Saturday, April 3, 2010

Interesting news about China/Israel/Iran

So, according to this article on times online, the Israelis actually made the unprecedented move to come to China to try to persuade Chinese support for sanctions. That in itself is nothing new, but the Israelis are basically saying that they will attack Iran's nuclear facilities and that all hell with break loose if they do. According to the article, they have even let a Chinese general to inspect their strike force to show that they are capable of accomplishing this mission. Basically if you've followed the commentaries of Robert Baer, the Israelis will move to take out the nuclear facilities if UN doesn't deliver on further sanction. Clearly, Israel regards this as existential threat (this entry is not to agree or disagree that point). Even so, it is still a curious strategy to straight out tell China that "you better help us, because we are so desperate that we will do something so dramatic that you will get hurt in the process and we don't care what anyone else thinks about it". It amounts to basically blackmailing the world's leading creditor.

I'm curious to see how China will react to this. I personally think they should support further sanctions in the hope of stopping this from escalating further into a wide conflict that would basically take a large part of Middle East oil out of commission. The world's economy is just recovering and can't handle a dramatic energy crisis like this. However, would supporting a harsher sanction right now stop the Iranians and appease the Israelis? What if the Israelis come back to ask for more sanctions if this round does not solve anything? These are all things that China needs to think about.

12 comments:

SINOGASS said...

According to RIA Novosti, Moscow delivers a batch of 15 S-300 for Beijing. But it's probably for Iran...

Feng said...

it's not for Iran. China put 8 of those batteries directly opposite to Taiwan. And the remaining 7 are placed around the country in the 4 major centers: Beijing, Shanghai, Pearl River Delta and Tri-gorges dam

timurelame said...

Will Iran buy JF-17?

Feng said...

does China dare to sell them JF-17, that's the question.

ming said...

at this point i don't feel its in china advantage to sell them the JF-17 if Israel strikes it'll be before JF-17 could even be delivered anyways, best to sort out this mess(if even possible) before any military deals could go through, Israelis' playing hardball hardly help at all. the oil comming from Iran is pretty vital for china even though SA say they would make up for the loss of irannian oil due to sanctions. but at the end of the day if they had convincing proof there wouldnt be this debate

also "and that all hell with break loose if they do."

should that "with" be "will"

timurelame said...

May be Iran can buy some Z-8s or Z-9s. Who can complain about that?

Hodotta said...

In my opinion it doesn't matter what China sells to Iran (JF-17, or SAMs) with the states and half of Europe backing Israel. We must also remember anything China can supply to Iran would be easily countered by Israels far more advanced western systems. F-16 soufa againt JF-17? I would put my money on F-16 everyday of the week. Not to mention their F-15's

Chuckles said...

As far as F-16 vs JF-17, I wouldn't underestimate the JF-17. Here's a quote from taimikhan at CDF:
"Well up til now as per internal sources of PAF, the pilots and PAF is very happy and satisfied with its performance. In simulated dog fights and training missions, the JF-17 has been beating the PAF older Blk 15 F-16s, which are considered one of the most maneuverable among the entire Block series of F-16s. Its radar performance is also very good compared to the older radars in the PAF F-16s, it has reduced the work load of the pilot a lot due to the glass cockpit and the many advanced features in its radar. The performance criteria can also judged from the fact that in the start all the pilots were shifted from the F-16 program to the JF-17 and when they were given an option to go back to the F-16 program as there was shortage of experienced pilots in the F-16s, the pilots refused to go back, as they were much more satisfied with the JF-17 compared to their previous love F-16s."

timurelame said...

Sell to the Iranians the ARJ21 and C919?

Mark Pyruz said...

There's the matter of Iran's defense doctrine based on deterrence.

Does the JF-17 offer much as a means of deterrence? (Personally, I don't think so.)

Or are resources better spent on increased numbers of Sejil MRBMs, SRBMs, AShMs, etc.

When considering JF-17 type weapon systems, one must include the purchase price, operating cost, training cost (and time) and additional maintenance costs. Then, consider the survivability of such a weapon system against an aggressor such as the USA.

By Iran's reckoning, it makes a LOT more sense to invest in SSMs than it does to invest in relatively expensive (one might even say "exotic") fighters and strike fighters. (At least that's how the Iranians see it.)

So "does China dare to sell them" isn't even relevant to this discussion.

Chuckles said...

Egypt express strong interest in acquiring the JF-17. Not just the plane themselves, but in setting up an assembly line to build them like Pakistan. So there's still a possibility of JF-17 meeting F-16 in combat.

TC said...

If ever long distance reckoning system worked in Iran, you can rely on SSM. but it seldomly does. Considering the amount of technicality of air defense, maybe one million AA guns are more reasonable.JF-17 is too complicated for them.