Type 091 and what it tells us about China's nuclear submarine program

Recently, there were a rather significant release by Chinese news on the performance of PLAN's first generation nuclear submarines 091 and 092. While these news releases probably don't satisfy the curiosity of many PLA followers waiting to hear about the latest generation of attack subs, I find the release to be quite helpful in understanding PLAN.

One of the things I really enjoyed doing is comparing the 091 program to the CV-16 Liaoning project. Bear in mind, the two programs happened in two different periods of PLAN history. The construction of the first 091 started in the late 60s and the last unit did not launch until 1990. Its development lasted through the political turbulent years of 70s and the decade of military cuts in the 80s. In comparison, the CV-16 development lasted through this past decade when PLAN had its most budgetary and political support for naval power projection.

In spite of all of this, there are also similarities between the two program. In both cases, China had to go alone with almost no help from outside sources. As a result of this, both projects proceeded in a very methodical manner. Aside from the extended research before they start doing work on the ships, land based simulation models were built to help train the crew members. They did not try to do too many things too quickly. For CV-16, they first practised carrier take-off/landing on land based simulation air strip before trying touch-n-go on CV-16 before finally giving each of the original J-15 crew a chance to do take off/landing. In between each steps, PLAN took their time evaluating lessons before moving forward. As we go forward, CV-16 will gradually practice more complicated take-off and landing scenarios in its training process. In the 091 project, the entire test program went through multiple boats. No. 401 went through numerous testing after it joined service in the early 1970s before being forced back to the dry docks for extensive modifications 10 years later and not emerging again until 6 years after that. The long endurance patrol testing that one would expect out of something like an attack sub did not happen until with No. 403 in 1985. Only after No. 404, the first production version of Type 091, was in service did PLAN really finish testing of all the critical mission requirements. In 1988, No. 404 went through deep dive testing to 300 m, submerged torpedo launching tests and sailing at maximum submerged speed of 22 knots. Obviously, the testing period of 091 was very long (over 15 years), but one can see the similar gradual process of expanding on the mission envelope with carrier operations.

The big differences between the two program are obviously the technical preparedness and budgetary constraint of the two programs. China certainly walked into Type 091 project about as technologically limited as one can be in such a strategic program. The first two units were basically test mules that are already decommissioned. Even No. 404 and 405, the production certified units of the class, took 12 to 13 years from laying down to joining service. That's something CV-16 project never had to worry about. China was as ill equipped as one could imagine to start a program like 091 from budgetary, technology and political support point of view. It was as well equipped as it could be for the CV-16 project.

At the same time, looking at the 091 program can also give us clue about the current and future Chinese attack submarines. One of the biggest challenges for the 091 program was getting a safe working nuclear submarine into a submarine at a time when China could not even build its own civilian nuclear plant. One can imagine that the reactors in Type 091 boats experienced its shares of nuclear safety and reliability issues over time. Due to the low efficiency of its generators, Type 091 could only operate at a maximum submerged speed of 22 knots. So I think that the biggest change from Type 091 to 093 was having a safe and reliable reactor that can sustain a much higher submerged speed (say 30 knots). We know that it took 13 years to launch the last unit of Type 091. Let's say that time was cut to half ( 7 years ) fro the lead boat Type 093 class due to improved technology and funding, that would still mean the first unit would've been laid down in the mid 90s. At that time, China's civilian nuclear technology was only able to commission the Qinshan-1 CNP-300 plant employing first generation safety/efficiency. One could imagine that even with improved safety and reliability, these reactors on Type 093 probably weren't very efficient and quiet. The Chinese bbs rumours of pebble bed reactors for 093 are quite ludicrous when one actually thinks about the timelines.

Fortunately for PLAN, China's civilian nuclear industry has made a lot of progress since then. The second generation CNP-600 plants were used in the Qinshan-2 project that were connected to the grid in the early 2000s. With the recent proliferation/localization of CPR-1000 plants, transfer of technology from the AP-1000 project and the development of CAP-1400 power plant, the Chinese civilian industry should be able to design its own 3rd generation nuclear plant in the near future. If we assume that similar progress was made in the military nuclear reactors during the same period in noise level, safety and efficiency, it would reason that quieter and more powerful reactor would be available to power larger submarines. Seeing that the most recent 093B submarine was launch sometimes last year, it could be using a new type of reactor available in the early 2000s that would be a full generation ahead of the ones available for the first two 093s. That could lead to smaller/quieter/more efficient reactors allowing for more space for noise isolation technology and more power available for greater maneuverability. For the next generation of attack submarine (Type 095 class), it should be using a reactor from around 2010 that will be another generation safer and more efficient. If 091 and 093 programs are good indications, the first Type 095 will also likely to be a prototype unit that will have problems resolved in later unit.

Of course, all of that is speculations on my part, but we rarely get new information on China's nuclear submarine force.

PLAN passing through the Strait of Magellan

Here is a really nice photo of the first 052C, 170, passing through the strait of Magellan. It's the first time this has happened in the history of PLAN.


This is a symbolic illustration of PLAN's continual progress in becoming a blue water navy. No. 170 is in South America as part of a flotilla making port calls at Chile, Brazil and Argentina as shown in this article

SANYA, Hainan, Sept. 3 (Xinhua) -- Two Chinese navy warships sailed out from Sanya harbor in south China's Hainan Province Tuesday on a voyage to Chile, Brazil and Argentina. The fleet is made up of the missile destroyer Lanzhou and missile frigate Liuzhou, both serving in China's Nanhai Fleet, as well as the replenishment oiler Boyanghu serving in the Donghai Fleet, navy sources said. Boyanghu set off from base on Sunday and will join the other warships later. Their voyage will cover about 28,000 sea miles across the Pacific and to the South Atlantic via the Strait of Magellan. It will be the first visit of the Chinese navy to Argentina, the sources said. Lanzhou missile destroyer, with a full-load displacement of 6,400 tonnes, has served in a number of drills and escort missions in the Gulf of Aden and waters off Somalia. Liuzhou missile frigate has a full-load displacement of 4,000 tonnes.

The other two ships in this flotilla are No. 573 Liuzhou (a Type 054A FFG) and No. 882 Boyanghu AOR. Interestingly enough No. 882 is from a different fleet than the other two ships.

Chinese Firm wins Turkish Air Defense competition

In a surprise to many PLA followers, this news of China winning the Turkish Air Defense competition came out today. A lot of us had followed the competition, but thought Chinese and Russian bids were only sought out to bring down the price tag of Western companies. It turned out that an export version of HQ-9 has beaten out PAC-3, S-300PMU2 and Aster-30.

Clearly, this is a huge win for the Chinese military industrial complex. While this was not China's first export deal to Turkey (that would be WS-1B) or its first air defense export, Chinese firms have never won a major export deal like this in NATO countries. As shown in the dropping of price tag for $4 billion to $3 billion, the Chinese system obviously had a big advantage in price tag. Also, they are likely to be willing to share more technology and go for more local production than Raytheon and Lockmart. However, the lack of integration with NATO system along with general pressure from American government put both the Chinese and Russian bids at a disadvantage. What this result shows is that the Chinese system must have achieved at least comparable technical performance in the bidding process compared to its competition and probably won out due to cost + co-production.

On the other hand, one would think that S-300 would have similar advantages to Western systems. So, does this mean HQ-9 performed better than S-300PMU2 or was it more due to lower price? Either way, we do know that China has stopped purchase of S-300PMU2 while deploying new HQ-9 units. At the same time, there are also persistent rumours that China is looking to purchase S-400.

Going forward, I think we will only see Chinese firms doing better in international competition. SIPRI data from recent years have shown increased Chinese military export. Even if this deal does not go ahead, it really shows what PLA followers already know -> that Chinese military industrial complex is really catching up in many areas.

The Status of J-10 project

As China’s first advance indigenous fighter jet project, the J-10 program is one of the most important program of PLA. The most recent variant of J-10B made its first maiden flight in December of 2008, but CAC has been producing J-10A as recent as first half of this year.

Most recently, news came out of Chinese bbs that the first batch of production J-10Bs have started to make test flights. This news was not surprising since we had already seen pictures of J-10B production units inside CAC factory a couple of months ago. At the current rate, this first batch of J-10B should be delivered to the first regiment by the end of the year. Even though a lot of us were hoping that J-10B would be able to go into service by the end of 2011, it has taken 5 years for this to happen. When it goes into service, J-10B should be equipped with a new generation of integrated electronics systems consisting of PLAAF’s first fighter jet AESA radar, IRST, EW suite and new software architecture. J-10B is likely to serve as a testbed for various new technologies for J-20. In terms of engine, it will still be some version of AL-31FN for the first batch. AL-31FN has been improving with each batch, so it’s unknown if these new engines will bring additional thrust needed to carry the likely greater payload. There is also a speculated J-10C variant that is rumoured to make first flight later this year. It will be interesting to see how this variant will be different from J-10B.

As J-10A program draws to a close, the question we get is often how many are actually in service. We know that they have one PLANAF regiment of 24 J-10s. There are also 12 J-10AY and J-10SY serving at the August First Aerobatic Demonstration Team. Within PLAAF, there are 8 regiments (44th, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 24th, 9th, 15th and 12th) of 28 aircraft each along with probably 16 to 24 J-10s serving with FTTC. Based on the above, there are around 280 J-10s of various J-10/A/S units in service.

PLAN nuclear submarine development

As we see new Chinese warships come out, there is always the inevitable question of how capable are these new hardware. We can make assessments based on pictures we see and reports that we read. Nothing is harder to assess than nuclear submarines. We don’t get many pictures of them. We don’t know about the capabilities of sonar, torpedoes, combat system or the crew. And most importantly, parameters such as acoustic signature, maximum speed and depth are completely confidential. I have to rely on talking to folks who are much smarter than me on these issues, because I certainly don’t have the data or submarine background to do more than guess these things.

We know that the first 2 Type 093s were launched around 2002/3 and joined service in 2006. PLAN followers saw pictures of Type 093 coming out at that time and made optimistic assessment regarding follow-on units along with talks of Type 095 class. Most of us guessed that Type 093 was at or better than Victor III in acoustic performance (based on 1996 ONI assessment) and that Type 095 would be close to Akula I in performance. The interesting part is that PLAN stopped building Type 093s despite speculations and pictures of what appears to be new Type 093 submarines out of Huludao shipyard. Type 091s were upgraded and continued to be actively used. At the same time, a 2009 ONI study came out with chart indicating that they believe Type 093 to be louder than Victor III class and not that much quieter than Type 091. This chart caused a lot of anger online on Chinese military forums. Looking back, we can also see DoD reports of greater number of Chinese submarine patrols after 2006 along with comments from US naval services that they are able to track PLAN submarines at long range. If we combine this with the sudden stop of Type 093 construction, it would seem to indicate that Type 093 did not achieve the intended goals (of Victor III class?) in terms of noise level. At the same time, due to the greater reliability in reactor technology and improved sonar/combat system, these Type 093s and upgraded Type 091s were probably making a lot more extended patrols. I would imagine they get picked up as soon as they leave the naval base. Or else, DoD would not have such precise numbers of PLAN patrols. Certainly, Song and Yuan class have also been going out to sea for exercises, but they do not really have the endurance and would probably also expose themselves if they go too far out.

Based on everything I see, it seems like Type 093 had more reliable propulsion unit, but also a noisier one due to the need to generate greater power for a slightly larger submarine, more power sonar and higher speed/maneuvering requirements. Since the space for Type 093 probably did not increase that much inside pressure hull, they did not have much additional space for more noise insulation. At end of last year, we saw what appears to be a new type of attack sub coming out. Satellite pictures from Huludao earlier this year showed a new attack submarine and a new Type 094. This submarine was labeled as Improved Type 093 on Chinese forums. According to the latest report by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, China began building first of 4 improved 093 SSN in 2012. This improved Type 093 looks on the satellite photo to be slightly shorter and wider than the original Type 093. From the overheard satellite photos, it looks like this new submarine has a “hump” (like the one on kilo & Yuan) and a possible TAS installation on the tail. I would imagine the new submarines would have more space across for passive noise reduction technology, newer active noise reduction technology as well as newer generation of nuclear reactor. With the improvement in China’s civilian nuclear technology from the late 90s to mid 2000s, it is possible the newer reactor would be a lot quieter than the ones on the first two Type 093s.

This new attack submarine has now gone on sea trials. It is probably not considered Type 095, because a brand new class of attack submarine would probably have larger dimensions for more power nuclear reactor and associated propulsion gears along with more space for missile installation, sonar, living space and noise insulation. Everything I’m throwing out here is speculations. Up to now, PLAN hasn’t been able to develop a “quiet” attack submarine. USSR made a really big leap in Victor-III class (especially the later units). With lessons from the first 2 Type 093s, improved construction techniques along with other possible improvements, it’s possible that the improved Type 093 could make that leap (later Victor III units). Only time will tell where PLAN intends the performance of this improved Type 093 to be and if they will match the expected performance.

The same US-China Economic and Security Review Commission report also stated that China is continuing to build Type 094 while developing Type095 and Type 096. From past satellite photos, it looks like China launched its 4th Type 094 this year. There is at least one 094 at Sanya naval base and another at Jianggezhuang. The third one has moved around a bit, but the most recent photo from Huludao show two 094 at the piers. That could either be the 3rd and 4th or maybe a fifth one has launched. Although, I think the former case is more likely. The latest Type 094 seems to have its sail and missile installation shifted forward compared to the earlier Type 094s, but its overall dimension or the number of missile hatches did not seem to change. Compared to Type 093, I think type 094 is considered more or less successful by PLAN. The ONI charts indicated Type 094 to be quieter than Type 093 and the production of Type 094 didn’t stop for the same period as Type 093. I think PLAN is satisfied that it has a reliable second strike platform even if it is kind of loud.

As for Type 095, I think we are likely to see the lead unit of this class launched while the improved Type 093 is still under production. It is customary for PLAN to mass produce an earlier class while testing out the first unit of a new series. For example, Type 039 was still in production when the first Type 039A was launched. That would probably but the launching of first Type 095 toward the end of this decade. Type 096 would most likely come after that.

The state of domestic military aviation projects

Over the past 5 years, we can see the dramatic improvement in the hardware of Chinese navy from all of the really nice new ships that have come out. As naval fleet has improved, it’s always been a wonder if the same advances can be found in aviation projects.

So far, we’ve seen both real success stories and areas where things are going slower than expected. In the civilian field, it seems like most of the projects are going rather badly. ARJ-21 is turning into a nightmare. At this point, it appears that AVIC-1 completely underestimated the work needed in integration that components, going through all of the needed test flights and most importantly actually certifying an aircraft. Even the certification process in China has dragged on way past the original delivery date. I think that C919 started off on a much better footing with greater involvement from foreign partners. However, we are now hearing news on those partners rethinking their commitment to the program and impending delay of maiden flight. These are not surprising since most major airliner projects experience delays these days. However, I think all that we have seen from ARJ-21 and C-919 projects would indicate that China has a lot to learn here. The learning curve in designing, certifying and building airliners is a very complicated process. There is a reason only Boeing and Airbus are capable of building the larger airliners. China needs to accept any help it can get from Western partners in an industry where few companies are willing to share their secrets. These are the reasons why China was so eager to partner up with Bombardier and also set up local production with Embraer and Airbus.

One of the bright spots in both civilian and military field is the improvements we have seen in the helicopter industry. There was a time when China was only capable of producing single digit number of helicopter per year, but that is no longer the case. When I first started following PLA, the insufficient number of helicopters was very obvious to see and widely talked about, but we have finally turned a corner. In this past 2 years, we’ve seen 5 new Z-10 regiments deployed on top of the original one in addition to 5 Z-19 regiments. That works out to be around 120 helicopters a year. This is on top of the different variants of Z-8 and Z-9 helicopters that we are seeing coming into service with various arms. We’ve seen civilian Z-8 (AC-313), Z-8J/H for the larger naval ships, Z-8K/A for the air force and 5 regiments of Z-8A/B for the army in transportation role. This trend should only get better as China continues to get more involved in the world’s helicopter market and have license to build more advanced turbo-shaft engines. The dual use nature of the helicopter industry has really allowed transfer of knowledge/technology from civilian projects to military projects. In a decade or so, the Z-15 project should become the work horse of PLA and PLAN. The Z-20 and the heavy helo transport project will also join service sometimes this decade, which will finally fill the void in 10 ton class and 20+ ton class.

Another relatively bright spot is in the development and deployment of UAV and UCAV projects. China has really been putting a lot of investments in the recent years in civilian and military UAV. Every Zhuhai air show, we see a host of new UAV models of display. Some of them have now been exported, while other ones have entered service with PLA or civilian arms. We’ve seen an increasing number of S-100 servicing in the navy, BZK-006 with the army while still waiting for the air force to settle on UAV and UCAV.

Moving onto the world of fighter jets, we can assess China’s progress by looking at AVIC1’s two big players: SAC and CAC. Two years ago, CAC looked to have finally become the top dog of AVIC1. J-20 had just been unveiled; J-10B was in the middle of testing and UAVs like Wing Loong and Soar Dragon were popping up everywhere. All this was on top of mass producing the backbone fighter jet of PLAAF (J-10) and PAF (JF-17). For much of last 2 years, it seemed like CAC was muddling along with not much progress while SAC was really well. It felt as if CAC had devoted all of its resources in developing J-20 and did not have enough left for other projects. Most recently, we have seen some good news out of CAC. It appears that CAC may finally be getting a third flying J-20 prototype (if that hasn’t happened already) and the low rate production for J-20 may have started. The J-10A production has finally drawn to a close with J-10B finally entering mass production after more than 4 years of test flight. There are also speculations of J-10C, but we haven’t seen any of that yet. In the world of UAVs, Wing Loong had its first export sales while soar dragon is finally making test flights. Probably the biggest deal recently was when rumour came out that CAC has beaten SAC for the next generation naval fighter jet project. So, we may see a naval version of J-20 in the future rather than J-31.

SAC have been enjoying a more successful past two years. It had received a lot of criticisms for slow progress in J-11B program and continued production of J-8 series, but a lot of those blames should be placed on Shenyang Liming and PLAAF. Since WS-10A mass production has really started, we’ve seen many new regiments of J-11B/S entering service with both PLAAF and PLANAF. J-15 and J-16 projects seem to also be going well recently, which has continued to raise their profile. I’ve definitely heard of some bad things in all 3 flanker projects, but Shenyang has been doing well with them over all. The J-31 project has also been a pleasant revelation in the past year or soon. Now, there is news that they are about to showcase a new 5th generation design that will be more impressive than J-31. Just as importantly, their stealthy UCAV design Lijian surprised a lot of people this year. As a whole, SAC has been very busy and showing a lot of good results.

Xi’an AC and Shaanxi AC have been progressing, but not seem to be advancing too much. We have seen continued production of JH-7A, but have not seen any possible replacement for it. It is quite possible that J-16 will be taking over that role and reducing XAC/SAC to only developing strategic bombers and transports. Y-9 and H-6K are nice improvements over Y-8C and older H-6 variants, but they are not next generational designs that would push forward Chinese aviation industry. It’s quite possible that most of their resources have been spent on the Y-20 project, which made its maiden flight this year. It will be a few more years before we can see mass production of Y-20. The one really bright area is the ever increasing number of Y-8 based special mission aircraft that have entered service. Hopefully, we will continue to see improved production rate in XAC and SAC factories, so that China will not have to depend on imported Il-76 /78 much longer.

The one area that has really been dragging China behind is aerospace engine. The problems experienced in WS-10A program caused delays in J-11B program. I think Shenyang Liming and other AVIC engine factories have really experienced the difficulties in taking a new design and maintaining quality/reliability in mass production. China has never developed a high performance turbofan engine like WS-10A before this, so the problems in J-11B should probably be expected. As we go forward with projects like WS-13, improved Taihang, WS-15, WS-18 and WS-20, it’s important to note that it takes time to really sort out issues with a new engine. Hopefully, AVIC1 has learnt lessons from Taihang projects in going from testing out a few prototypes of an engine to mass producing it. We have yet to see WS-13 really equipping JF-17, even though it should have happened by now. Until then, China’s Achilles Heel remains propulsion. Since Russia is not exactly fast with its new development, high priority aircraft projects will be delayed if these domestic options fall behind.

On a whole, China’s aviation industry definitely has experienced ups and downs in the last couple of years. We’ve seen some real improvements in many helicopter and fighter jet projects, whereas civilian aviation and engines have been struggling. As a whole, I think this part of the growing pain. China’s civilian aviation industry will need continued investment if it hopes to catch up to Western competitors. Military aviation projects can only benefit from that.

China's Type 32 class submarine

We've known about this class for a while, but it has now been officially unveiled as shown in image below.



For those who don't know, this is the super class conventional submarine with a lot of lada/kilo influence that was launched in Wuchang shipyard back in 2010. At the time, we thought it might be a new conventional submarine class to replace Yuan. However, it turns out this is basically a one ship class that will be used to replace the old No. 200 Gulf Class ballistic missile test bed. This will likely be used to test out ballistic missiles as well as new vertical launch system. It is Chinese navy's new submarine test bed.

Some more information on this class:

• Program was established in Jan 2005, ship launched in September 2010, completed test run by September 2012
• Was handed over Oct 16th, 2012 and has already started to be used for testing.
• It is double hull, has length of 92.6 m, 10 m width, hydroplane width of 13 m and largest height of 17.2 m.
• It has draft of 6.85 m when surfaced with displacement of 3797 tons. Its submerged displacement is 6628 tons.
• It operates at 160 m depth with maximum dive of 200 m.
• Its maximum surfaced speed is 10 knots and maximum submerged speed is 14 knots.
• Can operate with 88 crew for 30 days without resupply, or 200 crew for 3 days.