The state of domestic military aviation projects

Over the past 5 years, we can see the dramatic improvement in the hardware of Chinese navy from all of the really nice new ships that have come out. As naval fleet has improved, it’s always been a wonder if the same advances can be found in aviation projects.

So far, we’ve seen both real success stories and areas where things are going slower than expected. In the civilian field, it seems like most of the projects are going rather badly. ARJ-21 is turning into a nightmare. At this point, it appears that AVIC-1 completely underestimated the work needed in integration that components, going through all of the needed test flights and most importantly actually certifying an aircraft. Even the certification process in China has dragged on way past the original delivery date. I think that C919 started off on a much better footing with greater involvement from foreign partners. However, we are now hearing news on those partners rethinking their commitment to the program and impending delay of maiden flight. These are not surprising since most major airliner projects experience delays these days. However, I think all that we have seen from ARJ-21 and C-919 projects would indicate that China has a lot to learn here. The learning curve in designing, certifying and building airliners is a very complicated process. There is a reason only Boeing and Airbus are capable of building the larger airliners. China needs to accept any help it can get from Western partners in an industry where few companies are willing to share their secrets. These are the reasons why China was so eager to partner up with Bombardier and also set up local production with Embraer and Airbus.

One of the bright spots in both civilian and military field is the improvements we have seen in the helicopter industry. There was a time when China was only capable of producing single digit number of helicopter per year, but that is no longer the case. When I first started following PLA, the insufficient number of helicopters was very obvious to see and widely talked about, but we have finally turned a corner. In this past 2 years, we’ve seen 5 new Z-10 regiments deployed on top of the original one in addition to 5 Z-19 regiments. That works out to be around 120 helicopters a year. This is on top of the different variants of Z-8 and Z-9 helicopters that we are seeing coming into service with various arms. We’ve seen civilian Z-8 (AC-313), Z-8J/H for the larger naval ships, Z-8K/A for the air force and 5 regiments of Z-8A/B for the army in transportation role. This trend should only get better as China continues to get more involved in the world’s helicopter market and have license to build more advanced turbo-shaft engines. The dual use nature of the helicopter industry has really allowed transfer of knowledge/technology from civilian projects to military projects. In a decade or so, the Z-15 project should become the work horse of PLA and PLAN. The Z-20 and the heavy helo transport project will also join service sometimes this decade, which will finally fill the void in 10 ton class and 20+ ton class.

Another relatively bright spot is in the development and deployment of UAV and UCAV projects. China has really been putting a lot of investments in the recent years in civilian and military UAV. Every Zhuhai air show, we see a host of new UAV models of display. Some of them have now been exported, while other ones have entered service with PLA or civilian arms. We’ve seen an increasing number of S-100 servicing in the navy, BZK-006 with the army while still waiting for the air force to settle on UAV and UCAV.

Moving onto the world of fighter jets, we can assess China’s progress by looking at AVIC1’s two big players: SAC and CAC. Two years ago, CAC looked to have finally become the top dog of AVIC1. J-20 had just been unveiled; J-10B was in the middle of testing and UAVs like Wing Loong and Soar Dragon were popping up everywhere. All this was on top of mass producing the backbone fighter jet of PLAAF (J-10) and PAF (JF-17). For much of last 2 years, it seemed like CAC was muddling along with not much progress while SAC was really well. It felt as if CAC had devoted all of its resources in developing J-20 and did not have enough left for other projects. Most recently, we have seen some good news out of CAC. It appears that CAC may finally be getting a third flying J-20 prototype (if that hasn’t happened already) and the low rate production for J-20 may have started. The J-10A production has finally drawn to a close with J-10B finally entering mass production after more than 4 years of test flight. There are also speculations of J-10C, but we haven’t seen any of that yet. In the world of UAVs, Wing Loong had its first export sales while soar dragon is finally making test flights. Probably the biggest deal recently was when rumour came out that CAC has beaten SAC for the next generation naval fighter jet project. So, we may see a naval version of J-20 in the future rather than J-31.

SAC have been enjoying a more successful past two years. It had received a lot of criticisms for slow progress in J-11B program and continued production of J-8 series, but a lot of those blames should be placed on Shenyang Liming and PLAAF. Since WS-10A mass production has really started, we’ve seen many new regiments of J-11B/S entering service with both PLAAF and PLANAF. J-15 and J-16 projects seem to also be going well recently, which has continued to raise their profile. I’ve definitely heard of some bad things in all 3 flanker projects, but Shenyang has been doing well with them over all. The J-31 project has also been a pleasant revelation in the past year or soon. Now, there is news that they are about to showcase a new 5th generation design that will be more impressive than J-31. Just as importantly, their stealthy UCAV design Lijian surprised a lot of people this year. As a whole, SAC has been very busy and showing a lot of good results.

Xi’an AC and Shaanxi AC have been progressing, but not seem to be advancing too much. We have seen continued production of JH-7A, but have not seen any possible replacement for it. It is quite possible that J-16 will be taking over that role and reducing XAC/SAC to only developing strategic bombers and transports. Y-9 and H-6K are nice improvements over Y-8C and older H-6 variants, but they are not next generational designs that would push forward Chinese aviation industry. It’s quite possible that most of their resources have been spent on the Y-20 project, which made its maiden flight this year. It will be a few more years before we can see mass production of Y-20. The one really bright area is the ever increasing number of Y-8 based special mission aircraft that have entered service. Hopefully, we will continue to see improved production rate in XAC and SAC factories, so that China will not have to depend on imported Il-76 /78 much longer.

The one area that has really been dragging China behind is aerospace engine. The problems experienced in WS-10A program caused delays in J-11B program. I think Shenyang Liming and other AVIC engine factories have really experienced the difficulties in taking a new design and maintaining quality/reliability in mass production. China has never developed a high performance turbofan engine like WS-10A before this, so the problems in J-11B should probably be expected. As we go forward with projects like WS-13, improved Taihang, WS-15, WS-18 and WS-20, it’s important to note that it takes time to really sort out issues with a new engine. Hopefully, AVIC1 has learnt lessons from Taihang projects in going from testing out a few prototypes of an engine to mass producing it. We have yet to see WS-13 really equipping JF-17, even though it should have happened by now. Until then, China’s Achilles Heel remains propulsion. Since Russia is not exactly fast with its new development, high priority aircraft projects will be delayed if these domestic options fall behind.

On a whole, China’s aviation industry definitely has experienced ups and downs in the last couple of years. We’ve seen some real improvements in many helicopter and fighter jet projects, whereas civilian aviation and engines have been struggling. As a whole, I think this part of the growing pain. China’s civilian aviation industry will need continued investment if it hopes to catch up to Western competitors. Military aviation projects can only benefit from that.

China's Type 32 class submarine

We've known about this class for a while, but it has now been officially unveiled as shown in image below.



For those who don't know, this is the super class conventional submarine with a lot of lada/kilo influence that was launched in Wuchang shipyard back in 2010. At the time, we thought it might be a new conventional submarine class to replace Yuan. However, it turns out this is basically a one ship class that will be used to replace the old No. 200 Gulf Class ballistic missile test bed. This will likely be used to test out ballistic missiles as well as new vertical launch system. It is Chinese navy's new submarine test bed.

Some more information on this class:

• Program was established in Jan 2005, ship launched in September 2010, completed test run by September 2012
• Was handed over Oct 16th, 2012 and has already started to be used for testing.
• It is double hull, has length of 92.6 m, 10 m width, hydroplane width of 13 m and largest height of 17.2 m.
• It has draft of 6.85 m when surfaced with displacement of 3797 tons. Its submerged displacement is 6628 tons.
• It operates at 160 m depth with maximum dive of 200 m.
• Its maximum surfaced speed is 10 knots and maximum submerged speed is 14 knots.
• Can operate with 88 crew for 30 days without resupply, or 200 crew for 3 days.

A little PLAN update

It's been a while since I posted due to work and personal commitments. Things haven't really stopped moving in the world of Chinese military, but it also hasn't been the most hectic spring season.

The biggest news from the past while is probably CV-16 (formerly Varyag) going on its first training exercise of the year out in the oceans. Since the take-off and landing tests in November of last year, they've been busy making preparations and training crew members in the naval aviation training facility close to Tianjin. There is a really nice thread here talking about the facility. From what we can see, the take-off and landing exercises in this second trip are done by the same two J-15 prototype aircraft that did the first one. Since J-15 has reportedly begun serial production, I was hoping to see more J-15 aircraft out in the ocean this time.

Other than that, Type 056 continues to be launched and commissioned into PLAN at a very fast pace. There have been at least 12 of them launched with at least 5 being commissioned. They are mostly replacing Type 037 currently in service with PLAN.

The production of Type 054A seems to be winding down. At least 15 have being commissioned now, with 3 more in HD shipyard that are in various stage of completion.

We are also seeing the unified Maritime Police fleet taking shape. Many of the larger cutters from CMS and FLEC have now been repainted and numbered into the new agency's colours.

And finally, I think one of the better articles I have read recently is this one by James Bussert. It's something I have been saying for a long time. You can see the scope of PLAN modernization by works done on their three weapon trial ships. For PLAN followers, this is the best place to look for what PLAN has in store.

PLAN amphibious development

For PLAN followers, the past couple of months have brought some really interesting developments for PLAN amphibious warfare. The first Zubr was handed over from Ukraine to China on April 20th and the construction of the second one is well under way. The original contract called for 2 to be built in Ukraine and the other 2 to be built in China. It remains to be seen whether or not PLAN will see the need to procure more than that.

Last year, we were introduced to a LHD design that Chinas was offering for export. A couple of months ago, we’ve seen this LHD design displayed for export to Turkey and also at Abu Dhabi. This mysterious design is said to be 211 m long, 32.6 m in beam and 26.8 m high for a displacement of 20,000 to 22,000 ton. It’s a little wider than Type 071 and has a flat top, so it can hold 8 helicopters with the hangar space for 4. This is an increase over Type 071, but I would imagine the first Chinese LHD (let’s call it Type 081) to be much larger than this (30,000 to 40,000 in displacement) and able to hold carry more helicopters and armored vehicles. I personally think PLAN has studied USMC long enough that it would also want the LHD to be able to support STOVL fighter jet. Such a ship would be much more complex than Type 071, but is well within the technical capabilities of Chinese shipyards.

More than anything else, the most interesting development for me to watch recently is the recent exercise involving 999, the second Type 071 ship, launching attack and overtaking a defended island in the South China Sea. While I’m sure this development scared a couple of people in the Phillipines and Vietnam, it was interesting seeing all of the news report videos talking about what they tried to do in that exercise. It was also interesting to see that Type 071 can carry more hardware than I previous thought. Its hangar is said to be able to carry 4 helicopters of Z-8 class (the main helicopter used with Type 071 right now). Its well deck can hold a maximum of 4 Type 726 LCAC. Although in reality, we’ve never seen more than 1 Type 726 and several fast attack boats in the well deck due to the fact that only 2 Type 726s have thus far been commissioned. Each of the Type 726 is said to be able to carry 2 IFVs and one tank. It can also apparently transport 80 soldiers. It can travel at 50 knots and can reach 55 to 60 knots. So, it’s an impressive hardware if China can build enough of it. In front of the well deck, there is also a door to a large compartment of 2 floors holding armored vehicles and other heavy machineries. We’ve also seen numerous photos of well deck holding 1 Type 726 along with 15 or more amphibious IFVs. Depending on the number of Type 726 and boats it carries, a Type 071 could hold different numbers of IFVs and tanks based on the mission. According to news report, Type 071 has allowed PLA to launch assault 40 nm from the beach.

In this recent exercise, we can really see PLAN practicing different kind of maneuvers and learning how to really use Type 071. Z-8s were used in flanking maneuvers to attack the rear along with Type 726 sometimes later. This is used to soften the opposition while amphibious IFVs and fast attack boats are storming the beach. The first Type 071 was commissioned at the end of 2007 and this was the first time we’ve heard about this type of exercise. Maybe this would have happened sooner if Type 726 was available earlier, but I think this also shows how long it takes PLAN to learn to start using a new ship like this. They still have a shortage of Z-8s and Type 726s when we consider how many Type 071 they already have. So they will have to ramp up the production of those assets if they want to continue training and developing more advance doctrines and tactics in storming a guarded coastline. They will also need more of those if they want to build a much larger LHD. Attention has been shifted away from PLAN’s amphibious build up over the past year due to the development of CV-16, but it remains an important part of PLAN modernization.

What to make of speculated deals for Su-35/Lada?

In the past week, there have been a lot of speculations regarding a deal where Russia would export 24 Su-35s and 4 Ladas to China.  Now, there have been official denials from Russian government and sukhoi has also not put this on their website.  That would indicate this deal is definitely not done yet.  I normally would ignore these su-35 rumours from Russia, but there have been enough support reading through the Chinese sources for me to think that there are serious discussions for this.  In addition, Chinese sources also indicate that there could also be sale of S-400 and IL-476 as part of a large deal.  Obviously, this would be the largest sale package from China to Russia since probably 2002.  I will just look at the individual parts of the deal and whether they make sense from a Chinese point of view.

Back in 2008 when the su-35 rumours first came out, it made sense for China to buy 2 or more regiments of Su-35.  As time went on, it seemed like the domestic flankers produced by SAC have been more or less satisfactory for PLA.  I often read on Western/Russian news sources about how they are shocked to see Russia is still willing to sell such an advanced aircraft to China even after China “cloned” Russian fighters, but those articles really do not seem to have a good grasp on reality.  We know that China has two “stealth” fighter jet programs under development that will probably achieve IOC sometimes toward the end of this decade, so it doesn’t make sense for China to buy and then “copy” a large number of su-35s.  Shenyang AC is actively developing and producing naval and fighter bomber versions of flankers in J-15 and J-16.  Su-35 is mostly an air superiority aircraft, so it’s not going to help those projects.  At the same time, China is also not exporting any of its flankers to other countries, so this export deal will not threaten Russia’s other export markets.

One of the reported reasons from Chinese side for purchasing Su-35 is the coming end of production of J-11B.  They have requirement for 1 regiment (24 aircraft) of air superiority version of flankers before the more advanced 5^th generation fighters can enter service.  While that is possible, I think su-35 will create a logistical problem in the future like the Sov destroyers with the Chinese navy.  They will need to maintain a new type of aircraft, a new engine, a new generation of Russian avionics and Russian missiles.  That would seem to be a lot of trouble for just one regiment.  That would lead to my conclusion that they are purchasing this strictly to get their hands on the 117S engine.  Russia made it clear to China early on that they would only be willing to sell 117S to China as part of a Su-35 order.  I think 24 is probably the minimum number of Su-35s that Russia would be willing to sell to China to allow Chinese access to 117S engine.  China does have the largest MRO plant for AL-31F outside of Russia.  All maintenance work for AL-31 is done inside China.  I would assume 117S maintenance and life extension work would also be done there.  Despite improvements in the reliability of WS-10A, I still read about problems found in deployment.  If there is one problem that can cause real delay in J-20, it would be not having a reliable engine solution in its development and early deployment.  117S would also be possible options for J-10 and J-15/16 projects.  If China does choose to purchase Su-35s, access to 117S engine would be the primary motivation.  And Russia would benefit by exporting su-35 and possibly large numbers of 117S engine later.

The deal for 4 Lada submarines is more interesting.  Many PLAN followers have asked why China would be interested in purchasing so many units of a submarine that Russia has not even accepted into its own service (its AIP system is not going to be ready until later).  Typically, China chooses to only purchase mature systems that it can quickly induct into service.  On top of that, it seems to some that Chinese submarines seem to have reached the technology levels of their Russian counterpart with that mysterious new conventional submarine in 2011.  The reality is that Chinese submarines still have a way to go in stealth.

As part of this deal, China will be getting transfer of technology along with local production for 2 of the 4 submarines.  On top of that, some unreported Chinese subsystems will be going onto these submarines.  So, the question is what is China providing as part of this submarine and what is it interested in?  The currently mass produced 039B submarine are already equipped with AIP system that can be installed on the Chinese version of Lada submarine.  On top of that, China could install its own sonar system and combat systems onto Lada.  The latter part should not be surprising since China has also installed its own sonar on kilo submarines.  What China seeks as part of this deal is the Russian’s design of Lada submarine and its noise insulation technology.  From Lada, China could learn how to design and build a single hull submarine with conformal sonar.  If we look at China’s new submarine that came out in 2011, it seemed to adapt numerous features from Lada submarine.  This submarine is supposedly one of a kind built to replace the old Gulf class ballistic missile test bed.  It is probably too large and expensive to be mass produced.  Based on their experience from this submarine and Lada project, it’s quite possible that China’s next series of submarine would look somewhere in between (possibly single hull) and have many of the features currently on Lada class.  Russia also has a lot to gain here, because it needs a new submarine for export to replace kilo.  Regardless of whether Russia chooses to use any Chinese subsystems for Lada in the future, Chinese involvement in this project will ensure that the export version of Lada becomes fully developed and commercially viable.

So while I’ve read numerous panic articles online about how this deal will significantly improve China’s capabilities and shift the cross strait balance of power even more toward China’s favour, I think those articles really show very little appreciation of China’s current military industrial complex.  While these purchases will help and speed up PLA development, they are by no means game changers.  However, these purchases will improve ties between the two countries at a time where Russia constantly complains about the trade imbalance.

Comparing Type 056 to LCS

With the recent induction of 056, a lot of comparison has been made between 056 and LCS.  The comparisons are understandable.  Both are just entering services.   Both are expected to be built in large numbers and are also considered to be the lower end ships of their respective navy.  In many ways, their comparison stops there, because Type 054A would be more comparable to LCS just based on the size and dimensions of the ships.  I want to break this down to two sections: the differences in capabilities/cost between the two classes of ships and what that tells us about the two navies.

First of all, despite both ships are designed for littoral operations, one is designed to operate in its own waters, whereas the other is designed to operate in enemy waters.  056 is supposed to replace 053 and 037 in the role of patrolling coastal waters.  It's equipped with enough strike power to conduct ASuW against other regional navy.  With some modification, it can also be useful in ASW operations in the littoral waters.  On the other hand, LCS is suppose to be faster, stealthier, far more modular and capable of operation in other country's littoral waters.  USN has no need for something like 056, since it faces no foreign naval threat within its coastal waters.  For any issues like smuggling, piracy and drug trafficking, it should be up to coastal guard to protect.  At the same time, China has no need for a littoral ship as large or fast as LCS, because it really has no need in the near future for a ship built specifically to fight in the littoral waters of a non-neighbouring country.  While most of the mission packages for LCS have yet to finish development, LCS will be capable of ASuW, ASW, MCM and special ops once that does happen.  You might see more dedicated ASW or ASuW variants of Type 056 coming out, but each ship is really not expected to be doing more than one task.

As a result of this difference in roles and size of the ship, there is also a large gap in the cost of the ship.  Each LCS cost over $400 million to build and equip.  That's about twice as much as the cost of a Type 054A.  Type 056 is expected to be a much cheaper ship than Type 054A, since it's much smaller.  My current estimate for Type 056 is around around 60 million just based on the cost of Type 022, Type 054 and equivalent sized cutters (which run for about $15 to 20 million each).  The relatively low cost of this should explain why China is able to build so many units in such short time while also build numerous other classes at the same time.  If this cost more, China would not be able to use it to replace all of the old Type 053 and 037 ships.  Despite the recent austerity in USN and the higher cost of American shipbuilding, USN still has a far higher budget than PLAN, so it could afford more expensive ships.

The size of crews also show us interesting things about the two navies.  I think the crew size for LCS is supposed to be at most 75, whereas the much smaller 056 is expected to have 60 to 70 crews (even that is a reduction to 1/3 of Type 053).  Even though Type 056 is far more complex and automated than the ships it is replacing, it's probably safe to say that it still lags modern Western ships.  I think a large part of that has to do with the greater number of service personnels at the disposal of PLAN.  Even with the rising labour cost in China, I think it's safe to assume that the compensation for a USN sailor is far higher than that of a PLAN sailor.  Another part to look at is the huge leap facing sailors who are accustomed to operating a low tech ship like type 037 (I was told no training is required to be on that ship) to type 056.  It's simply unrealistic to expect someone who has operated on Type 037/053 for their entire life to be able to be competent on something like LCS.  As PLAN continues modernization, this expected improvement in software is often overlooked when one looks at the new ships that are coming out.  The cost of training crew members will also go up as ships become more and more complicated.

Another interesting thing is the choice that the two navies made in developing these two ships.  LCS is a ship expected to be modular enough to be able to easily reconfigure for different roles by changing to different mission packages.  I expect different variants of Type 056 to come with each variant built with specific role in mind.  Similary to Type 037, I would expect to see a Type 056 emphasize more toward ASW and one more emphasized toward patrol and another more emphasized toward ASuW.  At the same time, LCS had the requirements to be able to travel at faster than 40 knots and also be extremely stealthy.  It certainly pushes the technological envelope, whereas Type 056 does not.  LCS is not only a new ship design but also requires new weapon system.  Whereas PLAN rarely builds a shipping class that requires leap in both the ship design and its weapon system.  I think this shows the background of both navies.  USN always had a lot of money to spend, so it is willing to press for that additional performance on the newest ships in the face of budget overruns and delays.  In comparison, PLAN had very little money back in the days and most of its programs was canned in the 80s and 90s due to lack of funding.  So as a result of this, it has always been more conservative in incorporating improvement from one shipping class to the next.  Compared to USN, PLAN is more frugal in the development of new ships and the management of its existing fleet.  As an example, Type 052 underwent modernization recently, but the old HH-7 SAM was kept around instead of being replaced by more advance HQ-10 SAM.  PLAN has a large stock of HH-7 missiles in stock and did not want them to go to waste by removing them from the ships undergoing modernization.  It will be interesting to see how the perspectives of the two navies change in the future as PLAN continues to get more funding whereas USN starts to face austerity.

A little write up on 056

I did a little write up today for Type 056 and here it is.

The first 056 class No. 582 was officially handed over to PLAN on the 25th of February as Wu Shengli, Commander of PLAN personally came to inspect the ship. While it is referred to as light frigate by Chinese news, it really should be classified as a corvette or OPV based on its size and displacements. This class is expected to be the next mass produced PLAN shipping class.

The type 056 class fills the gap between the 4000-ton 054A class frigate and 220-ton 022 class FAC. As of now, at least 9 other 056s have already been launched by the 4 shipyards building them. The overall number of this class is expected to be between the final count of 054A (probably around 20) and 022 (around 80). They are expected to replace the 10 Type 053 class Jianghu frigates currently serving in the South China Sea Patrol flotilla and the close to 50 Type 037 class missile boats.

In many ways, the type 056 hull is based on the Pattani class OPV that China built for Thailand from 2005 to 2006, although more signature reduction work is done such as the shielding of the funnels. Currently, 056 is equipped with 4 YJ-83s and AK-176M for ASuW missions along with a 8-cell HQ-10, AK-176M and two automated new single 30-mm barrel CIWS for self defense. Although the first few ships are not fitted with Towed Array sonar, it could provide some support for near sea ASW missions with a helipad large enough to hold Z-9C (and possibly Z-15 in the future), appearance of bow sonar bulb and 6 torpedo tubes installed in what looked to be the hangar. Most likely, the earliest 056 units will be used to replace Type 037s in the Hong Kong garrison and green water patrol missions. I expect a good number of Type 056 to eventually be used to patrol the disputed areas in South China Sea. Compared to the ships it is replacing, Type 056 requires 1/3 of the crew size of Jianghu class while offering more punch and similar endurance. Compared to Type 037, it should have better endurance, seakeeping and far stronger ASuW and AAW capabilities. It should be able to handle the naval threats from neighboring countries like Vietnam, Phillipines and Thailand. The goal is to free up larger ships like the Type 054A class and Type 052C/D class for blue water missions. In the future, I could also see ASW variants of Type 056 replacing the Type 037 sub chasers and more dedicated patrol versions of Type 056 with hangar large enough to hold 2 S-100 size UAVs.