As many of you have heard by now, there was an eleventh hour deal between US and the major emerging economies like China, India, Brazil and South Africa when I was looking bleak. Before going through the merits of this deal, I will first explain why this issue is so important to me. I grew up in possibly the most polluted place in the world. CNN ran a story about Linfen, http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/12/15/china.pollution/index.html, which is right next to my hometown. I know there are a lot of questions, especially from the Republicans in America, regarding whether or not global warming is really valid. I think that if ever lived in my hometown, you would think that global warming is a reality. In the span of the 26 years of my life time, the average high temperature of a summer time has gone from mid 20s to mid 30s. The kind of environment degradation in my hometown is truly extraordinary. The water level dropped so much that what used to be a shallow river no longer exists. They had to fill that area with tap water to give the illusion that it's still a river. When it's really hot and dry in summer time, you can see dry land with huge cracks. Even the famous yellow river is completely dried up in the summer time around where I came from. The air quality is so bad that I catch some form of respiratory sickness every time I go back there and can never get well until leaving the country. I can go on talking about how the sinful nature of men have destroyed this amazing world that we live in, but I would be spending the next 4 pages talking about all the bad things i have seen in China alone. I think that the change in climate is partly due to the natural climate change, but mostly due to the damage done by us. If the temperature continues to go up the way it does, there will be increased drought problems around the world. Water will become more and more scarce for certain countries. In other countries, they'd have the opposite effect of too much precipitation leading to hurricanes and tsunamis. And with polar ice caps melting, the international water level would rise to the point where millions of people will be displaced. The sad part is that the developing countries that contribute the least to carbon emissions and can afford the least to help out on emissions cut will end up suffering the most from climate change. There have already been talks about many Pacific islands getting swallowed up by the Ocean in the next 50 years. I'm more concerned about areas like Bangladesh where over 100 billion people could be displaced due to elevation in water level. And what about New York? Manhattan would be swallowed up if water level is elevated as much as the projection.
But what if all of the scientific theories are wrong and all the global warming in the past 20 years are occurring naturally? Even if that's case, the world would become a much less polluted and environmentally damaging place by using less fossil fuel, have more stringent emission standards and use more efficient plants. Who would really complain about breathing in air with less toxin? During the elections, everyone complained about how America is overly reliant on the Middle East for energy usage. At the same time, many of the major oil fields (like Ghawar Field in Saudi Arabia, Cantarell Field in Mexico and Daqing in China) around the world have all hit the so called peak oil and are not declining in production. There are still oil sands in Canada and deep water oil deposits off Florida and the Green River Formation oil shale around Colorado. However, you start running into the problem where the amount of energy used to extract is actually greater than the oil extracted. For example, the core of Earth has the highest grade of untapped iron deposits, but is anyone actually stupid enough to try to extract those iron ore? As a result of the oil/natural gas production decline and the increase need for them around the world, America will be fighting for that shrinking share of oil production with China and India. By necessity, the entire world would have to eventually switch to using renewable or re-usable source of energy.
Because of all the above, I was really nervous leading up to Copenhagen. I knew of the great divide between the developing countries and developed countries, so was really worried that nothing would get worked out. As it stands, the agreement was regarded by numerous European countries as not enough. I think that view is way too pessimistic. Even though China and India have not given a specific year when their emissions would peak, they have agreed to at least set some kind of firm target and have agreed to some form of international verification. When it comes to China, face is an extremely important part of the culture and the communist leaders don't like to look bad in front of others. Under international scrutiny, I really don't see China backing off on the commitments that it made this week to the world. I really think Obama did a great job in emphasizing the idea that this is the first step in concluding something that is truly worthwhile and effective over the long run. I believe that by the UN conference in Mexico City next year, this deal would have moved further along. It would take a while for the last minute concessions by China, India, Brazil and South Africa to really put in a legally binding agreement. I don't think China will stop at 40-45% energy intensity cut. Having seen their past efforts, they will most likely achieve a larger cut through their current efforts in nuclear/wind/solar power expansion and more stringent fuel efficiency/emissions standards. Of course, it's also important for Europeans to achieve their stated goal of 25% emission cut from 1990 levels. It is also important for US to actually offer something better than a 1.3% emission cut from 1990 levels. Compared to EU and Japan, US and Canada are really not doing that much to help the global efforts. Having lived in these 2 countries for the better parts of my life, I'm quite ashamed of that. In the midst of the great economic downturn in the past 70 years, it's really hard for any country to make sacrifices while others stand pat. I'm just glad that we have finally started the process of really trying to cooperate on this globally. Even if what we have now is not perfect, we can hope for greater international pressure to yield more firm targets and a legally binding agreement that could save our planet.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Thursday, December 3, 2009
The state of China/Russia military cooperation
Today, I read this article by a Russian paper regarding the military cooperation between China and Russia. I think it really does a great job of explaining why there haven't been a major deal recently and why it probably would not happen anytime soon. The important point is that this article didn't dwell on the so called pirating efforts of China against Russian hardware, so it was able to explore some of the major reasons why nothing is going on. It clearly identifies IL-76 and S-400 as the 2 major items that China would most likely want from Russia at the current time and why they are not coming through.
With respect to the last paragraph, I think the idea of pirating will be a problem for a while, because the two sides really can't agree on what constitute pirating. The copyright laws in the two countries are actually not the same. So even though they signed an agreement, I'm not sure it will work out as the Russians want.
With respect to the last paragraph, I think the idea of pirating will be a problem for a while, because the two sides really can't agree on what constitute pirating. The copyright laws in the two countries are actually not the same. So even though they signed an agreement, I'm not sure it will work out as the Russians want.
The crisis in the Russian defence industry is hindering the
development of military-technical cooperation with the Middle Kingdom.
Military cooperation between Russia and China in the weapons business
sphere, it appears, is experiencing a severe crisis. This is shown by
the results of the visit to Russia by the Chinese government
delegation headed by Colonel General Guo Boxiong, deputy chairman of
the PRC's Central Military Commission, that concluded last Friday [27
November].
General Guo Boxiong (on the left) rubbed shoulders with Dmitriy
Medvedev but apparently left Moscow empty handed.
The military leader from China came to discuss prospects for military-
technical cooperation (VTS) between the two countries. President
Vladimir Medvedev received Gou Boxiong. He noted that "a firm
partnership is developing between the two countries, and it is based
upon a coincidence of our basic interests." The day before, in the
presence of Defence Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov and Federal Service
for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSVTS) Director Mikhail Dmitriyev,
Russia's leader met for a long time behind closed doors in Barvikha
with the Chinese guests. On 24 November the delegation from China was
at the Kapustin Yar proving ground in Astrakhan Oblast where new
developments in prospective armament models were demonstrated for it.
And the next day [25 November] the 14th session of the Russian-Chinese
Joint Commission on Military-Technical Cooperation (SMK) was held in
Moscow under the chairmanship of Anatoliy Serdyukov. According to
Irina Kovalchuk, the defence minister's press secretary, at the
session "the sides expressed satisfaction with the state of bilateral
military-technical cooperation."
Nevertheless, it is striking that neither the Russian nor the Chinese
sides expected the present meeting to end in the signing of any sort
of documents about weapons purchases. Foreshadowing the SMK session,
Mikhail Dmitriyev stated that all areas of bilateral collaboration
"will be examined" at it: aircraft building, engines, ships, PVO [air
defence] systems, and armoured equipment. Although "the adoption of
any breakthrough decisions or the signing of any contracts is not
expected." Why it is "not expected" is completely understandable.
Beijing already has bought everything that is possible in Moscow, and
it will produce the greater share of weapons by itself. And all of the
new types of weapons that the PRC needs are only at the development
stage in Russia, or else there are problems in producing them.
For example, the last "breakthrough contract" between Moscow and
Beijing was concluded as far back as 2005 in Sochi. At issue were
deliveries to the PRC by 2010 of 34 Il-76 military-transport airplanes
and four Il-78 refueling airplanes, at a total cost of more than one
billion dollars. But, as is well known, the Chkalov Tashkent Aircraft
Production Association (TAPOiCH, Uzbekistan), where the airplanes
mentioned are produced, defaulted and the contract was broken. As
sources in the FSVTS reported to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the question of
buying heavy military transport airplanes also was raised during the
present round of Russian- Chinese contracts, but Moscow was not able
to make the Chinese comrades happy in any way.
We would note that during the time of Guo Boxiong's visit to the
Russian Federation President Medvedev visited Ulyanovsk. The media
paid attention to the dressing down that the president gave to the
military in that city in connection with the explosions at the Navy's
No 31 Arsenal. Meanwhile, having arrived in Ulyanovsk Dmitriy Medvedev
immediately left the airport and headed first of all to the Aviatstar
SP [joint venture] aircraft-building plant, to which the production of
the Il-76 will be transferred from Tashkent. Together with others of
the aviation enterprise's innovations, they also showed him the plans
for a new aircraft (Il-476) based on the Il-76 airplane, where the
newest aviation navigation and control systems are used and where in
addition to everything the configuration of the wing is changed.
On the same day in Ulyanovsk, in addition to a session of the State
Council for Nanoinnovation [Gossovet po nanonovatsiyam: According to
the Kremlin website, Medvedev participated in a session of the State
Committee for Questions of Innovative Development of Russia's
Transportation System in Ulyanovsk on 24 November], a session of the
board of directors of the Amalgamated Aircraft Manufacturing
Corporation (OAK) was held under the chairmanship of Deputy Premier
Sergey Ivanov to determine plans for Russian aviation. Notable among
these is a plan for "the programme for producing the Il-476 to be set
in motion at the Ulyanovsk aircraft plant: the airplane is expected to
be rolled out in 2010 and will be tested in 2011." Thus it was
demonstrated to the PRC that Russia is developing modern aviation
technology, but the Chinese still will not see the new military
transport airplane very soon. Judging from present Russian experience,
testing the airplane will take a long time.
Besides this, the Russian Air Force is in great need of these
airplanes. The same thing could be said about other new Russian
defence industry developments. Let us say that on 24 November at the
Russian Air Force's Kapustin Yar proving ground the Chinese admired
the S-400 surface-to-air missile (ZRS) system. But it was hinted to
them that they are unlikely to that soon either. In the first place,
the Russian armed forces will have to be equipped with it, and in the
second place - and perhaps this is the most essential point - the
shortcomings that the S-400 has must be eliminated. Air Force
Commander in Chief Colonel General Aleksandr Zelin unambiguously
hinted at this on 26 November. According to him, the tactical-
technical characteristics that are set for this surface-to-air missile
system "still have not been completely obtained". Therefore, the
general says, together with the PVO Almaz-Antey concern it is still
necessary to carry out a great deal of work in order for "the
necessary results to be achieved".
The Chinese were shown other new types of weapons, but Russia does not
want to sell them "simply for the sake of selling them". From all
accounts, Moscow wants to establish gentlemen's agreements with
Beijing in the area of military-technical cooperation in order to
avoid pirate copying of our technology. In this connection one can
recall the scandal fanned by the media about the fact that Moscow is
thinking about refusing to sell Beijing a major part of the SU-33
fighter out of fears that the Chinese will illegally copy this
airplane as they had done earlier with the Su-27. Vyacheslav Dzirkaln,
deputy director of Russia's Federal Service for Military- Technical
Cooperation, thinks that the problem is a real one: "Last year we
signed an agreement on the protection of intellectual property, and I
hope that it will help us solve problems in disputes connected with
the illegal copying of our weapons."
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Discussions through Google Wave
Hey guys, I'd be willing to have a discussion on PLA related topics through Google wave, so if anyone is interested, you can email me your Google wave account (my email is tphuang@gmail.com) or reply to this note and then I will try to answer any questions you may have. Please be respectful and not spam me.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
US/China relations + PLA transparency
I just have some random thoughts from the last couple of days with Obama's visit to Asia and all the news releases with PLAAF’s 60th anniversary. There have been a lot of new articles recently about the deterioration of the US-Japan relationships with the DPJ sweeping into power. One of the bigger issues we hear recently is the relocation of the Futenma air bases in Okinawa. And I’m sure that many others know the issue better than I do on this, but it seems like the Okinawans are calling for all US troops to leave the island. I know it’s a very unlikely scenario, but how would loosing an air base like Kadena affect USAF operations in the PacRIM (especially in Taiwan scenario)?
Of course, President Obama also visited China on this trip to discuss a series of issues. Climate change and currency valuation are probably the two biggest items on Obama’s agenda. I think for the former, China will continue to accept more responsibility, because it really is in its national interest to do so. We have basically seen the Chinese green energy industry explode in the last couple of years. Even though it has not made any firm promises on targets, it is actually making a lot of progress in every area. I think the Politburo will soon realize that they are already on pace to achieve targets that Western countries expect of them and actually accept some kind of commitment. Even so, I’m not sure if they will figure this out before the all important Copenhagen talks. In the area of currency valuation, I think Chinese leadership will totally miss the ball on this one. Even though it’s probably for their own good to let RMB appreciate, they will probably stubbornly tie their currency to USD longer than they should. With all of the public and private sector debts, it’s hard to imagine USD having anywhere to go but down. If China wants RMB to have some kind of role in a future world reserve currency, it would be much better if it can speed of the process of becoming a floating currency. On the flip side, if China let their currency rise, then it would not have to purchase as much treasury, which will force more purchase by the FED and accelerate the decline of USD. So while US wants China to let its currency rise, it also might not like the resulting affect. The right thing for China to do is probably let its currency rise. And the right thing for USA to do is to get its spending in order, cut down its debt and raise interest rate. However, neither side looks like they are willing to do the right thing.
On the security side, I think we all know by now what the biggest issues are on both side. I have always found the Chinese complaints over F-16 sale to be kind of funny. I am not entirely sure what the order backlog is like for F-16s, but I believe the following countries are still in the midst of receiving their F-16s: Turkey, Pakistan, Greece, Poland, Iraq and Morocco. Even if the F-16 deal gets approved and signed by next year, it will probably take until 2014 before the F-16s get all delivered. We recently heard that the next generation Chinese fighter will be ready in 8 to 10 years. I really don’t think this F-16 deal will help ROCAF as much as most people think it will. The concern I’ve always read from the Chinese military insiders is that they consider F-16 to be an offensive platform. If that’s the case, a deal can still be done without the latest multi-role weapons like JDAM and SLAM-ER.
The major US complaint over China is obviously the issue of transparency. In the past week, PLAAF made some announcements that were surprising to many people in both the transparency and the content. The deputy commander of PLAAF said that China's 4th generation fighter (5 generation for America) is expected to test flight shortly and also take about 8 to 10 years to enter service. In comparison, J-10 first flied in 1998, delivered to the PLAAF Flight Test & Training Base for evaluation in 2003, had first regiment regiment established in 2004, but still was not considered by Chinese media to have entered service until 2006 when they had already established 2 active regiments. F-22's production version first flew in 1997, commenced Initial Operational Test and Evaluation in 2003 and achieved FOC in 2007. If China's 4th generation fighter has a similar time line to J-10 and F-22, it would take about 8 years to go from first flight to service entrance. The first flight would have to happen in the next 2 years to achieve that 8 to 10 years promise. The interesting part is that Kanwa, which is well known for its flawed coverage on PLA, claimed that the 4th generation program had no chance of making its first flight in the near future. The funny part was that an expert from Chinese Air Force Command College replied by saying that PLA would never make an open announcement without believing that it will happen. I personally agree with latter, because it really is very unusual for PLA to make such an early announcement on a project that is so strategically important. Also, I have also read enough rumbling through my Chinese sources to believe that 2018 is probably when the 4th generation plane enters service.
I actually even found a US newspaper covering this story. That article picked up this story from a recent Aviation Week entry. I guess the big question now is why Pentagon was so wrong in its predictions, because it actually said China will not have any 5th generation fighter by 2020. As I read this article, I even myself shaking my head reading these parts.
It's pretty well known in China that CAC is not only working on the J-10B project, but also is the main contractor for the next generation project. When the admiral made his statement, I find it hard to believe that the US military actually thought he was talking about an improved version of J-10 or J-11. Much of information on existing PLAAF projects are available online and Huitong's site even does a great job of putting everything together in place. If someone from the Pentagon bothered to check out his section on J-10B, which I can verify to be fairly accurate, they'd know that J-10B has already flied and would be in service years before the end of next decade. They are separate projects. In fact, J-10B must happen before the next generation project, because many of the subsystems will first be tested on J-10B. Here is another part that reflects pretty badly on the US intelligence community:
The Pentagon seems to have no clue on the progress of China's next generation project or its induction size. I've personally read enough sources to believe that this CAC design will have a small production run like F-22. There will be another next generation design that will form the lo-end of a hi-lo combination (like USAF is doing with F-22 and F-35), but that will come later. I've always found it interesting that the Pentagon seems to have trouble identify the number of each type of aircraft in service with PLA, because they have access to all open sources, secrets sources and the most comprehensive satellite images. I personally commend Scramble for doing a great job in identifying all of the Chinese air bases, order of battle and the plane type in each of the bases. In many cases, Scramble ORBAT is updated before even the most enthusiastic Chinese military forums catch hold of a new regiment conversion.
On a similar note, I saw that the ASBM story has landed on Bloomberg this morning. The most interesting part is here:
The fact that General Xu basically confirmed this weapon should tell you how far along it is. I think this is another development that took way too long to be identified and should've been taken more seriously when everyone was focused on the submarine threat. And with the ASBM story making rounds, the just as important story of the long range LACM deployment is almost totally disregarded.
In conclusion, I think that a lot of transparency complaints that the Pentagon throws at PLA are valid, but it is also unacceptable that the Pentagon would be caught off guard in so many cases. There are enough resources out there that can be researched to form much better conclusion on the progress of the Chinese military.
Of course, President Obama also visited China on this trip to discuss a series of issues. Climate change and currency valuation are probably the two biggest items on Obama’s agenda. I think for the former, China will continue to accept more responsibility, because it really is in its national interest to do so. We have basically seen the Chinese green energy industry explode in the last couple of years. Even though it has not made any firm promises on targets, it is actually making a lot of progress in every area. I think the Politburo will soon realize that they are already on pace to achieve targets that Western countries expect of them and actually accept some kind of commitment. Even so, I’m not sure if they will figure this out before the all important Copenhagen talks. In the area of currency valuation, I think Chinese leadership will totally miss the ball on this one. Even though it’s probably for their own good to let RMB appreciate, they will probably stubbornly tie their currency to USD longer than they should. With all of the public and private sector debts, it’s hard to imagine USD having anywhere to go but down. If China wants RMB to have some kind of role in a future world reserve currency, it would be much better if it can speed of the process of becoming a floating currency. On the flip side, if China let their currency rise, then it would not have to purchase as much treasury, which will force more purchase by the FED and accelerate the decline of USD. So while US wants China to let its currency rise, it also might not like the resulting affect. The right thing for China to do is probably let its currency rise. And the right thing for USA to do is to get its spending in order, cut down its debt and raise interest rate. However, neither side looks like they are willing to do the right thing.
On the security side, I think we all know by now what the biggest issues are on both side. I have always found the Chinese complaints over F-16 sale to be kind of funny. I am not entirely sure what the order backlog is like for F-16s, but I believe the following countries are still in the midst of receiving their F-16s: Turkey, Pakistan, Greece, Poland, Iraq and Morocco. Even if the F-16 deal gets approved and signed by next year, it will probably take until 2014 before the F-16s get all delivered. We recently heard that the next generation Chinese fighter will be ready in 8 to 10 years. I really don’t think this F-16 deal will help ROCAF as much as most people think it will. The concern I’ve always read from the Chinese military insiders is that they consider F-16 to be an offensive platform. If that’s the case, a deal can still be done without the latest multi-role weapons like JDAM and SLAM-ER.
The major US complaint over China is obviously the issue of transparency. In the past week, PLAAF made some announcements that were surprising to many people in both the transparency and the content. The deputy commander of PLAAF said that China's 4th generation fighter (5 generation for America) is expected to test flight shortly and also take about 8 to 10 years to enter service. In comparison, J-10 first flied in 1998, delivered to the PLAAF Flight Test & Training Base for evaluation in 2003, had first regiment regiment established in 2004, but still was not considered by Chinese media to have entered service until 2006 when they had already established 2 active regiments. F-22's production version first flew in 1997, commenced Initial Operational Test and Evaluation in 2003 and achieved FOC in 2007. If China's 4th generation fighter has a similar time line to J-10 and F-22, it would take about 8 years to go from first flight to service entrance. The first flight would have to happen in the next 2 years to achieve that 8 to 10 years promise. The interesting part is that Kanwa, which is well known for its flawed coverage on PLA, claimed that the 4th generation program had no chance of making its first flight in the near future. The funny part was that an expert from Chinese Air Force Command College replied by saying that PLA would never make an open announcement without believing that it will happen. I personally agree with latter, because it really is very unusual for PLA to make such an early announcement on a project that is so strategically important. Also, I have also read enough rumbling through my Chinese sources to believe that 2018 is probably when the 4th generation plane enters service.
I actually even found a US newspaper covering this story. That article picked up this story from a recent Aviation Week entry. I guess the big question now is why Pentagon was so wrong in its predictions, because it actually said China will not have any 5th generation fighter by 2020. As I read this article, I even myself shaking my head reading these parts.
In April, Adm. Wu Shengli, the navy chief, listed supercruising fighters among equipment that his service needed. Notably, all the other equipment on his wish list looked quite achievable by the end of the next decade, matching the timing that the air force now suggests for the fighter.
-----big gap-----
When Wu raised the prospect of a supercruising fighter, an easy answer seemed to be an advanced version of the J-10. That looks less likely now that He describes the future concept as a full generation ahead of the J-10.
“I believe the Chinese have a difficult road if their design is tied to the J-10,” says a U.S. Air Force officer involved in the development of the F-35. “Significantly reduced signature requires more than coatings. It requires an integrated design philosophy with the right shaping, the right structure and the right surface coatings.”
It's pretty well known in China that CAC is not only working on the J-10B project, but also is the main contractor for the next generation project. When the admiral made his statement, I find it hard to believe that the US military actually thought he was talking about an improved version of J-10 or J-11. Much of information on existing PLAAF projects are available online and Huitong's site even does a great job of putting everything together in place. If someone from the Pentagon bothered to check out his section on J-10B, which I can verify to be fairly accurate, they'd know that J-10B has already flied and would be in service years before the end of next decade. They are separate projects. In fact, J-10B must happen before the next generation project, because many of the subsystems will first be tested on J-10B. Here is another part that reflects pretty badly on the US intelligence community:
In his July 16 speech, Gates said that even in 2025 China would have but a handful of fifth-generation aircraft.
The Pentagon seems to have no clue on the progress of China's next generation project or its induction size. I've personally read enough sources to believe that this CAC design will have a small production run like F-22. There will be another next generation design that will form the lo-end of a hi-lo combination (like USAF is doing with F-22 and F-35), but that will come later. I've always found it interesting that the Pentagon seems to have trouble identify the number of each type of aircraft in service with PLA, because they have access to all open sources, secrets sources and the most comprehensive satellite images. I personally commend Scramble for doing a great job in identifying all of the Chinese air bases, order of battle and the plane type in each of the bases. In many cases, Scramble ORBAT is updated before even the most enthusiastic Chinese military forums catch hold of a new regiment conversion.
On a similar note, I saw that the ASBM story has landed on Bloomberg this morning. The most interesting part is here:
China’s ballistic missile “portends the sophistication of the threats that we’re going to see,” Roughead said in an interview earlier this year.
China has ground-tested the missile three times since 2006 and conducted no flight tests yet, Navy officials said.
‘Limited Capability’
General Xu Caihou, China’s No. 2 military official, played down the weapon’s significance.
“It is a limited capability” to meet “the minimum requirement of” China’s national security, Xu, vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, said in response to a question following an Oct. 26 speech in Washington.
The fact that General Xu basically confirmed this weapon should tell you how far along it is. I think this is another development that took way too long to be identified and should've been taken more seriously when everyone was focused on the submarine threat. And with the ASBM story making rounds, the just as important story of the long range LACM deployment is almost totally disregarded.
In conclusion, I think that a lot of transparency complaints that the Pentagon throws at PLA are valid, but it is also unacceptable that the Pentagon would be caught off guard in so many cases. There are enough resources out there that can be researched to form much better conclusion on the progress of the Chinese military.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Latest 054A and Carrier model pictures
This week has been pretty much been dominated by news about the air force. On top of the pictures and news I have already shown above, there have also been a lot of pictures coming out showing the latest toys of the air force. However, I think it's important to show the progress of the navy since that is still going on.
The first set below shows the the status of the island on both Varyag and the Aircraft Carrier model. It looks like they are about to put an APAR like the one on 052C on Varyag (or maybe they will put multiple face to give complete coverage). It's actually kind of strange for them to MFR on a carrier, because I really don't expect it to carry a long range SAM like HHQ-9 on there. I was more expecting HQ-16 with associated sensors like a Sea Eagle volume search radar with several Orekh FCRs to illuminate targets. It's possible that the data from APAR would be used to provide additional volume search and targeting data for escorts as well as for itself. If that was true, it could confirm CEC already existing with PLAN.
The pictures below are both from HuangPu shipyard. The first two shows the 4th 054A to be built in HuangPu shipyard. The last two shows the 3rd 054A from HP shipyard and it has just finished its sea trials. It has received the number 571, which means it will join the South Sea Fleet. The 3rd 054A from HD shipyard will then receive the number 569 and also join the South Sea Fleet (if we go by the standard PLAN procedure in commissioning new ships). That means 4 054A will be in South Sea Fleet, 2 054A + 2 054 will bein East Sea Fleet and no 054A will be in North Sea Fleet. It does make sense for the 4th pair of 054A to go to NSF, but we will have to wait and see. It is the neglected fleet in PLAN.
The first set below shows the the status of the island on both Varyag and the Aircraft Carrier model. It looks like they are about to put an APAR like the one on 052C on Varyag (or maybe they will put multiple face to give complete coverage). It's actually kind of strange for them to MFR on a carrier, because I really don't expect it to carry a long range SAM like HHQ-9 on there. I was more expecting HQ-16 with associated sensors like a Sea Eagle volume search radar with several Orekh FCRs to illuminate targets. It's possible that the data from APAR would be used to provide additional volume search and targeting data for escorts as well as for itself. If that was true, it could confirm CEC already existing with PLAN.
The pictures below are both from HuangPu shipyard. The first two shows the 4th 054A to be built in HuangPu shipyard. The last two shows the 3rd 054A from HP shipyard and it has just finished its sea trials. It has received the number 571, which means it will join the South Sea Fleet. The 3rd 054A from HD shipyard will then receive the number 569 and also join the South Sea Fleet (if we go by the standard PLAN procedure in commissioning new ships). That means 4 054A will be in South Sea Fleet, 2 054A + 2 054 will bein East Sea Fleet and no 054A will be in North Sea Fleet. It does make sense for the 4th pair of 054A to go to NSF, but we will have to wait and see. It is the neglected fleet in PLAN.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
J-10 and 4th Generation news
As part of the 60th anniversary of PLAAF, we have received a lot of new recently on the latest additions to PLAAF. Most of our information basically comes from 2 videos here and here.
A lot of interesting things were brought up here regarding J-10 and the 4th generation fighter jet project. If you don't already know, 3rd generation in China is 4th generation in the West and 4th generation in China is 5th generation in the West. In the videos, J-10 was mentioned as transforming China from cloning aircraft to developing its own aircraft. The emphasis was on finally being able to produce a home grown 3rd generation fighter for PLAAF. Some basic stats of J-10 included take-off distance of 350 m, having 11 hard points and payload of 6 tonnes. The pictures introducing J-10 to the August 1st flight demonstration team is as follows:
It had additional stats like length of 16.43 m, width of 9.75 m, height of 5.43 m, normal take-off weight of 12.4 ton (not really sure what the configuration is), maximum speed of mach 2.0 and operation ceiling of 18000 m. I think the maximum speed is probably higher than that from previous articles, but we probably will need to wait longer for complete information to come out.
In the videos, they said that J-10, J-11 and J-8 are the main force of PLAAF for the time being. 3rd generation fighter is already the main force of PLAAF. They also said that 4th generation fighter will make its first flight soon. After the first flight, it will begin test flight program. It can join service in 8 to 10 years. 4th generation fighter jet program have already been in development for a while, many parts have already achieved breakthrough like large turbofan engine, stealth technology and electronics. The goal of this plane is to reach the level of F-22. The videos say that J-10 is on par with the best of 3rd generation fighter jets, so China's 4th gen plane should also be expected to be on par with the best of 4th generation fighter jets world wide. The news of 4th generation fighter jets came from the deputy commander of PLAAF, so it should be considered pretty solid.
Below are photos from the TV shows showing possible look of the 4th generation fighter.
A lot of interesting things were brought up here regarding J-10 and the 4th generation fighter jet project. If you don't already know, 3rd generation in China is 4th generation in the West and 4th generation in China is 5th generation in the West. In the videos, J-10 was mentioned as transforming China from cloning aircraft to developing its own aircraft. The emphasis was on finally being able to produce a home grown 3rd generation fighter for PLAAF. Some basic stats of J-10 included take-off distance of 350 m, having 11 hard points and payload of 6 tonnes. The pictures introducing J-10 to the August 1st flight demonstration team is as follows:
It had additional stats like length of 16.43 m, width of 9.75 m, height of 5.43 m, normal take-off weight of 12.4 ton (not really sure what the configuration is), maximum speed of mach 2.0 and operation ceiling of 18000 m. I think the maximum speed is probably higher than that from previous articles, but we probably will need to wait longer for complete information to come out.
In the videos, they said that J-10, J-11 and J-8 are the main force of PLAAF for the time being. 3rd generation fighter is already the main force of PLAAF. They also said that 4th generation fighter will make its first flight soon. After the first flight, it will begin test flight program. It can join service in 8 to 10 years. 4th generation fighter jet program have already been in development for a while, many parts have already achieved breakthrough like large turbofan engine, stealth technology and electronics. The goal of this plane is to reach the level of F-22. The videos say that J-10 is on par with the best of 3rd generation fighter jets, so China's 4th gen plane should also be expected to be on par with the best of 4th generation fighter jets world wide. The news of 4th generation fighter jets came from the deputy commander of PLAAF, so it should be considered pretty solid.
Below are photos from the TV shows showing possible look of the 4th generation fighter.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Missile pictures with PLAN
With the PLAAF's 60th founding anniversary coming up, a bunch of TV programs have been showcasing newer portions of the air force. There is also a new museum showing different types of missiles in service with PLA. As part of the recent unveiling, we saw some pictures of the RIF long range SAM with 051C. These are probably the best pictures we've seen so far of the naval S-300 missiles purchased from the Russians.
The ones below showcase China's new shored based anti-ship missile YJ-62. The first 3 pictures show the command truck that comes with YJ-62 missile launchers. The operators in there get targeting data from reconnaissance targets and then launch the missiles to them. According to some sources in China, this was deployed along the shorelines as early as May of 2005. YJ-62's ship launched version can be deployed on the 052C class. I think this system is often overlooked in the face of the ASBM talk, because this missile actually has a 400 km range. The export version has a range of 280 km, because of the MTCR restrictions. Due to this range, it certainly poses a threat to possible USN ships in the theater and also all of the ROCN ships. And I think this is where the ASBM system would really help. By deploying a reconnaissance and data relay system capable of tracking ships from beyond the visual range, such a system could be used in both ASBM system and for your typical long ranged anti-ship cruise missiles. YJ-62's advantage over ASBM is its much lower cost, higher accuracy and rate of production. It obviously have major disadvantage to ASBM like shorter ranger and much higher chance of being intercepted. I certainly think that this missile along with the newly deployed long range LACM CJ-2000 are 2 systems that are totally overlooked due to the ASBM development.
The ones below showcase China's new shored based anti-ship missile YJ-62. The first 3 pictures show the command truck that comes with YJ-62 missile launchers. The operators in there get targeting data from reconnaissance targets and then launch the missiles to them. According to some sources in China, this was deployed along the shorelines as early as May of 2005. YJ-62's ship launched version can be deployed on the 052C class. I think this system is often overlooked in the face of the ASBM talk, because this missile actually has a 400 km range. The export version has a range of 280 km, because of the MTCR restrictions. Due to this range, it certainly poses a threat to possible USN ships in the theater and also all of the ROCN ships. And I think this is where the ASBM system would really help. By deploying a reconnaissance and data relay system capable of tracking ships from beyond the visual range, such a system could be used in both ASBM system and for your typical long ranged anti-ship cruise missiles. YJ-62's advantage over ASBM is its much lower cost, higher accuracy and rate of production. It obviously have major disadvantage to ASBM like shorter ranger and much higher chance of being intercepted. I certainly think that this missile along with the newly deployed long range LACM CJ-2000 are 2 systems that are totally overlooked due to the ASBM development.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)