Friday, December 28, 2012

2012 in Review

2012 was an interesting year to look back on for PLAN and PLAAF. We saw the commissioning of No. 16 Liaoning carrier, the launching of the new 052D class destroyers, the first flight of J-31 fighter jet and what appears to be taxi-run and impending first flight of Y-20 strategic transport. Here are what I think are the 10 biggest story of 2012.

1. The Aircraft Carrier project:
Many of the PLAN followers have waited for the commissioning and the first flight off Liaoning for over 7 years. Since 2005 when ex-Varyag was first moved into Dalian shipyard dry docks for extensive work and painting of PLAN colours, internet forums have been buzzing with questions about when/if this ship will ever join service. The negotiation for 50 Su-33 and the application of the non-skid layer in 2006 further moved us to think that this ship will join service. However, what appeared to be extensive period of inaction in 2007 and 2008 made us question some of those thoughts. When it was moved to dry docks again in 2009, it appeared just a matter of time before this ship will enter service. Much of the outfitting of sensors and self-defense weapons were installed in 2010 to 2011. We even saw a replica of Liaoning in Wuhan. The sea trials for Liaoning started in August of 2011 and it officially joined service on September 24th of this year after 10 sea trials. We did not find out until later, but numerous touch-n-go had already been completed on this ship by that point. The monumental first take-off and landing with J-15 naval aircraft off Liaoning was completed by Nov 20th. More of the photographed take-off and landings of multiple J-15s were accomplished on Nov 23rd. All in all, this marked the completion of the first stage of the carrier project. Now, China begins the long process of developing a fully operational carrier group with its own naval aviation doctrines.

2. Emergence of type 052D class DDG:
While the wait for this was not nearly as long, many PLAN followers have been waiting since at least 2008 for an improved surface combatant to the 052C class. The relocation of JiangNan shipyard and indigenization of DA80/DN80 gas turbine (QC-280) delayed the production of follow-on units for several years. By late 2010, the 3rd unit of the 052C class was launched at the new JN shipyard. Many PLAN followers were disappointed over the fact that the new 052C had no visible external changes compared to the first two 052C. Over the next year or so, 3 more 052Cs were launched in JN shipyard. They are all in various stages of sea trials and fitting out at the moment. By August of this year, we had the long awaited launching of the much anticipated 052D class. As discussed in previous blog entries, 052D class is fitted with an entirely new generation of air defence and combat system. In addition, we saw the introduction of the Chinese version of MK-41 VLS that can launch different types of missiles and fit multiple missiles per launch cell. When we compared the overhead shot of 052D vs 052C, it appears that the size of the ships did not change much, but the new VLS and other weaponry have allowed more capabilities to be packed in the same hull. It appears that at least 4 052D are planned at the moment. Whether or not we will see more of this class depends on the development of PLAN's next generation of large surface combatants. 052D class is not only important in its much improved combat power versus the 052C class, but it's also very important in testing out this new generation of sensors and weapon systems that will likely be used by future surface combatants of different sizes. One thing to look forward to is the different missiles that will be developed and fitted into the new VLS. Another thing to look forward to is whether this will just be an interim class of 4 ships before a new series of surface combatant comes along or will this be part of a much larger part of PLAN's future.

3. Appearance of Y-20 transport:
This is still a very recent story, so its importance has not really been explored much. One only has to look at all the delayed PLAAF programs to see how important this project is. The strategic lift has been so lacking that China have recently been forced to purchase refurbished second hand IL-76s from Russia. At this point, the IL-76 imported in the early 90s may not have much service life left. At the same time, PLAAF currently only operated 4 KJ-2000 AEWC&C, because PLAAF does not have enough remaining IL-76 units. Other projects that would need something like Y-20 include aerial refueling tanker, ABL, next generation AEWC&C and various other special missions project. The successful induction and mass production of this aircraft would provide a huge leap in PLAAF's force projection capabilities. I put this ahead of J-31, because Y-20 would contribute more to PLAAF's desires to transform from an air denial force to air dominance more than any other project. From this point on, it will be interesting to see how fast Y-20 can join services. As shown with other projects like A400M and C-2, a lot of delays can happen in the development of large military transport.

4. Appearance and first flight of J-31 fighter jet:
The appearance of China's second 5th generation project caused a lot of uproar back in September. It had been speculated for a long time that SAC might have a competing project to CAC's J-20. As mentioned in previous blog entries, it's still not clear exactly what will happen to this aircraft. It looks to be offered in the export market. It is probably going to be inducted into PLAAF as a compliment to the larger and more expensive J-20. There might be a naval version that gets developed to replace J-15 as PLAN's second generation of naval aircraft. With its experience from developing J-15, a naval version of J-31 should be well within SAC's capability. As we move forward, it will be interesting to see the installation of a domestic engine option that J-31 was designed for. Clearly, the gap between RD-93 and the exhaust indicates that RD-93 isn't the permanent solution to J-31. There will be sometimes before J-31 is ready.

5. Introduction of Z-10 and Z-19 to the world:
The development for Z-10 started in 1998 and was known to the world by the early 2000s, but was kept almost completely confidential for the past 10 years. It first flew in 2003, but was delayed when the PT6C-76C engines embargo was imposed by the Canadian government. The project was delayed until 2009 when a lighter version was developed using the less powerful WZ-9 engine. Z-19 development started probably late last decade and first flew in 2010. It was not kept to the same level of secrecy as Z-10. In this past year's Zhuhai air show, both Z-10 and Z-19 were unveiled to the world. We saw much TV coverage in addition to flight displays from Z-10 and Z-19 units. The most interesting find of this past year was that Z-10 and Z-19 are far wider deployed than we previously estimated, since both only officially achieved operational clearance in the past 2 years. With pictures of different serial numbers, we are able to identify the existence of Z-10 in 5 different PLA LH brigades and Z-19 in 4 different PLA LH brigades. At the present time, each brigade that has Z-10 and/or Z-19 have 12 of each helicopter. Moving forward, it's likely that Z-10 and Z-19 will be deployed to all of the army aviation brigades in the next couple of years. That would represent quite a jump in the capabilities of PLA LH, which had been relying mostly upon Z-9s and Mi-17s up to this point.

6. The continued high tide of PLAN:
2011 was the start of a new wave of shipbuilding for PLAN. This trend only accelerated into this year. Most of the major Chinese naval shipyards have been very busy with naval and civilian maritime ministry orders in the past year. Part of this could be the downturn in the world's shipbuilding market, but an even larger part is that the time has come for this second wave of PLAN modernization (the first being from 2003 to 2006). JiangNan shipyard has been leading the way with 8 052C/D ships in various stages of completion before commissioning along with construction of 039B submarines and Minesweepers. HuDong shipyard has continued its work with at least 3 054A frigates along with Type 903 AOR and multiple 056 patrol ships. Huangpu shipyard is finishing up on its 054A orders, but is building numerous 056 patrol ships, small specialty naval ships and cutters for different maritime agencies. One of the prominent sightings at HP shipyard is the number of rescue ships and CMS ships that are in various stages of completion. Wuchang shipyard also has its shares of cutters along with 039B submarines and 056 patrol ships. Even the smaller shipyards around the country have been getting many orders for auxiliary ships, smaller combat ships and rescue ship/cutters for civilian ministry. The only one that seems to not be getting much work right now is Dalian shipyard. Going forward, this heavy construction activity should continue into next year with JN, HD and HP shipyard continue being the largest naval shipyards in the country.

7. The 056 program:
This interim class between 022 FACs and 054A FFGs has been speculated since 2007. As we saw large number of cutters entering service with the civilian maritime agencies, the demand for this interim class for patroling nearby waters by the navy seem to no longer be there. But by late 2010, it was quite clear that PLAN intends to build this new class of ships. It is expected to replace the roles of 037s and Jianghu class FFGs to conduct naval patrol in South China Sea and provide littoral defense. I think what surprised me was the huge ramp up in the production of 056s. Back in 2010, I was expecting something similar to 054A with production of a couple of early unit, some testing period and then large scale production. The 056 program seems to follow an even more aggressive production schedule than 022 FACs. We are seeing four shipyards (HuDong, HuangPu, WuChang and LiaoNan) producing 056s simultaneously before the first 056 was ever launched. In fact, the first 056 launched from both HP and HD shipyard had their funnels and the bow section reworked after they were already launched. Even with HP shipyard slowing down a little bit recently, there have been at least 7 056s launched in the past 8 months. One 056 from both HP and HD shipyards have already gone out for sea trials. Going forward, it looks like 056 could easily see a production run of over 30 units. It would represent a huge leap over the performance of 037s and Jianghu ships that it will be replacing. As higher priority projects fall in the hands of HD and HP shipyard, we may see some smaller shipyards (in addition to LiaoNan) get orders for 056.

8. Success of Shenyang AC:
It has been a really good year for Shenyang AC. For the past few years, SAC was loosing out to its little brother CAC, who have been successful with J-10 and J-20 project along with export successes with JF-17 and F-7. The J-11B program was delayed for long periods by production failures of FWS-10. Since 2011, FWS-10 has been put on the right track and J-11B/S can now be considered to be successful. On top of that, the successful take-off and landing of J-15 fighter jet along with the first flight of the two-seated version J-15S show that Shenyang has successfully navalized J-11B/S. The unveiling and first flights of J-31,J-16 (China's Su-30 equivalent) and J-15S this year are all great success stories for SAC. SAC is also reported very active with UAV and UCAV projects, so there is a lot to look forward to out of SAC next year.

9. The expansion of civilian maritime agency: Back in 2010, China announced that it will build 30 marine law enforcement vessels over 5 years. I think this is just the plans for Chinese Maritime Surveillance rather than all 5 of the civilian agencies. We can see this massive expansion just by seeing all of the new cutters that are produced at HuangPu and WuChang shipyard. What we often don't see is the smaller shipyards that are also building smaller cutters (of 600 ton class) for CMS. The smaller shipyards have also been busy building smaller cutters (300 to 600 ton class) for FLEC and Maritime Police. On top of the new ships, numerous naval ships that were decommissioned recently have been sent to shipyards to get refurbished for use by CMS and FLEC. Some of the new cutters are used to patrol the disputed waters with Japan and ASEAN. Other cutters are been delivered to coastal provinces to provide security. So, it's wrong to just think this ramp up is purely targeting Japan and Vietnam. Other than the maritime police, the cutters for other agencies are completely unarmed. So while they can look menacing, they are not military ships.

10. Increased transparency:
While PLA is still less transparent than what Western countries would like to see, it has made a lot of effort in increasing transparency. Online military blogs such as this one are more in touch with PLA programs than ever before. Part of that is due to the amount of photos we get on programs that were previously seen as classified. We see pictures of new aircraft projects well before the first flight. Outside of nuclear submarines, I really can't think of any PLAAF or PLAN project that is hidden anymore. At the same time, the Chinese government is putting more effort out there to explain its defence programs like the carrier project and most recently with the Y-20 project. None of this is done accidentally. PLA has increased confidence over the weapon systems that are being developed and deployed. And it also wants to show that to address concerns from other countries.

There are also stories that haven't been mentioned much, but are very important in my opinion. Below are the top 5 under rated stories of 2012:

1. Production of more 052C and 054A ships:
With all of the new ships coming into service, the continued production of 052C and 054A get overlooked a little bit. The production of 054A is going beyond 16, because PLAN has been so pleased with the cost and capability of this ship. 054A is already the work horse of PLAN in major exercises, missions to Gulf of Aden, and other blue water deployment. By the end of its production run, 054A would effectively have replaced all of the old Jianghu ships while pushing the Jiangwei ships to secondary duties. At the same time, the induction of 052C into East Sea Fleet will make the fleet fully modernized by 2014 (all of the old Ludas, Jianghus and Ming class submarines would be replaced). PLAN is no longer in a phase of discovering new capabilities, but mass deploying these new capabilities.

2. Continued expansion of MCM ships:
Another area where PLAN is continuing to modernize is in mine warfare. Unknown to a lot of observers, 3 new Type 081 minesweepers were launched this year bringing the total to 8. Along with the 2 more advanced Type 082II MCM ships, PLAN's MCM operation is continuing to see quantum leap over the old Soviet era T-43 class minesweepers.

3. Ever increasing complexity of PLAAF exercises:
Along with the impreovement in hardware, it seems like the software part of PLA is also improving. The PLAAF version of red flag exercise at Dingxin is getting more and more complex every year. PLAAF has also introduced it's own Top Gun system with awarding of "Golden helmet" to pilots who perform well in the different combat scenarios.

4. The appearance of Y-8 High New 6 maritime patrol aircraft
ASW has long been PLAN's greatest weakness. A large part of that is the lack of a dedicated maritime patrol aircraft designed for ASW missions like P-3C. Although it has to join service with PLANAF, Y-8 High New 6 should eventually fill that role. Knowing that Shaanxi AC can only produce so many platforms every year, PLANAF will really have to battle out with PLAAF for Category III platforms to be installed for this mission.

5. Increase exports of naval and civilian patrol ships
In this past year, an increased sighting amongst Chinese shipyard are military or patrol ships built for export. Most recently, we have seen patrol ships built for Bangladesh, Namibia and Pakistan and refurbished Jianghu ships for Burma and Bangladesh. On top of that, Pakistan has just signed a contract for 4 more F-22P. Since China doesn't report on its naval exports, we really don't know about those deals until we see them taking shape in one of the numerous naval shipyards around the country.

So, that concludes an extremely eventful year for PLAN and PLAAF. There is certainly a lot to look forward to in 2013. It has also been a big year for me personally and I hope we all have a good end of the year.

Saturday, December 8, 2012

J-15 vs Su-33 vs Mig-29K

This past week, there was an article on People's daily called China's J-15 fighter superior to Russian Su-33

I had a couple of thoughts reading through it. My first thought was that finally China is actually defending itself against some of these Western and Russian accusations. It drove me crazy back in the days to see Russian media quoting different people blasting China for copying its weaponry and for making excuses for not fulfilling contracts like the one for IL-76/78. Through all of that, there was nobody from AVIC1 or PLA that spoke against some of those claims. The only times I heard official denials were regarding claims of China selling J-10s to Iran and purchasing Su-35s from Russia. Those were clearly crazy rumours that spread because China did not step in earlier to deny these things. Going forward, I hope CMC/PLA puts a stronger PR effort out there to defend itself against some of the Russian claims.

My second thought was that while it was good to see China defending against Russian claims that a copy can never be better than the original, it should be obvious to everyone that J-15 is a superior fighter jet to the original Su-33. However, it's really not saying much, because J-15 is being compared against something that was developed in the late 80s. If after 20+ years, J-15 is not better than Su-33, then SAC should stop developing and producing aircraft. Compared to the original Su-33, J-15 include:
  • Having multi-role capability and can fire wide range of AAM, AShM, ARM and ground attack weapons
  • Having a more powerful and multi-role fire control system (probably using an AESA radar)
  • Having more powerful IRST/FLIR system, EW suite, RWR and MAWs
  • Having more modern avionics with modern data bus, mission computers, holographic HUDs, modern MMI and fiber optic wiring.
  • Using more composite material and lighter electronics to give better T/W ratio

Now, if the Russians had invested in modernizing Su-33, it could do all of the above. Although, we could argue whether it has the same wide range of ground attack weapons as China or if the sensors/avionics is as advanced or more advanced. It has chosen not to, because it has picked Mig-29K has the future naval fighter.

There are many reasons why it made more sense for the Russians to go with a modern Mig-29K instead of Su-33. My opinion is that India had already paid for the development of a modern Mig-29K as part of its effort to develop a 3 carrier fleet. At the same time, China had rejected Russia's 3 step proposal of first taking the original Su-33s, then upgrading to a multi-role version with Su-30MK2 sensor/weapon suite and eventually upgrading to a final version with PESA radar. As a result, it made more sense for Russia to go with the already developed naval aircraft with production lines rather than re-opening the production lines and pay for the development cost of a modern Su-33. At the same time, Mikoyan needed these orders a lot more than Sukhoi (which has a long backlog of domestic and export orders).

Looking back, I think that China obviously made the right decision to develop J-15 on its own with some help from the purchase of T-10K-3. The experience from developing naval version of J-11B will help SAC develop next generation of naval aircraft like a naval version of J-31. At the same time, there was no reason for China to pay the Russians to develop modern version of Su-33 if it could develop a modern version of J-15 by itself. It's similar to my last post about China's choice of purchasing MKK rather than getting involved in a long running project like MKI. Imports from Russia are always considered interim solutions. If domestic options can be developed in time, there really is no reason to get involved in a foreign project and pay for the development cost.

Looking ahead, I think China is also better off with a J-15 class fighter than a Mig-29K class fighter. There was a competition between SAC and CAC over the first generation of a naval fighter jet. Flanker variant won over the J-10 variant because it was considered to have better multi-role capabilities. The current version of J-15 is already a multi-role aircraft. In the future, we could see different versions of J-15 like a single-seat buddy-to-buddy refueling, a two-seat EW version like Growler or a two-seated mini AEWC&C version. These are not things you can do with a lighter naval aircraft.

Sunday, December 2, 2012

How things have changed

Recently, we’ve been hearing from Russians about a proposed sale of 24 Su-35s to China. As with every other time, a lively debate re-ignited on Sinodefenceforum on whether or not this will/should happen. I got to be so annoyed with the endless debate on this topic that I stopped the thread until confirmation of actual sale happening.

Thinking back to the early days of joining sinodefenceforum (around 2005), it’s really interesting how much things have changed and how much my perspectives have changed over the times. Back then, J-10 had just joined services and Su-30MKK was considered the most powerful fighter jet in PLAAF. There was much discussion started by Indian posters online regarding the superiority of MKI over MKK. I bugged me a lot back then that Russians are restricting their export of advanced technologies to China. A big deal was made out of the advanced Israeli avionics, TVC nozzle and BARS radar on MKI that were not offered for MKK. Even Su-30MKK3s that were offered to China at that time were using Zhuk-MSE radar instead of phased array radar like Bars. Indians were convinced that their friendship with Russia and European embargo ensures that Russia would never be offering their best stuff to China. I still remember thinking to myself and wondering why the only phased array radar offered to China was the Pero antenna on top of N-0001VE radar. I remember being extremely excited when hearing that China was testing out Irbis radar. Finally, I thought China was getting something better than what India received. I was somewhat confused that China never opted for it. That was just one the many cases where it seemed like the Russians were denying their best stuff to Chinese requests. Others included a leasing of Akula nuclear submarine, outfitting of Admiral Gorshkov carrier and even Amur submarine.

It’s funny looking at how my perception of these situations have changed over the past 7 to 8 years as I have seen how things played out and found out more about what went on behind the scenes. Even as recent as 2008, I thought it made sense for China to get a couple of regiments of Su-35s as an interim option until the next generation of fighter jet comes into service. I was also in favour of import of Su-33s for a long time just in case that J-15 program hits some kind of snag. Probably the program that caused the biggest delays to PLAAF was the import of IL-76/78. When the original order of 38 of these aircraft were nullified due to the inability of Tashkent plant, we heard that Kazakhstan actually were offering to sell almost everything needed for IL-76 (with the exception of engine probably) to China, since the Russians were planning to move production back to Russia. For whatever reason, either Chinese hesitancy (due to domestic interests) scuttled the deal. These days, China is purchasing revamped/upgraded IL-76s that were in Russian storage as the interim option. Other than this, it seems like China knew exactly what was going on all along. It took what’s immediately available from the Russians and did not buy into any of the plans and development programs that they were offering.

In most of the naval program, it has become apparent in the recent years that Russian shipyards are in a bad condition, whereas Chinese shipyards are capable of cranking out modern war ships. I remember when the Ukrayina (an unfinished Slava class cruiser) was offered to China and it seemed to make a lot of sense at the time for China to purchase it, since they already have 051C using the same air defense system. Now, having looked at the development of 052C/052D while also seeing the problems that Sov have experienced with PLAN, it has certainly become inconceivable for China to go for this option. At the same time, China’s success in the Liaoning project along with the Russian struggles in INS Vikramaditya has shown that they made the right choice to go alone. The troubles experienced in the development of Amur submarine have forced Russia into procuring kilo submarines again. While at the same time, China has been mass producing 039B while building a mysterious new diesel submarine that is supposedly replacing the old Gulf class test sub. China has taken pretty much all it needed from Russia in its current generation of surface combatants and moved on to a newer generation of ships. It would make more sense now for the Russians to purchase ships from China rather than vice versa.

In aerospace world, much of the myths from back in 2005 have also been rejected. All along, it seemed like China looked at Su-30MKK as an interim solution in developing an offensive platform with mature technology while indigenously developing domestic options like J-11B. While the Chinese flanker program has suffered setbacks such as the delays in FWS-10 project, SAC has now turned it into a success with the recent progress in J-15, J-15S and J-16. As time goes on, it makes less and less sense for China to purchase Su-35 or other Russian options. It seems to me that China realized very early on to not fall for Russian sale pitches and only go for systems that are already mature. In the long term, it relied on its own defense industry for developing new weapon systems rather than Indian method of relying on co-production of imported technology. Even though we do not hear about it, PLAAF always had a plan of how it was good to develop a strong domestic military aviation industry. Its goal in original dealings with Russians was to use foreign technology to develop domestic industry rather than just getting finished products. China’s fourth generation aircraft programs no longer need any Russian assistance. In areas such as UAV and ground attack weaponry, China has already surpassed Russia. In the race to next generation fighter jet, China is at least on par with Russia in the development process. The only major areas it remains to be behind Russia are engine production, transport helicopters and military transport. And as we can see, those are pretty much the only items that China still purchases from the Russians.

Since 2005, China has experienced generational improvements in different defense areas. It is hard to see same level of improvement in the next 7 years. I have learnt to not speculate too much about the future, because I end up looking quite foolish in the process.