration.

Air Force:
Transport/Tanker - I still think China will eventually settle on IL-76 or one of the large Antonov transports for another order before their own large transport gets developed. Clearly, the existing IL-76s are needed to be converted into KJ-2000, so they do lack large transports. And H-6U is not really ideal as the tanker.
AAMs - can't see any future purchases here.
Ground attack munitions - again, can't see any future purchases here unless for su-30s
Fighters - I think they might go ahead with upgrading some of their existing flankers. I don't think it makes a lot of sense for them to purchase su-34/35 at this point, since the domestic J-11 projects seem to be finally bearing fruits.
Bombers - Unless it's Tu-160, I doubt there will be anything. China clearly has no interest in Tu-22M and Tu-95
Avionics - Possibly upgrading su-30 with Irbis (as mentionned in JDW a while back)
Engine - Possibly another AL-31 order after this, but it really depends on how well WS-10A is going. I think RD-93 is definitely stopping after this first 150 engine order.
Helicopter - possibly some more sales of Mi17 and Mi-26, but that's about it

Navy:
Submarines - looks like they are not interested in any more Russian subs. Amur was offered, but it seems like China is more interested in their own next generation SSK. Nuclear sub technology could be one area where China gets help from, but it's not clear how much such technology have been offered.

ASW/Torpedo - They will need more Ka-28 until Z-15 naval version or the 10 tonne helo is ready. Yu-6 finally seems to have achieved a certain level and the imported Test torpedoes seem to not be used on any of the domestic submarines. I think that's a sign of the confidence to Yu-6. Be-200 order was mentionned last year, hasn't mentionned more since, but I think it will go through, since they need a replacement for SH-5.

Destroyers/Frigates - No more orders imo, although possibly upgrading the first two Sovs to using the later versions of Moskit and shtil.

Other ships - Possibly a replenishment ship or hospital ship. But Zubr orders are going through imo.

Aircraft Carrier - some assistance on Carrier operation and parts needed + a couple of su-33s, I don't even think they will extend the order to 14.

Missiles - Not more AShM, they had problems firing klub according to a recent article I read. The Russian SAMs are not likely to get any orders since HH-9/16 seem to be standard for future Destroyers/frigates.

1 comment:

Joseph Tan said...

1) Udaloy II -class ASW

2) Ka- 27 / 28/ 31 Helix ASW
helicopter