It's been a while since I posted due to work and personal commitments. Things haven't really stopped moving in the world of Chinese military, but it also hasn't been the most hectic spring season.
The biggest news from the past while is probably CV-16 (formerly Varyag) going on its first training exercise of the year out in the oceans. Since the take-off and landing tests in November of last year, they've been busy making preparations and training crew members in the naval aviation training facility close to Tianjin. There is a really nice thread here talking about the facility. From what we can see, the take-off and landing exercises in this second trip are done by the same two J-15 prototype aircraft that did the first one. Since J-15 has reportedly begun serial production, I was hoping to see more J-15 aircraft out in the ocean this time.
Other than that, Type 056 continues to be launched and commissioned into PLAN at a very fast pace. There have been at least 12 of them launched with at least 5 being commissioned. They are mostly replacing Type 037 currently in service with PLAN.
The production of Type 054A seems to be winding down. At least 15 have being commissioned now, with 3 more in HD shipyard that are in various stage of completion.
We are also seeing the unified Maritime Police fleet taking shape. Many of the larger cutters from CMS and FLEC have now been repainted and numbered into the new agency's colours.
And finally, I think one of the better articles I have read recently is this one by James Bussert. It's something I have been saying for a long time. You can see the scope of PLAN modernization by works done on their three weapon trial ships. For PLAN followers, this is the best place to look for what PLAN has in store.
Friday, June 28, 2013
Monday, May 6, 2013
PLAN amphibious development
For PLAN followers, the past couple of months have brought some really interesting developments for PLAN amphibious warfare. The first Zubr was handed over from Ukraine to China on April 20th and the construction of the second one is well under way. The original contract called for 2 to be built in Ukraine and the other 2 to be built in China. It remains to be seen whether or not PLAN will see the need to procure more than that.
Last year, we were introduced to a LHD design that Chinas was offering for export. A couple of months ago, we’ve seen this LHD design displayed for export to Turkey and also at Abu Dhabi. This mysterious design is said to be 211 m long, 32.6 m in beam and 26.8 m high for a displacement of 20,000 to 22,000 ton. It’s a little wider than Type 071 and has a flat top, so it can hold 8 helicopters with the hangar space for 4. This is an increase over Type 071, but I would imagine the first Chinese LHD (let’s call it Type 081) to be much larger than this (30,000 to 40,000 in displacement) and able to hold carry more helicopters and armored vehicles. I personally think PLAN has studied USMC long enough that it would also want the LHD to be able to support STOVL fighter jet. Such a ship would be much more complex than Type 071, but is well within the technical capabilities of Chinese shipyards.
More than anything else, the most interesting development for me to watch recently is the recent exercise involving 999, the second Type 071 ship, launching attack and overtaking a defended island in the South China Sea. While I’m sure this development scared a couple of people in the Phillipines and Vietnam, it was interesting seeing all of the news report videos talking about what they tried to do in that exercise. It was also interesting to see that Type 071 can carry more hardware than I previous thought. Its hangar is said to be able to carry 4 helicopters of Z-8 class (the main helicopter used with Type 071 right now). Its well deck can hold a maximum of 4 Type 726 LCAC. Although in reality, we’ve never seen more than 1 Type 726 and several fast attack boats in the well deck due to the fact that only 2 Type 726s have thus far been commissioned. Each of the Type 726 is said to be able to carry 2 IFVs and one tank. It can also apparently transport 80 soldiers. It can travel at 50 knots and can reach 55 to 60 knots. So, it’s an impressive hardware if China can build enough of it. In front of the well deck, there is also a door to a large compartment of 2 floors holding armored vehicles and other heavy machineries. We’ve also seen numerous photos of well deck holding 1 Type 726 along with 15 or more amphibious IFVs. Depending on the number of Type 726 and boats it carries, a Type 071 could hold different numbers of IFVs and tanks based on the mission. According to news report, Type 071 has allowed PLA to launch assault 40 nm from the beach.
In this recent exercise, we can really see PLAN practicing different kind of maneuvers and learning how to really use Type 071. Z-8s were used in flanking maneuvers to attack the rear along with Type 726 sometimes later. This is used to soften the opposition while amphibious IFVs and fast attack boats are storming the beach. The first Type 071 was commissioned at the end of 2007 and this was the first time we’ve heard about this type of exercise. Maybe this would have happened sooner if Type 726 was available earlier, but I think this also shows how long it takes PLAN to learn to start using a new ship like this. They still have a shortage of Z-8s and Type 726s when we consider how many Type 071 they already have. So they will have to ramp up the production of those assets if they want to continue training and developing more advance doctrines and tactics in storming a guarded coastline. They will also need more of those if they want to build a much larger LHD. Attention has been shifted away from PLAN’s amphibious build up over the past year due to the development of CV-16, but it remains an important part of PLAN modernization.
Last year, we were introduced to a LHD design that Chinas was offering for export. A couple of months ago, we’ve seen this LHD design displayed for export to Turkey and also at Abu Dhabi. This mysterious design is said to be 211 m long, 32.6 m in beam and 26.8 m high for a displacement of 20,000 to 22,000 ton. It’s a little wider than Type 071 and has a flat top, so it can hold 8 helicopters with the hangar space for 4. This is an increase over Type 071, but I would imagine the first Chinese LHD (let’s call it Type 081) to be much larger than this (30,000 to 40,000 in displacement) and able to hold carry more helicopters and armored vehicles. I personally think PLAN has studied USMC long enough that it would also want the LHD to be able to support STOVL fighter jet. Such a ship would be much more complex than Type 071, but is well within the technical capabilities of Chinese shipyards.
More than anything else, the most interesting development for me to watch recently is the recent exercise involving 999, the second Type 071 ship, launching attack and overtaking a defended island in the South China Sea. While I’m sure this development scared a couple of people in the Phillipines and Vietnam, it was interesting seeing all of the news report videos talking about what they tried to do in that exercise. It was also interesting to see that Type 071 can carry more hardware than I previous thought. Its hangar is said to be able to carry 4 helicopters of Z-8 class (the main helicopter used with Type 071 right now). Its well deck can hold a maximum of 4 Type 726 LCAC. Although in reality, we’ve never seen more than 1 Type 726 and several fast attack boats in the well deck due to the fact that only 2 Type 726s have thus far been commissioned. Each of the Type 726 is said to be able to carry 2 IFVs and one tank. It can also apparently transport 80 soldiers. It can travel at 50 knots and can reach 55 to 60 knots. So, it’s an impressive hardware if China can build enough of it. In front of the well deck, there is also a door to a large compartment of 2 floors holding armored vehicles and other heavy machineries. We’ve also seen numerous photos of well deck holding 1 Type 726 along with 15 or more amphibious IFVs. Depending on the number of Type 726 and boats it carries, a Type 071 could hold different numbers of IFVs and tanks based on the mission. According to news report, Type 071 has allowed PLA to launch assault 40 nm from the beach.
In this recent exercise, we can really see PLAN practicing different kind of maneuvers and learning how to really use Type 071. Z-8s were used in flanking maneuvers to attack the rear along with Type 726 sometimes later. This is used to soften the opposition while amphibious IFVs and fast attack boats are storming the beach. The first Type 071 was commissioned at the end of 2007 and this was the first time we’ve heard about this type of exercise. Maybe this would have happened sooner if Type 726 was available earlier, but I think this also shows how long it takes PLAN to learn to start using a new ship like this. They still have a shortage of Z-8s and Type 726s when we consider how many Type 071 they already have. So they will have to ramp up the production of those assets if they want to continue training and developing more advance doctrines and tactics in storming a guarded coastline. They will also need more of those if they want to build a much larger LHD. Attention has been shifted away from PLAN’s amphibious build up over the past year due to the development of CV-16, but it remains an important part of PLAN modernization.
Friday, March 29, 2013
What to make of speculated deals for Su-35/Lada?
In the past week,
there have been a lot of speculations regarding a deal where Russia would
export 24 Su-35s and 4 Ladas to China.
Now, there have been official denials from Russian government and sukhoi
has also not put this on their website.
That would indicate this deal is definitely not done yet. I normally would ignore these su-35 rumours
from Russia, but there have been enough support reading through the Chinese
sources for me to think that there are serious discussions for this. In addition, Chinese sources also indicate
that there could also be sale of S-400 and IL-476 as part of a large deal. Obviously, this would be the largest sale
package from China to Russia since probably 2002. I will just look at the individual parts of
the deal and whether they make sense from a Chinese point of view.
Back in 2008 when
the su-35 rumours first came out, it made sense for China to buy 2 or more
regiments of Su-35. As time went on, it
seemed like the domestic flankers produced by SAC have been more or less
satisfactory for PLA. I often read on
Western/Russian news sources about how they are shocked to see Russia is still
willing to sell such an advanced aircraft to China even after China “cloned”
Russian fighters, but those articles really do not seem to have a good grasp on
reality. We know that China has two
“stealth” fighter jet programs under development that will probably achieve IOC
sometimes toward the end of this decade, so it doesn’t make sense for China to
buy and then “copy” a large number of su-35s.
Shenyang AC is actively developing and producing naval and fighter
bomber versions of flankers in J-15 and J-16.
Su-35 is mostly an air superiority aircraft, so it’s not going to help
those projects. At the same time, China
is also not exporting any of its flankers to other countries, so this export
deal will not threaten Russia’s other export markets.
One of the reported
reasons from Chinese side for purchasing Su-35 is the coming end of production
of J-11B. They have requirement for 1
regiment (24 aircraft) of air superiority version of flankers before the more
advanced 5th generation fighters can enter service. While that is possible, I think su-35 will
create a logistical problem in the future like the Sov destroyers with the
Chinese navy. They will need to maintain
a new type of aircraft, a new engine, a new generation of Russian avionics and
Russian missiles. That would seem to be
a lot of trouble for just one regiment.
That would lead to my conclusion that they are purchasing this strictly
to get their hands on the 117S engine.
Russia made it clear to China early on that they would only be willing
to sell 117S to China as part of a Su-35 order.
I think 24 is probably the minimum number of Su-35s that Russia would be
willing to sell to China to allow Chinese access to 117S engine. China does have the largest MRO plant for
AL-31F outside of Russia. All
maintenance work for AL-31 is done inside China. I would assume 117S maintenance and life
extension work would also be done there.
Despite improvements in the reliability of WS-10A, I still read about
problems found in deployment. If there
is one problem that can cause real delay in J-20, it would be not having a reliable
engine solution in its development and early deployment. 117S would also be possible options for J-10
and J-15/16 projects. If China does
choose to purchase Su-35s, access to 117S engine would be the primary motivation. And Russia would benefit by exporting su-35
and possibly large numbers of 117S engine later.
The deal for 4 Lada
submarines is more interesting. Many
PLAN followers have asked why China would be interested in purchasing so many
units of a submarine that Russia has not even accepted into its own service
(its AIP system is not going to be ready until later). Typically, China chooses to only purchase
mature systems that it can quickly induct into service. On top of that, it seems to some that Chinese
submarines seem to have reached the technology levels of their Russian
counterpart with that mysterious new conventional submarine in 2011. The reality is that Chinese submarines still
have a way to go in stealth.
As part of this
deal, China will be getting transfer of technology along with local production
for 2 of the 4 submarines. On top of that,
some unreported Chinese subsystems will be going onto these submarines. So, the question is what is China providing
as part of this submarine and what is it interested in? The currently mass produced 039B submarine
are already equipped with AIP system that can be installed on the Chinese
version of Lada submarine. On top of
that, China could install its own sonar system and combat systems onto
Lada. The latter part should not be surprising
since China has also installed its own sonar on kilo submarines. What China seeks as part of this deal is the
Russian’s design of Lada submarine and its noise insulation technology. From Lada, China could learn how to design
and build a single hull submarine with conformal sonar. If we look at China’s new submarine that came
out in 2011, it seemed to adapt numerous features from Lada submarine. This submarine is supposedly one of a kind
built to replace the old Gulf class ballistic missile test bed. It is probably too large and expensive to be
mass produced. Based on their experience
from this submarine and Lada project, it’s quite possible that China’s next
series of submarine would look somewhere in between (possibly single hull) and
have many of the features currently on Lada class. Russia also has a lot to gain here, because
it needs a new submarine for export to replace kilo. Regardless of whether Russia chooses to use
any Chinese subsystems for Lada in the future, Chinese involvement in this
project will ensure that the export version of Lada becomes fully developed and
commercially viable.
So while I’ve read
numerous panic articles online about how this deal will significantly improve
China’s capabilities and shift the cross strait balance of power even more
toward China’s favour, I think those articles really show very little appreciation
of China’s current military industrial complex.
While these purchases will help and speed up PLA development, they are
by no means game changers. However,
these purchases will improve ties between the two countries at a time where
Russia constantly complains about the trade imbalance.
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Comparing Type 056 to LCS
With the recent induction of 056, a lot of comparison has been made between 056 and LCS. The comparisons are understandable. Both are just entering services. Both are expected to be built in large numbers and are also considered to be the lower end ships of their respective navy. In many ways, their comparison stops there, because Type 054A would be more comparable to LCS just based on the size and dimensions of the ships. I want to break this down to two sections: the differences in capabilities/cost between the two classes of ships and what that tells us about the two navies.
First of all, despite both ships are designed for littoral operations, one is designed to operate in its own waters, whereas the other is designed to operate in enemy waters. 056 is supposed to replace 053 and 037 in the role of patrolling coastal waters. It's equipped with enough strike power to conduct ASuW against other regional navy. With some modification, it can also be useful in ASW operations in the littoral waters. On the other hand, LCS is suppose to be faster, stealthier, far more modular and capable of operation in other country's littoral waters. USN has no need for something like 056, since it faces no foreign naval threat within its coastal waters. For any issues like smuggling, piracy and drug trafficking, it should be up to coastal guard to protect. At the same time, China has no need for a littoral ship as large or fast as LCS, because it really has no need in the near future for a ship built specifically to fight in the littoral waters of a non-neighbouring country. While most of the mission packages for LCS have yet to finish development, LCS will be capable of ASuW, ASW, MCM and special ops once that does happen. You might see more dedicated ASW or ASuW variants of Type 056 coming out, but each ship is really not expected to be doing more than one task.
As a result of this difference in roles and size of the ship, there is also a large gap in the cost of the ship. Each LCS cost over $400 million to build and equip. That's about twice as much as the cost of a Type 054A. Type 056 is expected to be a much cheaper ship than Type 054A, since it's much smaller. My current estimate for Type 056 is around around 60 million just based on the cost of Type 022, Type 054 and equivalent sized cutters (which run for about $15 to 20 million each). The relatively low cost of this should explain why China is able to build so many units in such short time while also build numerous other classes at the same time. If this cost more, China would not be able to use it to replace all of the old Type 053 and 037 ships. Despite the recent austerity in USN and the higher cost of American shipbuilding, USN still has a far higher budget than PLAN, so it could afford more expensive ships.
The size of crews also show us interesting things about the two navies. I think the crew size for LCS is supposed to be at most 75, whereas the much smaller 056 is expected to have 60 to 70 crews (even that is a reduction to 1/3 of Type 053). Even though Type 056 is far more complex and automated than the ships it is replacing, it's probably safe to say that it still lags modern Western ships. I think a large part of that has to do with the greater number of service personnels at the disposal of PLAN. Even with the rising labour cost in China, I think it's safe to assume that the compensation for a USN sailor is far higher than that of a PLAN sailor. Another part to look at is the huge leap facing sailors who are accustomed to operating a low tech ship like type 037 (I was told no training is required to be on that ship) to type 056. It's simply unrealistic to expect someone who has operated on Type 037/053 for their entire life to be able to be competent on something like LCS. As PLAN continues modernization, this expected improvement in software is often overlooked when one looks at the new ships that are coming out. The cost of training crew members will also go up as ships become more and more complicated.
Another interesting thing is the choice that the two navies made in developing these two ships. LCS is a ship expected to be modular enough to be able to easily reconfigure for different roles by changing to different mission packages. I expect different variants of Type 056 to come with each variant built with specific role in mind. Similary to Type 037, I would expect to see a Type 056 emphasize more toward ASW and one more emphasized toward patrol and another more emphasized toward ASuW. At the same time, LCS had the requirements to be able to travel at faster than 40 knots and also be extremely stealthy. It certainly pushes the technological envelope, whereas Type 056 does not. LCS is not only a new ship design but also requires new weapon system. Whereas PLAN rarely builds a shipping class that requires leap in both the ship design and its weapon system. I think this shows the background of both navies. USN always had a lot of money to spend, so it is willing to press for that additional performance on the newest ships in the face of budget overruns and delays. In comparison, PLAN had very little money back in the days and most of its programs was canned in the 80s and 90s due to lack of funding. So as a result of this, it has always been more conservative in incorporating improvement from one shipping class to the next. Compared to USN, PLAN is more frugal in the development of new ships and the management of its existing fleet. As an example, Type 052 underwent modernization recently, but the old HH-7 SAM was kept around instead of being replaced by more advance HQ-10 SAM. PLAN has a large stock of HH-7 missiles in stock and did not want them to go to waste by removing them from the ships undergoing modernization. It will be interesting to see how the perspectives of the two navies change in the future as PLAN continues to get more funding whereas USN starts to face austerity.
First of all, despite both ships are designed for littoral operations, one is designed to operate in its own waters, whereas the other is designed to operate in enemy waters. 056 is supposed to replace 053 and 037 in the role of patrolling coastal waters. It's equipped with enough strike power to conduct ASuW against other regional navy. With some modification, it can also be useful in ASW operations in the littoral waters. On the other hand, LCS is suppose to be faster, stealthier, far more modular and capable of operation in other country's littoral waters. USN has no need for something like 056, since it faces no foreign naval threat within its coastal waters. For any issues like smuggling, piracy and drug trafficking, it should be up to coastal guard to protect. At the same time, China has no need for a littoral ship as large or fast as LCS, because it really has no need in the near future for a ship built specifically to fight in the littoral waters of a non-neighbouring country. While most of the mission packages for LCS have yet to finish development, LCS will be capable of ASuW, ASW, MCM and special ops once that does happen. You might see more dedicated ASW or ASuW variants of Type 056 coming out, but each ship is really not expected to be doing more than one task.
As a result of this difference in roles and size of the ship, there is also a large gap in the cost of the ship. Each LCS cost over $400 million to build and equip. That's about twice as much as the cost of a Type 054A. Type 056 is expected to be a much cheaper ship than Type 054A, since it's much smaller. My current estimate for Type 056 is around around 60 million just based on the cost of Type 022, Type 054 and equivalent sized cutters (which run for about $15 to 20 million each). The relatively low cost of this should explain why China is able to build so many units in such short time while also build numerous other classes at the same time. If this cost more, China would not be able to use it to replace all of the old Type 053 and 037 ships. Despite the recent austerity in USN and the higher cost of American shipbuilding, USN still has a far higher budget than PLAN, so it could afford more expensive ships.
The size of crews also show us interesting things about the two navies. I think the crew size for LCS is supposed to be at most 75, whereas the much smaller 056 is expected to have 60 to 70 crews (even that is a reduction to 1/3 of Type 053). Even though Type 056 is far more complex and automated than the ships it is replacing, it's probably safe to say that it still lags modern Western ships. I think a large part of that has to do with the greater number of service personnels at the disposal of PLAN. Even with the rising labour cost in China, I think it's safe to assume that the compensation for a USN sailor is far higher than that of a PLAN sailor. Another part to look at is the huge leap facing sailors who are accustomed to operating a low tech ship like type 037 (I was told no training is required to be on that ship) to type 056. It's simply unrealistic to expect someone who has operated on Type 037/053 for their entire life to be able to be competent on something like LCS. As PLAN continues modernization, this expected improvement in software is often overlooked when one looks at the new ships that are coming out. The cost of training crew members will also go up as ships become more and more complicated.
Another interesting thing is the choice that the two navies made in developing these two ships. LCS is a ship expected to be modular enough to be able to easily reconfigure for different roles by changing to different mission packages. I expect different variants of Type 056 to come with each variant built with specific role in mind. Similary to Type 037, I would expect to see a Type 056 emphasize more toward ASW and one more emphasized toward patrol and another more emphasized toward ASuW. At the same time, LCS had the requirements to be able to travel at faster than 40 knots and also be extremely stealthy. It certainly pushes the technological envelope, whereas Type 056 does not. LCS is not only a new ship design but also requires new weapon system. Whereas PLAN rarely builds a shipping class that requires leap in both the ship design and its weapon system. I think this shows the background of both navies. USN always had a lot of money to spend, so it is willing to press for that additional performance on the newest ships in the face of budget overruns and delays. In comparison, PLAN had very little money back in the days and most of its programs was canned in the 80s and 90s due to lack of funding. So as a result of this, it has always been more conservative in incorporating improvement from one shipping class to the next. Compared to USN, PLAN is more frugal in the development of new ships and the management of its existing fleet. As an example, Type 052 underwent modernization recently, but the old HH-7 SAM was kept around instead of being replaced by more advance HQ-10 SAM. PLAN has a large stock of HH-7 missiles in stock and did not want them to go to waste by removing them from the ships undergoing modernization. It will be interesting to see how the perspectives of the two navies change in the future as PLAN continues to get more funding whereas USN starts to face austerity.
Saturday, March 2, 2013
A little write up on 056
I did a little write up today for Type 056 and here it is.
The first 056 class No. 582 was officially handed over to PLAN on the 25th of February as Wu Shengli, Commander of PLAN personally came to inspect the ship. While it is referred to as light frigate by Chinese news, it really should be classified as a corvette or OPV based on its size and displacements. This class is expected to be the next mass produced PLAN shipping class.
The type 056 class fills the gap between the 4000-ton 054A class frigate and 220-ton 022 class FAC. As of now, at least 9 other 056s have already been launched by the 4 shipyards building them. The overall number of this class is expected to be between the final count of 054A (probably around 20) and 022 (around 80). They are expected to replace the 10 Type 053 class Jianghu frigates currently serving in the South China Sea Patrol flotilla and the close to 50 Type 037 class missile boats.
In many ways, the type 056 hull is based on the Pattani class OPV that China built for Thailand from 2005 to 2006, although more signature reduction work is done such as the shielding of the funnels. Currently, 056 is equipped with 4 YJ-83s and AK-176M for ASuW missions along with a 8-cell HQ-10, AK-176M and two automated new single 30-mm barrel CIWS for self defense. Although the first few ships are not fitted with Towed Array sonar, it could provide some support for near sea ASW missions with a helipad large enough to hold Z-9C (and possibly Z-15 in the future), appearance of bow sonar bulb and 6 torpedo tubes installed in what looked to be the hangar. Most likely, the earliest 056 units will be used to replace Type 037s in the Hong Kong garrison and green water patrol missions. I expect a good number of Type 056 to eventually be used to patrol the disputed areas in South China Sea. Compared to the ships it is replacing, Type 056 requires 1/3 of the crew size of Jianghu class while offering more punch and similar endurance. Compared to Type 037, it should have better endurance, seakeeping and far stronger ASuW and AAW capabilities. It should be able to handle the naval threats from neighboring countries like Vietnam, Phillipines and Thailand. The goal is to free up larger ships like the Type 054A class and Type 052C/D class for blue water missions. In the future, I could also see ASW variants of Type 056 replacing the Type 037 sub chasers and more dedicated patrol versions of Type 056 with hangar large enough to hold 2 S-100 size UAVs.
The first 056 class No. 582 was officially handed over to PLAN on the 25th of February as Wu Shengli, Commander of PLAN personally came to inspect the ship. While it is referred to as light frigate by Chinese news, it really should be classified as a corvette or OPV based on its size and displacements. This class is expected to be the next mass produced PLAN shipping class.
The type 056 class fills the gap between the 4000-ton 054A class frigate and 220-ton 022 class FAC. As of now, at least 9 other 056s have already been launched by the 4 shipyards building them. The overall number of this class is expected to be between the final count of 054A (probably around 20) and 022 (around 80). They are expected to replace the 10 Type 053 class Jianghu frigates currently serving in the South China Sea Patrol flotilla and the close to 50 Type 037 class missile boats.
In many ways, the type 056 hull is based on the Pattani class OPV that China built for Thailand from 2005 to 2006, although more signature reduction work is done such as the shielding of the funnels. Currently, 056 is equipped with 4 YJ-83s and AK-176M for ASuW missions along with a 8-cell HQ-10, AK-176M and two automated new single 30-mm barrel CIWS for self defense. Although the first few ships are not fitted with Towed Array sonar, it could provide some support for near sea ASW missions with a helipad large enough to hold Z-9C (and possibly Z-15 in the future), appearance of bow sonar bulb and 6 torpedo tubes installed in what looked to be the hangar. Most likely, the earliest 056 units will be used to replace Type 037s in the Hong Kong garrison and green water patrol missions. I expect a good number of Type 056 to eventually be used to patrol the disputed areas in South China Sea. Compared to the ships it is replacing, Type 056 requires 1/3 of the crew size of Jianghu class while offering more punch and similar endurance. Compared to Type 037, it should have better endurance, seakeeping and far stronger ASuW and AAW capabilities. It should be able to handle the naval threats from neighboring countries like Vietnam, Phillipines and Thailand. The goal is to free up larger ships like the Type 054A class and Type 052C/D class for blue water missions. In the future, I could also see ASW variants of Type 056 replacing the Type 037 sub chasers and more dedicated patrol versions of Type 056 with hangar large enough to hold 2 S-100 size UAVs.
Thursday, February 21, 2013
A good article regarding YJ-8 series of Anti-ship missiles
I was contacted recently about this article on YJ-8 series of anti-ship missiles. I read it and found it to be very well written on the proper designations of different domestic and export missiles. I've long talked about the non-existence of C-803 and I'm glad that this article addresses that topic quite well. Aside from that, it also does a good job of exploring the actual capabilities of each missiles. While one may agree or disagree with the author's assessment, it certainly shows some serious work done in finding out answers and encourages me to do the same (if I get enough time).
I really like the article and encourage everyone to check it out.
I really like the article and encourage everyone to check it out.
Saturday, February 16, 2013
Things I noticed from my China trip
I just got back from China this past Monday. I haven't been there for almost 7 years, so it's really a good opportunity for me to be on the ground to see for myself the issues that China and its citizens are dealing with. I've taken some positions on Chinese economy and government, so I wanted to talk to people there to see how they feel about different issues.
First of all, I will just talk a little bit about the small number of military related stuff I noticed while I was there. It seems to me that a good number of Chinese citizens think that a war with Japan might happen. Watching TV, it was interesting to see the number of political/military show talking about possible conflict with Japan. I also saw programs celebrating Chinese heroes from the Sino-Japanese war of 1937-1945. There is certainly plenty of anti-Japanese sentiment in China right now. There is a lot of pride within China over the achievements of PLA in the past year. Certainly, the commissioning of Liaoning and the first takeoff/landing of J-15 have received the most press. The recent test flight of Y-20 transport has also brought a lot of excitement. Also, I took a flight from Yantai to Beijing while I was in China, so used the Yantai/Laishan airport. Luckily, this also happened to be a civilian/military dual use airport. As my plane was taking off on the runway, I actually saw the JH-7A fighter bombers outside of their shelters, so I took a couple of pictures. I'm pretty sure they were the reason my flight got delayed.
Secondly, let's talk about some of the good things that I saw while I was back there. Xi Jinping's call for curb to extravgance is really working. While I was in Beijing, everyone was telling me about the reduction in these excessive banquets, gift giving and extravagance. A lot of local officials are going overboard in frugality in public in order to impress higher ups. Even in state companies, banks and universities, end of the year banquets are not being held with the fund being reallocated to those who really need the money. The official call for less waste seems to even affect the day-to-day lives. It's definitely good to see this kind of change after years of over abundance under previous administration. The other thing I noticed was how much richer everyone has become since my last visit. While I was in Beijing, it seemed like anyone that has good education and registered in Beijing are very well compensated even by first world standard. The living standard has definitely gone up a lot in the recent years. Even in some of the secondary and tertiary cities, you can find most of the products that you can find in the West. There is definitely a large and growing middle class who are enjoying their new found wealth. I don't know if this is a good indication, but there was a proliferation of Apple product everywhere I went. That's a welcoming news in light of China's desire to shift from an investment based to a consumption based economy. Along with this, it's quite apparent that the amount of available cheap labour has decreased a lot in the bigger cities. In previous times I visited, there were a lot of excessive labour doing jobs which really were not needed. For example, there were more typically more employees in restaurants than people eating there. There were also a person paid to press elevator buttons in pretty much every residential building. Due to the rising living cost and reduced number of cheap labours, businesses have become a lot more efficient. Finding employment is still a big issue for most municipal government, so I think the entire talk of drying up of Chinese labour pool is started by people who have never been inside the country.
A couple of other things I want to address are issues that I saw before I visited. I think the housing market is not as inflated as people think. I have often read about how real estate is overly inflated based on the cost of housing to average salary. I think that overlooks the fact that the actual salary is a lot higher than the officially reported numbers. What I noticed this time back is that secondary income (gifts + bribery) for a lot of well off people are many times their regular income. On top of that, people who have retired from state companies often get the same salary as if they have never retired. When it comes to purchasing real estate, this extra secondary income in addition to support from retired parents allow most couples of purchase places that their regular income would never be able to support. There are also rich people that buy many apartments in big cities because they like to own excessive number of properties to show off their wealth. So while real estate is inflated from market speculation and excessive liquidity, the situation is not as bad as the raw numbers would indicate. The other issue is the so called hidden debts in China. The idea that many Chinese banks carry debt from bad investment/non-performing loans and would need to eventually be bailed out by the government. What I noticed was that the lending practice in China is no where near as bad as what I read about in Western news. Also while there are probably 2 or 3 banks that Chinese government implicitly guarantee, it will allow other banks go under for their bad decisions. Either way, the Chinese banks (like their American counterparts) are making a lot of money at the current time.
Having said all of the above, there are also a lot of things that were worse than what I thought. I think that the entire registration system in China creates two class of citizens. In Beijing, those who are born there generally have good jobs, own properties and live comfortably. They also have access to public education system and health care. These privileges are not extended to migrant workers who do most of the hard labour jobs, because the Beijing government can't afford it. In order to address employment issues, certain jobs (like driving taxi) are only available to residents of Beijing, so migrant workers are left with jobs that Beijing folks don't want to do. While I was there, business all shutdown because all the migrant workers went home for Chinese New Years. There are also 4 major issues that I think are problematic to China:
These are the things that really stood out to me from my visit. I know that some of my readers won't like what I say, but I can only report on what I saw and heard from people I talked to.
First of all, I will just talk a little bit about the small number of military related stuff I noticed while I was there. It seems to me that a good number of Chinese citizens think that a war with Japan might happen. Watching TV, it was interesting to see the number of political/military show talking about possible conflict with Japan. I also saw programs celebrating Chinese heroes from the Sino-Japanese war of 1937-1945. There is certainly plenty of anti-Japanese sentiment in China right now. There is a lot of pride within China over the achievements of PLA in the past year. Certainly, the commissioning of Liaoning and the first takeoff/landing of J-15 have received the most press. The recent test flight of Y-20 transport has also brought a lot of excitement. Also, I took a flight from Yantai to Beijing while I was in China, so used the Yantai/Laishan airport. Luckily, this also happened to be a civilian/military dual use airport. As my plane was taking off on the runway, I actually saw the JH-7A fighter bombers outside of their shelters, so I took a couple of pictures. I'm pretty sure they were the reason my flight got delayed.
Secondly, let's talk about some of the good things that I saw while I was back there. Xi Jinping's call for curb to extravgance is really working. While I was in Beijing, everyone was telling me about the reduction in these excessive banquets, gift giving and extravagance. A lot of local officials are going overboard in frugality in public in order to impress higher ups. Even in state companies, banks and universities, end of the year banquets are not being held with the fund being reallocated to those who really need the money. The official call for less waste seems to even affect the day-to-day lives. It's definitely good to see this kind of change after years of over abundance under previous administration. The other thing I noticed was how much richer everyone has become since my last visit. While I was in Beijing, it seemed like anyone that has good education and registered in Beijing are very well compensated even by first world standard. The living standard has definitely gone up a lot in the recent years. Even in some of the secondary and tertiary cities, you can find most of the products that you can find in the West. There is definitely a large and growing middle class who are enjoying their new found wealth. I don't know if this is a good indication, but there was a proliferation of Apple product everywhere I went. That's a welcoming news in light of China's desire to shift from an investment based to a consumption based economy. Along with this, it's quite apparent that the amount of available cheap labour has decreased a lot in the bigger cities. In previous times I visited, there were a lot of excessive labour doing jobs which really were not needed. For example, there were more typically more employees in restaurants than people eating there. There were also a person paid to press elevator buttons in pretty much every residential building. Due to the rising living cost and reduced number of cheap labours, businesses have become a lot more efficient. Finding employment is still a big issue for most municipal government, so I think the entire talk of drying up of Chinese labour pool is started by people who have never been inside the country.
A couple of other things I want to address are issues that I saw before I visited. I think the housing market is not as inflated as people think. I have often read about how real estate is overly inflated based on the cost of housing to average salary. I think that overlooks the fact that the actual salary is a lot higher than the officially reported numbers. What I noticed this time back is that secondary income (gifts + bribery) for a lot of well off people are many times their regular income. On top of that, people who have retired from state companies often get the same salary as if they have never retired. When it comes to purchasing real estate, this extra secondary income in addition to support from retired parents allow most couples of purchase places that their regular income would never be able to support. There are also rich people that buy many apartments in big cities because they like to own excessive number of properties to show off their wealth. So while real estate is inflated from market speculation and excessive liquidity, the situation is not as bad as the raw numbers would indicate. The other issue is the so called hidden debts in China. The idea that many Chinese banks carry debt from bad investment/non-performing loans and would need to eventually be bailed out by the government. What I noticed was that the lending practice in China is no where near as bad as what I read about in Western news. Also while there are probably 2 or 3 banks that Chinese government implicitly guarantee, it will allow other banks go under for their bad decisions. Either way, the Chinese banks (like their American counterparts) are making a lot of money at the current time.
Having said all of the above, there are also a lot of things that were worse than what I thought. I think that the entire registration system in China creates two class of citizens. In Beijing, those who are born there generally have good jobs, own properties and live comfortably. They also have access to public education system and health care. These privileges are not extended to migrant workers who do most of the hard labour jobs, because the Beijing government can't afford it. In order to address employment issues, certain jobs (like driving taxi) are only available to residents of Beijing, so migrant workers are left with jobs that Beijing folks don't want to do. While I was there, business all shutdown because all the migrant workers went home for Chinese New Years. There are also 4 major issues that I think are problematic to China:
- Pollution - This has to be the biggest problem. Most of northern China was under smog conditions for much of January. I wore a doctor's mask anytime I was outside and at least half of the people I saw were doing the same. During the first week I was there, it was uncomfortable to breathe when I was outside. Thankfully, wind from Mongolia blew away the smog for the second week, so things got better. I can see efforts by local government toward improving the environment, but it's hard to do so with increasing number of urban residents and cars. Most of the major cities in China are heavily polluted now. While my hometown improved since my last visit, Beijing was much worse this time around. People can't even do outdoor sports due to the bad air quality. There is no question this is a huge strain in the public health care system. China will also find it harder to attract foreign talents until they can clean this up a little bit.
- Corruption - This is almost as big of a problem as pollution. I think everyone knows that corruption embeds in the entire Chinese political system. In Beijing, anyone associated to government probably get more under the table than their official income. What I found shocking was how wide spread this corruption level is in other facets of the society. Pretty much anyone that has any kind of leverage will get gifts, red envelopes and other form of bribery under the tables. For examples, doctors get gifts (sometimes demand that) from patients, kickbacks from drug companies and equipment manufacturers. Any kind of procurement result in a lot of gifts for middlemen and those giving out the contract. Schools get bribes for allowing students with lower grades into their school. I was told that even people who don't want to take bribes end up doing so because they would otherwise be hard pressed to live a regular less style on their regular salary. It has become a regular part of life. Many people who gain from this system send their children abroad because they are concerned about being implicated in one of the anti-corruption campaigns. As one of my relatives said, "Unlike America, China is not a law based society. All the rich people send their family abroad because they are worried this system will turn against them. They want to have the option to leave the country if things turn against them or if China goes back to its former communist system. If I can send my family abroad, I would do so too." One of the major reasons that China has such stringent capital flow laws is because it's worried that money from all of the corrupted officials and rich people will flow out of the country. Chinese public has no trust toward their government but do have very high regard for the American systems. One of the people I talked to was surprised that I also have no clue how my local government is spending my tax dollars. Even with all of the reported corruption in the American political system, it's still child's play compared to the complete black box of the Chinese system.
- Piracy/Counterfeiting - While many people associate Chinese piracy/counterfeiting to Chinese copies of Western products or fake parts found in American military hardware, this problem is so much wider spread in China. I think many people have heard about the milk scandal in China from a few years ago, these problem of food/drink counterfeiting is everywhere. Brand name liquor like Maotai, Wuliangye and cigarette like Zhonghua are widely counterfeited due to their limit production and the rising income levels. In fact, it's very hard to find legitimate versions of these products. I was told that you can't find real Maotai in any of the restaurants in my hometown. Food counterfeiting has become so professional that even the lamb that people eat in hot pot are often pork soaked with lamb oil. The Chinese public have very low trust toward consumer products. When people buy brand name products, their biggest worry is not cost but fake products. This probably explains why brand name stores can charge outrageous prices for their products. One of the interesting part of this is Internet. While I was there, YouTube, Facebook and twitter were all blocked (Google services were inconsistent). According to the locals, there is a Chinese equivalent of every Internet service that I can find in the West. In the case of Weibo, it's probably even more popular than Twitter is here. While censorship is the official reason for the blocking of these Western websites, my feeling is that protecting local Internet industry is an equally strong reason. When counterfeiting is this far entrenched inside the country, it's not surprising that Western companies find their stuff getting copied in China.
- Inflation - First of all, China isn't experiencing hyperinflation like Iran currently or Zimbabwe from a few years ago, but prices have gone up a lot. Similar to their American counterparts, the Chinese government has been printing money like mad in the recent years and that has triggered increased income levels and massive inflation. While outsiders generally think RMB is undervalued, most Chinese people think RMB is overvalued. While the skyrocketing real estate prices have been widely reported, grocery, restaurant and consumer goods prices have also gone up a lot. Prices for good restaurants in Beijing has not yet reached New York level, but would be comparable to most other cities in America. While I was in a famous mall in Beijing, I checked out some stores (including Coach, Swarovski and Espirit) just to compare them to American prices. They were generally anywhere from 2 to 5 times to how much these things cost in America. It's not surprising that when Chinese tourists come to America, they spend mass amount of money buying brand name products here. Looking at this, it makes me wonder how the poor people in China and the migrant workers can afford to live in this kind of environment. The only things that are still relatively cheap are transportation (which is subsidized by the government) and rental cost (due in part to lack of legal protection for renters).
These are the things that really stood out to me from my visit. I know that some of my readers won't like what I say, but I can only report on what I saw and heard from people I talked to.
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