Monday, December 29, 2008

PLAN - Review of 2008

As we approach 2009, it's time to look back at 2008 in the PLAN world and look forward to what might transpire in 2009. Last year, I took a look at how much PLAN has improved in the past 5 years. I don't think I will need to do that again. Frankly, PLAN improved so much in that 5 year period that it is impossible for it to make an equivalent leap in the next 5 years. As a result of this, this report will be a more abbreviated version.

To recap, some of my predictions from last year didn't turn out so well. In particular, the much anticipated 052D class did not show up at all this year. Although, I have read that work on it has already started in Shanghai, we just haven't seen any pictures yet. And from the new location of JiangNan, it's clear that pictures of 052D will not come as frequently or as clearly as the pictures for 052B/C and 054/A. Right now, we see a lot of overhead shots of the JiangNan shipyard (because everything is taken from aerial view) and a lot of guesses on what each of the ships are. Fortunately, HuDong shipyard still hasn't moved to the new location in Changxin, so its pictures are still frequent. As usual, pictures from HuangPu shipyard, Dalian shipyard and Wuhan shipyard are still frequent and very detailed. Even the extremely secretive nuclear submarine shipyards in Huludao cannot avoid those overhead satellite shots as evidence in those google earth images of 094s. These pictures are the reason that PLAN is the most transparent of four major PLA branches (my personal transparency rank is Navy, then army, then air force and finally second artillery).

In terms of new construction, this year was definitely a lot slower than 2007. In many ways, I consider it to be the slowest year since 2002. In 2003, we saw the 052Bs, 072-III class and 039G1s coming out. In 2004, we saw 052C, 054 and Qiandaohu class replenishment ship coming out. In 2005, we saw 051C, 022s and 039A coming out. In 2006, we saw 054A, 804 class MCM ships and YuanWang ships coming out. In 2007, we saw 071, 093/094, ELINT ship, 805 class MCM ship, Fuxianhu class replenishment ship coming out. Through this time, we also saw 2 Sovs and 8 636Ms inducted into PLAN. All we saw this year were slightly modified version of 039A, the Type 920 medical ship and a new submarine tender. All things considered, this year is not only a downer for the number of ships being built but also lacked the new exciting variants of past years. There are many reasons for this. We had the Olympics, which basically put a moratorium to construction for a few months. One of HuDong's massive cranes collapsed and it was also building 3 F-22Ps at the same time for PN, so HuDong only managed meager progress on a 054A. In fact, I was just thankful the crane didn't collapse on 054A. HuDong had been building 054A, 071 and MCMs in the past couple of years, so there was a huge drop in its deliveries to PLAN. JiangNan was finalizing on its move to Changxin Island, so the only progress we saw were a group of 022s. We've seen basically no work out of Dalian shipyard. For much of the year, the HuangPu shipyard seems to spent more time with tugboat rather than newer 054A. Wuhan shipyard has been working on 039A submarines, but clearly most of the military shipyards haven't done much this year. I think what we saw this year was PLAN finally getting some real work done with these new gadgets. They are trying to work on software with these newly found hardware. Among which, the 052B/Cs, 054As, 071 and 093/094 all joined forces in the Sanya base to form PLAN's most potent flotilla. In fact, I expect this base to be the primary base/headquarters of a future blue water fleet (China's version of 7th fleet and Honolulu base). You can even see that from the recent Somalia fleet. They are sending 169, 171 and 887 from this fleet with 169 and 171 to be replaced by 168 and 170 later. I've also read that 093 might accompany these ships on their way there. This kind of expeditions along with major live firing exercise in the past couple of years are the kind of training needed for the sailors to become experienced with these new ships.

So, what did we see and didn't see this year? We saw the second batch of 054A in Huangpu and HuDong shipyards toward the end of the year. At this point, we still do not know all of the changes on this ship, but we will definitely be following a lot of 054A next year. We saw at least 2 new 039As joining service this year and also a modified variant at works in Wuhan. However, all pictures surrounding this class disappeared by the second half of the year. We saw 866, the first of China's new Type 920 medical ship, joining the ESF. This was a surprise, because I expected it to join SSF to support long range operations, support islands in South China Sea and also do humanitarian relief missions. We also saw a new submarine tender, designed to operate LR-7, under works at Guangzhou shipyard. The need for a new ship in this class is very high with all the new submarines joining service, so we will be following this ship a lot next year. We also saw a lot of 022s in both HuangPu and the new JiangNan shipyard, so it looks like this class is still in mass production. At this point, I think no one knows exactly how many 022s are in service or will be in service. The number is very high and the production should probably wind down in the next couple of years. We continue to see new tugboats coming off the docks of HuangPu shipyard. It's almost astounding how many new units of this ship have came out. We saw the LCAC in the beginning on this year and not much after that. I'm guessing that it is entering service with 071 and we won't see much more of it. As mentioned before, we haven't seen the 052D class photo at all. We also did not see any action regarding to a second unit of 071 or a LPH. There might have been newer units of 805 class, but we didn't really see them outside HuDong shipyard. We saw one new type of Y-8, but did not see any pictures of the ASW/MPA version have already been ordered by the navy. We found out more about 054 series' ASW gear this year from pictures of TAS sonar on Jianghu and an interview with the capitain of 138. We found out that 054 not only has Towed array sonar as we long hoped for, but also may have something like the ASROC. We saw many some new export types of AShM being displayed in Zhuhai air show, but nothing resembling the long rumored supersonic ramjet propelled missile. We didn't see any news/pictures regarding to an AGS like naval gun, but have seen successful development of a new 130 mm gun for next line of destroyers. We have seen the much talked about FL-3000N in Zhuhai air show, but its presence there seems to indicate that it is for export. PLAN will probably continue on its pass of gun based CIWS for air defense. We saw newer gas turbine like QC-70 finishing development early this year and also indigenization of DA-80, which is already been used on at least on one of the 052B class ships. I'm personally looking for more gas turbines like QC-185, QC-260 and UGT-15000 on new ships. They may not happen this year, but their availability in the future would reduce the current bottleneck that PLAN faces for new ships. Getting the right motor has always been a problem for PLA whether it is for tanks, fighter jets, transports, helicopters or ships.

So, what am I looking forward to next year. The one that comes to my mind right away is 052D. It was probably overly ambitious of me to have expected to see photos of the ship coming out this year. I believe we will see pictures of this ship coming out next year, although not as fast and as furious as 052C pictures due to the remote location of the new JiangNan shipyard. Even though the quality of photos from this yard won't be as good, I'm eagerly waiting those photos to see the configuration for this ship. I've read some source speculating that this ship will be at least 1000 tonnes heavier and have more weapons loaded. Now that they've had a couple of years of experience with 052C, we should see a more loaded/combat design for the new ships. I'm also looking to see 054A in both HuDong and HuangPu shipyard. HD might be a little slow next year with more F-22P work and the crane problem, but HP should proceed smoothly now that tugboat and 022 production should slow down a little bit. I am eagerly waiting to see the weapon/sensory fit with these 054A units. We should also see more diesel submarines coming out next year. I don't know whether the newer units will look like the existing 039A or the one with modified hump. I suspect we will see more of the former, because 039A is now a relatively mature design, whereas the new one is likely to go through more testing. I'm sure there will also be more nuclear submarines, but it will be just as difficult to figure out how many will be produced. The other ships I'm waiting to see include more 071 class LPD, some signs of an LPH and a new 1500 tonne class ship to occupy the gap between 022 and 054A. I think we will finally see Y-7 or Y-8 based MPA next year that will be like China's P-3C. After focusing on ASuW, AAW and MCM in the past years, the ASW part of PLAN is finally coming out of ashes and showing up in new hardware. And as always, we saw new ships like the submarine tender, ELINT ship, new tugboats and Type 920 in the past 2 years, it will also be interesting to see newer types of auxiliary ships appearing next year. I guess the final one in mind is the aircraft carrier project. At this point, I don't expect to see any picture coming out of JiangNan that would be clear enough to discern an aircraft carrier. However, we can keep tabs on this project with all the news that are bound to come out. We received a lot of news this year regarding to the naval pilot school and possible su-33 purchase. I would expect more news like this to come out next year.

In conclusion, 2008 has been a quiet year compared to the past few years. The hiatus around Olympics, the specific conditions in several shipyards and possible problems caused by the snow storm early this year are all possible causes. I look forward to 2009 to be another important year as I believe many projects are about to start.

8 comments:

hbogyt said...

I find people on WAB keen on belittling Chinese intelligence.

Anyway. Do you think China would leapfrog the PESA stage altogether? I mean even Rafale has got a PESA, a fact that can't be explained as that they have low manufacturing precision.


People on WAB don't believe "big shrimps".

Feng said...

they could certainly leapfrog PESA, since that's what they did with AWACS. Why does it matter to you what people on WAB think? Bringing "big shrimps" into discussion is never a smart thing to do.

Jiang said...

Hi, Feng, it is nice to see you again. I just visited WAB( world affair board) and I find most of the news regarding China defence are full of BULL CRAP!!!Can you confirm that?? That place is infested with indians!!! and they all hold unfair altitude toward China.

Feng said...

don't go there if it upsets you. They are very cautious with new developments. I've had my arguments with them, but they can be reasonable if you present evidence.

visionary said...

OK! Feng.. All these military build up in Asia caused by the path of becoming a superpower both economically, politically and militarily. Fast forward to 2030.. How do you see Asian landscape changed?

hbogyt said...

Does Yuan Class Submarine have flank sonar arrays?
And, does Kilo have them?

visionary said...

My information says only Oyashio, Seawolf, virginia are the ones.. and new Russians that are beeing built now...

Feng said...

yuan class should have flanker array sonar.