New PLAAF regiments

Over the past year, we really haven't seen much movement on the J-10 front. J-10B's prototype 1035 has been testing for a long time, but we've basically seen the same batch of J-10s in yellow primer conducting test flights out of CAC. The batch 06 was first sighted in late 2010 and then all the way through 2011. Finally, we are seeing this batch of J-10s getting delivered. Most recently, we see some J-10S painted in PLAAF with serial number 20x6x ready to join service in the 15th division at Datong.

So, it would seem like this is the last J-10A/S regiment. Scramble has also updated this 43rd regiment of 15th division to be a J-10 regiment.

At the same time, we've also identified 2 new JH-7A regiments in service with PLAAF. First of all, the 28th division seems to be getting a second regiment. There is a new JH-7A with the serial number 31098 showing up recently. According to Scramble, this new regiment (the 84th regiment) started to be replaced with JH-7A from late 2011. At the same time, a new JH-7A regiment seems to have been established in the 110th Air Brigade (4xx8x, where xxx is 050-099). This Air Brigade was formerly of the 37th division. It seems like PLAAF is doing some experimentation with orbat recently and the 37th division became 3 air brigades. This would also include the J-11B/S serving under the 111th Air Brigade. From what I can tell, 37th division is the only one that has been transformed this way in PLAAF thus far.

PLAN conventional submarine fleet update

About a year ago, I wrote an entry on the Chinese submarine fleet. In that article, I talked about the different submarine classes in service with PLAN and a little bit on their history. When it comes to the development of new submarine classes, China typically follows the line of building one experiment boat of that class, followed by 3 or more boats that fixed the problems found in the first of the class and follows up with a slightly modified variant that gets mass produced. The change from the first unit and the 2nd batch is normally quite significant. The change from the 2nd batch and the third batch is generally quite minor from the outside, but more significant on the inside (improvements in sonar, combat system, fire control system and such). A lot of times we see two programs going on at the same time where one class is getting mass produced at the same time a follow-on class's first experimental boat is getting tested out. This development process has allowed PLAN's submarine fleet modernize at a faster rate than any other arm of PLAN (with the exception of Fast Attack Crafts).

A few years ago, most of the China threat group was alarmed at China's emerging force of conventional submarines. That has changed in the recent years as the ASBM project, the carrier project and nuclear submarines have really shifted their attention. At the same time, the growing fleet of 054As and larger surface ships like Type 071 and No. 866 hospital ship have also garnered a lot of attention. For PLAN followers like myself, it's easy to get drawn to the monthly updates of photos coming out of HD, JP and JN shipyard. Since most of submarines are produced at WuChang shipyard, we don't get as many submarine photos during production or during service. Since most of the pictures we get of conventional submarines don't have number painted on them, it's also hard for someone like myself to keep track of their numbers and their deployment. All of this leads to less attention paid to the conventional submarine program by everyone. Needless to say, the modernization of conventional sub force has not stopped in the process. So, this entry will look at some of the changes we have seen in the last couple of years.

First, I want to take a look at the structure of the conventional submarine force. There are 6 submarine flotilla split among the 3 fleets. The 2nd and 12th flotilla belong to the North Sea Fleet, 22nd and 42nd belong to the East Sea Fleet, whereas 32nd and 72nd belong to the South Sea Fleet. There is also a hierarchy within PLAN over the disbursement of the submarines. Due to its proximity to Taiwan and the proximity of the first chain of islands, East Sea Fleet is normally the first force that gets the new submarines. At the moment, all of the active submarines in ESF are what I call the 3rd generation submarines (either Song, Yuan or Kilo). All of the recent submarines from WuChang also gets tested out in one of the East Sea Fleet naval bases near Shanghai before they get commissioned. The South Sea Fleet seems to be next fleet in line. Back in the 90s, South Sea Fleet's submarine fleet was probably the weakness of the three fleets. At the time, the 52nd submarine flotilla had disbanded and SSF was left with just the 32nd submarine flotilla. This decision was probably made due to the many years of reduction in China's defense budget. The weakness of SSF's submarine fleet was one of the reasons that Vietnam was able to occupy some of the spratly islands. PLAN realized that it made a big mistake and established the 72nd submarine flotilla early in the 2000s along with the 31st nuclear submarine flotilla. The Ming class submarines from 32nd flotilla was transferred to the 72nd flotilla while it received the newer Song and Kilo class submarines. The North Sea Fleet is probably the weakest of the three fleets. For the longest time, NSF was the only fleet that had nuclear submarines, so it was always left to receive the oldest conventional submarines. With the recently modernization efforts, the 2nd flotilla is now almost completely equipped with Song class submarines. Although, the 12th flotilla probably still consists of the earliest variant of Ming class. These submarines are vastly outclassed by their Japanese or Korean counterparts.

Now, I want to look at the orbat changes in the last few years and the expected changes in the future. From what I can tell, the two flotilla of SSF has not changed recently. The 32nd flotilla consists of 4 Song and 4 Kilos, whereas the 72nd flotilla consists of 8 improved ming class submarines. The 42nd flotilla of ESF also has not changed, since the kilo submarines are still front line submarines. As Yuan class submarines have started joining the 22nd flotilla of ESF, the Song class submarines were getting transferred to NSF. The first four Yuan submarines (330 to 333) were transferred by 2009. Over the past year, there have probably been 3 or 4 more Yuans (334 to 337??) that have joined. At the current time, this flotilla has 2 song submarines and 7 or 8 Yuan submarines. By this point, the 2nd flotilla has already received 7 Song submarines. Obviously, the last 2 song will be transferred out to the 2nd flotilla at some point. One of the questions is what happened to the submarines that were previously there. It seems like PLAN has been fairly reluctant to just retire the old submarines. Some of the 033 submarines have been kept around for training purposes, but they will obviously have to start decommissioning the older 035s and 033s very soon. I think PLAN is unlikely to form a new conventional submarine flotilla, so the overall number of active submarines will be kept around 48. At current time, they have 12 kilos + 13 Songs + 8 Yuan = 33 submarines that would be considered as fairly new. If we discount the first experimental Song that was launched in 1994, they still only have to replace another 16 submarines before the Ming class submarines will all need to be retired. While up to 5 conventional submarines can be produced every year at the two shipyards, we will most likely see 3 submarines getting produced every year (due to budgetary constraints). At this pace, the replacement will be done by late this decade. The ming class submarines in 72nd flotilla were produced from 1994 to 2001. If they get replaced by 2020, they would've only been in service for 20 years. It's really hard to see PLAN take something that's only 20 years old out of service, even if it's obsolete. So, I wonder what will happen to them.

Thirdly, I want to look at what kind of threats each fleet are facing and whether the fleet that they have is suited for that task. The East Sea Fleet will continue to be opposite to Taiwan, so it will need to be prepared to be a deterrent against possible US intervention. As such, the most modern conventional submarines will be placed in ESF for anti-shipping missions and also ASW missions. It will likely continue to receive the newest conventional submarines. At the same time, the natural barrier of the first chain island and surrounding naval forces traps in the ESF, so ESF is unlikely to have nuclear submarine fleet in the future. The North Sea Fleet is surrounded by the much superior Japanese and Korean submarine fleet. It is also trapped by the extremely well equipped and trained Japanese ASW units. I think NSF is currently woefully equipped considering it's conditions. Like the rest of the fleet, the submarine flotillas have been the last to receive the Song submarines. And even when it does receive them, it gets the submarines that ESF no longer needs. For the longest time, this was balanced by the fact that NSF was the only one that had nuclear submarines, but that's no longer the case. Going forward, it's hard to see the newer nuclear submarines getting deployed here when it is completely surrounded by Japan and South Korea. For the next decade, this situation is unlikely to change, so NSF will continue to be inadequately equipped to handle possible threats. Finally, South Sea Fleet probably faces the weakest of surrounding navies. Even the Ming class submarines are capable of handling the threats from Vietnam and Phillipines. South Sea Fleet continues to be the main blue water fleet in PLAN, so one would expect that more nuclear submarines will be deployed here. Also compared to the other two fleets, conventional submarines in SSF are not trapped by first chain of island and foreign naval force, so the current conventional fleet is actually already suitable for the threats in its area. Due to the growing influence of SSF, I think it will get newer submarines before NSF even though NSF has much greater needs for those boats.

Overall, it's to see that the modernization of PLAN's conventional submarine fleet is still going very rapidly. It will most likely complete ahead of other part of PLAN's fleet. The submarines are deployed in a very unusual manner where the elite flotillas continue to get upgraded to newer submarines while the other flotilla pick up the scraps. From the service, this seems like something that will be problematic in the future. It will probably create resentment within PLAN toward the elite flotilla, although that might be an accepted practice of PLA. The more concerning part is that different flotilla will be continually trained for newer submarines. Rather than serving 20 years on the same boat, the sailors in the 22nd flotilla are probably changing to new submarines every 10 years. When I think about the time that it takes to properly train sailors to operate a new submarine, that seems to leave not much time for routine trainings and patrols. As mentioned previously, some of the Ming submarines may be removed from active duty after less than 20 years of service. What will happen to these submarines once this happens? As we move forward, the Song submarines are still relatively loud even though they are modern by Chinese standards. Even the latest submarine that we saw out of WuChang shipyard is still behind the acoustic levels of the most advanced conventional submarines around the world. What will the next generation of Chinese submarines look like? As PLAN becomes more of a blue water fleet and expands its nuclear submarine force, what kind of roles will the conventional submarines play? Will Chinese submarines become bigger players in the export market? These are all things that I'm looking forward to see.

Update from PLAN land

Every year, Chinese shipyards around the country stops working around Chinese New Year. Since Chinese New Year is less than a week away, we got some last minute photos from the Chinese shipyards.

First of all, we see the first two 056 class ships from HuDong shipyard. Now, there is also 056 under construction in HP shipyard, but these ones are more prominent and seem to be further along. There is still a debate on why PLAN even needs these ships, but that's a discussion for another day.



Secondly, we the work on 054As at HP shipyard continues to be extremely fast paced. The fifth ship (548) came back for work in HP shipyard.

The 7th one was launched a while ago.

The 8th one is amazingly far along considering the 6th 054A at HD shipyard just got launched a short while ago.


Finally, we got some new and interesting photos out of JN shipyard.
It looks like the 5th 052C just got launched very recently. The 3rd one has made a return to the shipyard after all the sea trials. I thought it was already commissioned. The next 3 photos show them from different angles. The 3rd one is definitely joining the navy soon. The 4th one has quite a bit to go before being ready to conduct sea trials. The 5th one looks to be slightly less finished than the 3rd and 4th one when they were launched. My feeling is that it was launched at this point because they needed the spaces in the dry dock halls for new ships.



We see below two new ships going into the dry docks and they appear to be the 6th and 7th 052C. I'm not sure if both of them will be 052C, because the rumour is that 7th ship would be in the 052D series.


So, there is a lot of activity going on in the Chinese shipyard. The work will probably stop a month, so we won't have much to see for a while.

I will be posting less often in the coming months

Hi everyone,

As you guys probably have noticed, I'm posting less frequently than I used to. The reason is that I got engaged a month ago and simply need to spend most of my free time preparing for my upcoming wedding rather than talking about Chinese military. That does not mean I will stop posting, but that I will be posting less frequently. Also with the upcoming Chinese New Years, there is just not as much news coming out as other parts of the year. Cheers everyone.

Feng

The year that was and the year that is coming for PLAAF

This past year was a really interesting one for PLAAF. The unveiling and first flight of the J-20 project early on in the year really set up wide spread interest inside and outside of China. While PLAAF had numerous worthy developments, this was definitely the biggest story of the year and continued to occupy our interest throughout the year. As the year progressed, we saw J-20 making more and more test flights until the news/pictures of J-20 test flights became old news.

I have followed PLAAF for many years, but the J-20 project has really transformed the way I look at PLAAF in many ways. I think I was most struck by how relatively transparent the J-20 project has been compared to other past PLAAF projects. When the J-10 project was in development, there were a continuous barrage of photoshoped and fake J-10 pictures until well into the middle of this past decade. In fact, I don't think the first real J-10 picture came out until 2001 (3 years after the first flight). While security around high profile PLAAF projects have loosened up over time as we saw with the unveiling of J-10B and J-11B project shortly after their first flight, I was still expecting a couple of years of fake J-20 photos before genuine stuff comes out. Even if you had asked me in November of 2010, I could not have predicted seeing this many photos and videos of J-20 making test flights from CAC. After all, even a project looking for export orders like Russia's PAK-FA has not been covered to this extent. Obviously, the increasingly more open Chinese society and the evolution in Internet and photo technology has made it more difficult than ever to hide a project like J-20 in a crowded city. Even so, I think this shows China is increasingly confident about its domestic industry. It feels good about displaying its latest technology to the world. In addition, it seems that CAC has much more relaxed security than SAC, because we have seen far more photos from CAC than SAC. In 2012, I expect to see more J-20 photos coming out. Hopefully, there will be one more prototype for flight testing, but it will be several more years before we start seeing production version of J-20. Just as importantly, the progress of the WS-15 project will be something important to focus on. Although, we might not get any kind of update this year.

As we see photos out of CAC of J-20, we also see plenty of photos of J-10 coming out. By now, we have identified 7 regular J-10 regiments, 1 FTTC J-10 regiment and 12 J-10s with August First flight demonstration team. It seems like there were enough J-10As produced this year to equip one more regiment. J-10B has been conducting flight testing for a little over 3 years now, so I would expect the production to shift to J-10B next year. We saw increasing number of photos of J-10B this year including No. 1035, which flies with WS-10B engine. We also saw that J-10B is equipped with some type of electronically scanned radar. Although there are still debates over whether the radar is active or passive, I have read enough sources to believe that it is equipped with AESA radar. Once it enters service, J-10B should be the most capable air combat fighter jet in service. In 2012, I will be looking to see where the last J-10A regiment will be at and where the first J-10B regiment be sent to.

There were also some other acitivity coming out of CAC. The JF-17 project has yet to obtain any new customer, but it continues to get more orders from Pakistan. We can also see more pictures of prototype 06 conducting different kind of testing out of CAC. In 2012, I'm hopeful that JF-17 will land more customers and read about more JF-17 development in PAF. Not much news have come out regarding the WS-13 project, so it's hard to say when JF-17 will be able to remove RD-93 from the supply chain. Another aircraft that we saw this year out of CAC is the Soaring Dragon UAV. CAC's previous UAV effort in Sky Wing did not seem to go anywhere. So in 2012, I will be looking out to see whether this Soaring Dragon will make any in road into PLAAF.

SAC has also had a lot of activity in the past year. Since Taihang has now finally started to be mass produced, J-11B/S production has really ramped up in the past couple of years. We are seeing J-11B/S in at least 4 regiments and possibly more. Most importantly, the production version of Taihang is finally getting the kind of production usage needed to sort out all of the problems. Once these fixes are applied, we will start seeing Taihang equipped on J-10B and J-15. We also saw a lot of J-15 photos this year, including one prototype that is equipped with Taihang. I think that J-15 will have to be installed with Taihang when joining service, so it's good to finally see a Taihang J-15. As we stand with the 3rd sea trial of Varyag completed, I think that J-15 will not be ready to take-off and land on Varyag for another year or two. In 2012, we should watch to see possible new J-11B regiment and the appearance of the mysterious J-16 project. I definitely think SAC is developing a fighter bomber, whose photos should come out next year. However, I still have some doubts about the mysterious 4th generation SAC project. Even though many sources have stated this aircraft is about to appear in the near future, I think we should tamper our expectations until actually seeing photos coming out.

We don't see nearly as much news coming out of other Chinese aircraft companies. There were some rumbling of a new JH-7B variant, but that has turned out to be fakes. H-6K project seems to have ramped up with the signing of more D-30KP2 engines. L-15 project has finally started low rate production, but it is still not ready for PLAAF (partially due to the foreign engine). JJ-9 has joined PLA in good numbers and even got navalized. I don't think JJ-9 has defeated the L-15 project, but Hongdu does have to show PLAAF that L-15 is the right choice. In 2012, I expect to finally see the first flight of the large domestic transport project. At the same time, the Y-9 project should also finally take its first flight. In both areas, PLAAF badly needs these projects to be sucessful. Shaanxi AC also needs to be able to ramp up production to support transport orders and special missions unit.

As with all even years, a Zhuhai air show will be held in 2012. I'm excited to see what new products will come out in this next Zhuhai air show. We will hopefully see displays of more UAVs, PGMs, ground attack missiles, air-to-air missiles, aero engines and different types of avionics. We often get to see more exciting PLAAF developments in Zhuhai than at any other time of the 2 years cycle. I have read about numerous new air-to-air missiles and have seen some possible photos of them. Hopefully, we will start seeing the next generational of Chinese IR guided short range and radar guided medium range AAMs showing up.

I think the appearance of J-20 alone has made this a really great year for PLAAF. The appearance of the often talked about 4th generation SAC project will make things even more interesting in 2012. Now that China has finally made some serious progress with Taihang production, I have slightly raised my hopes for future aeroengine projects. Compared to PLAN, PLAAF suffers from not having the same industrial production base. Even though AVIC1 has really been successfully developing new aircraft, the production level for most domestic projects are still not great. In areas like bombers, large helicopters and transports, AVIC1 just cannot produce enough of them. Even so, the improvements in subsystems like radar, E/O sensors, flight control system, medium range missiles, PGMs and engines have been really significant in the past few years. I want everyone to not just become enamored with J-20 or other new project, but also think about production level, industrial base, PLAAF training and PLAAF doctrine. I have talked extensively about the challenges that PLAAF have faced in bringing up the level of its training and doctrine. These are all things that make a first class air force. If these issues don't get addressed, even a successful J-20 project will not make PLAAF an elite air force.

Reflecting PLAN in 2011

2011 has been a really hectic year in PLAN world. Although I have personally not had a chance to post as many updates, this years has seen non stop activities around different shipyards. When I write annual reviews like this, I'm almost afraid that I will miss an important part. As I wrote previously, the second wave of PLAN shipbuilding activity begun in 2010. The pace has only picked up in 2011. This blog entry will explore this and much more.

During this past year, we have seen the Varyag project move into the sea trial stage. Varyag's first and second sea trials captured some headlines around the world and was discussed quite a lot on this blog. While Varyag will most likely function as a training and test ship in the coming years, it is the most noticeable step taken by PLAN to shift from a green water fleet to a blue water fleet. As China learns to operate its first carrier, it will be fun for PLAN and other naval followers around the world to see how China intends to operate future carriers. Personally, I have already been trying to identify the different close in defense systems and sensors they have installed on Varyag. One thing that seems certain is that PLAN would like to follow the path of USN rather than USSR in carrier doctrine. We have already seen them remove all anti-ship missiles and long range SAMs from Varyag to allow more space for other stuff (including hangar space). We have also seen the development of fixed wing AEW project as well as the purchase of Ka-31 and the ongoing Z-8 AEW project. The J-15 project is also expected to be far more multi-role than the original Su-33s. Basically, PLAN is trying to modify a carrier that was original designed to conduct ASUW on its own with a limited number of Su-33s providing air cover to a carrier that relies on its air wings for all aspects of naval warfare. The amount of electronics on Varyag's island also indicates that Varyag is not only expected to provide command & control for supporting fleet, but also targeting info in an integrated environment. As we move forward in 2012, it will be interesting to see the continuing evolution of this ship..

Aside from the much talked about Varyag, Chinese shipyards have continued to pump out naval ships capable blue water missions. The lead ship (866) of the Type 920 class hospital ship has also been quite busy this year. It has been an important part of PLAN's display of soft power and was sent around different third world countries on a good will tour. The Type 071 project has continued to roll forward with the induction of the second ship (999) into the same flotilla as the lead ship (998) and the launching of the third ship. We have also seen newer amphibious ships under construction in HD shipyard. In the past year, we have seen more evidence of PLAN learning how to operate something of Type 071 class with the induction of Type 726 hovercraft (Chinese LCAC). We have seen different helicopters take off/land on 998 as well as many amphibious vehicles (and even a MBT) operating from 998 and Type 726. Clearly, they are still learning to use it, but PLAN appears to be quite pleased with the Type 071 class. The new class of submarine tenders also saw two new units launched in Guangzhou shipyard. The lead ship (864) was equipped with the LR7 submarine rescue system from UK. It will be interesting to see if the next two continue to use that or an indigenous option. Consider they already have 3 other large submarine tenders, they may not be building any more ships of this class. Aside from these major naval projects, I find the launching and possible induction of the No. 88 "life style" ship to be the best indication of PLAN's blue water desires. From all of the pictures I have seen, this ship looks to be a ship where sailors (who have been out in the sea for a long time) can party and release stress. I guess that's PLAN's substitute to having port calls.

Aside from all of the larger ships, Chinese shipyards have also continued to building different classes of warships. The JiangNan shipyard is in the midst of building a second batch of 4 052C class ships. The first one seems to have already joined service with East Sea Fleet. The second one was launched a few months ago and will probably start sea trials sometimes after Chinese New Years. The third one looks to be close to launching and the fourth one is still just many large modules. We know that these ships are using indigenously produced QC-280 gas turbines rather than the original GT-25000 gas turbines from Ukraine. Other than that and probable upgrades and fixes to sensors and command system, I don't really see any change from the first two 052Cs. After these 4 052Cs, the next batch of JN destroyers will apparently have some real changes. We will probably not see these new ships until 2013. The two ships from the 052 class finished receiving their major upgrades this year. They should stay in service for a decade or two longer. I do expect old Type 051 class ships to start retiring in the next few years, but we will probably see the number of PLAN destroyers increase with the rumored production plans at JN shipyard.

The 054A project has also continued to sail along. These ships have proven to be very capable of long range missions in all of the deployments to Gulf of Aden. PLAN seems to be very pleased with its performance, because it has ordered more 054A than what was originally expected. At least 9 054A have joined service by now (4 in SSF, 4 in ESF, 1 in NSF). On top of that, 4 more 054A have been launched with one of them currently undergoing sea trials. I do believe that 054A production is drawing to a close and they will start producing 054B soon. The 054 series of ships should eventually replace the 053 series of ships. However, many of the 053 class ships are still quite new and have undergone upgrades in the past year. The 6 Jianghu-V ships (558 to 563) finished modernization this year and should continue to patrol South China Sea for a while longer. The 4 Jiangwei-I ships have received new TAS system in the past couple of years and appear to be going into docks for more upgrades. Similar to destroyers, the number of PLAN frigates should also increase in the next few years.

052C and 054A are part of PLAN's move to become blue water navy, since they are likely part of PLAN's first carrier group and expeditionary strike group. There are also newer littoral ships that are coming into service. The 022 class production have almost stopped completely now. Enough of them have been produced to replace all of the old FACs. We have been waiting for an OPV class to appear between 022 and 054A class to guard the littoral waters and patrol in South China Sea. For a while, it seemed like all of the newly built cutters will be taking that role, even though they are practically unarmed. Finally, the long rumored 056 class ships are now under construction in multiple Chinese shipyards. We have already seen 056 hulls forming in HuDong and HuangPu shipyard (part of the reason why I think 054A production is stopping), but smaller shipyards around the country are also expected to be building 056 ships. While I am still waiting to see how 056 will turn out, I do expect it to eventually replace a good number of 037s in the service. Some may even serve in the role of sub-chasers. MCM ships have also restarted productions again. This year, we saw the 5th Type 081 minesweeper class ship and the 2nd Type 082II minehunter class ship joining force. With the ramp up in production at JiangNan shipyard, I certainly expect to see more of these ships produced in the coming year. In this area, PLAN is finally catching up to the wave of MCM ships that came out in Europe in the 90s. PLAN will need to develop blue water MCM capability eventually, but they need to learn how to use these things first. And finally, numerous 039B class (Yuan) submarines entered service this year. I have now completely lost track of the count, since they don't paint numbers on the diesel submarines. I think at least 3 039B from Wuhan shipyard and 1 039B from JiangNan shipyard joined service. The mysterious new diesel submarine that some have named Qing class seems to be undergoing extensive sea trials right now. I don't expect this class of ships don't be mass produced for a while. It seems like they are really building a lot of 039B class and might do so for another year or two. After which, I think Song, Yuan and Kilo submarines will represent the majority conventional submarine force. From that, I can say the diesel submarine fleet has modernized faster than any other area of PLAN. In comparison, the latest nuclear attack submarine is still stuck at least 2 generations behind Virginia class. There has been rumors that a 095 class submarine has been launched, but we won't find out for a while if that's the case.

Naval aviation also continued to modernize this year. The first naval regiment of J-10 and J-11B were formed this year. Naval aviation for PLA is very different from that of USN. The fixed wing aircraft do not operate from any ship. They are just expected to operate jointly with ships in naval warfare. Previously, PLANAF consist mostly of the extremely short legged J-7 and J-8 aircraft. By this year, all of the naval aviation divisions have at least one regiment of J-10, JH-7 or flankers. At the same time, more Y-8 special missions aircraft have been produced this year (including the new ASW aircraft). This means PLANAF should at least be able to help out naval ships in littoral conflicts. Back in the days, they were pretty much useless. In the coming year, I expect to see more Y-8 special missions aircraft and naval helicopters to join PLANAF. One of the biggest problems of PLAN is the shortage of helicopters. This problem is getting better with the induction of more Ka-28/31 and Z-8s, but will remain a huge problem until Z-15 enters service.

As I look back in 2011, this was a really exciting year to follow PLAN. I have spent a lot of time talking about new toys that PLAN is getting. That's something which is relatively easy to quantify when one follows PLAN. The much harder question to answer is the software part of modernization. With all of these new hardware, how much has the training and doctrines improved to be able to effectively use these new weapon systems? With all of the new ships coming into service, PLAN will need to train new sailors to be able to operate these new ships. I have read many articles about large military exercises, new training methods and great achievements by PLAN. However, much of those pieces just seem to be propaganda. It's easy to see that PLAN is happy with ships like 052C, 054A and 071, but it's much harder to compare PLAN training to that of Western navies. We have certainly seen PLAN sending ships on more missions away from home. Gulf of Aden deployments have been a great success. Hopefully, that will also lead to greater understanding and cooperation with Western navies. We have also seen more joint exercises and port calls in the past couple of years. Hopefully, that will also lead to better relations with other nations. However, the recent naval expansion has also caused a lot of discomfort among China's neighbors. While I'm not advocating that PLAN should stop modernization and transformation into a blue water navy. It should also be mindful on how its actions will affect its neighbors.

Looking forward to 2012 and beyond, it's easy to see that this modernization process is not slowing down. All of the major naval shipyards are continuously churning out new ships. In a couple of years, we will start seeing fixed wing aircraft take off and land on Varyag. The greatest support for PLAN modernization comes from the launching of 893 test ship. As recently as 2005, PLAN only had one ship (891) to test out new sensors and weapon systems. Now, it has 3 ships testing out new weapon systems. I have read about quite a few weapon systems that they are developing, so I'm waiting to see them appear on these test ships. I do also see possible problems ahead. With China's economy facing a turbulent future, that should also effect the amount of money it can spend on its navy. It's unlikely to face the same level of austerity as European countries, but it should also not get overly ambitious with new developments.

What would happen if European embargo is lifted

I had originally wanted to just do a comparison of European and Chinese military industrial complex and talk about the gap between them. After thinking about it a little bit, I figure that this might be too difficult to do due to my unfamiliarity with much of European military industry. Instead, I think I'm going to revisit the topic of what China can buy from Europe once the European arms embargo is lifted.

With all of the recent tension in the Eurozone, I believe that it will eventually break down due to the unsustainability of this system. There will be much discontentment amongst EU member states countries over the austerity measures imposed by Eurozone leaders. At some point this will blow up in many of the peripheral countries, which will lead the EU member states to puruse more individualistic policies. We could see a complete repeal of the arms embargo by EU or by individual countries within EU, while certain countries (like UK) will still maintain arms embargo due to their relationships with America. While different EU countries would likely pursue different levels of military clearance when it comes to exports to China, I will make the assumption that most non-strategic systems from EU countries will be available to China.

For a look at how I think lifting European embargo will help China, we can take again at the cidex article. The part about Norwegian manufacturer Sensonor was most enlightening.

Sensonor’s MEMS gyroscope components offer the possibility for radically improving the accuracy of Chinese missile systems and precision-guided munitions. The central component is the STIM202 Butterfly gyro, which is a 55-gram miniature module that replaces previous-generation fibre-optic, ring laser and mechanical gyros .....
If the Sensonor technology is purchased by Chinese industry in significant numbers, their missiles and other guided weapons will achieve levels of performance and accuracy comparable to their western counterparts, but at a much lower total system cost. Even though Kotel in China are already producing a similar product, the people from Sensonor said that they are not worried about their product being reverse-engineered and illegally copied....
Why selling this product into China is not considered a violation of the EU arms embargo on the PRC is unknown. Having no ITAR content may be one issue, but the significant increase it will bring to the accuracy of Chinese weaponry certainly violates the spirit – if not the letter – of the EU embargo.

What I want to illustrate here is that EU companies are already helping PLA modernization even with the arm embargo in place. When China wants to purchase platforms or technology from Russia, it has to deal with Rosoboronexport and Russian government. Unlike its dealings with Russia, China relies on EU companies more for components and subsystems rather than whole systems. Small European companies like Sensonor provide quality commercial off the shelf products that can be used on missiles, avionics and platforms. The entire Russian defense industry has progressed more into the world of capitalism, but much of its practice is still stuck in Soviet Era mindset. The Russian companies that produce components for military systems can do so for Russian weapons, but they are not commercially competitive. In fact, many Russian weapon platforms (for domestic and export) are using European suppliers now. Similarly, China has been purchasing whatever dual use components it can from EU companies. In many cases, Chinese suppliers do exist, but the European suppliers may produce higher quality components. As in the case of Sensonor's MEMS gyroscope, Chinese missiles and PGMs have benefited with increased accuracy. I feel like if the European embargo gets lifted, more EU suppliers will be able to support different COTS components for Chinese weapons. That will simply improve the quality and price of Chinese weapons. And this will be the case even if it takes another 50 years for the embargo to be lifted. We are in globalized world economy where most products require suppliers from different countries around the world. Even if the Chinese manufacturers can build everything, they will never be the most competitive supplier for every component. As shown in the recent scandal over fake Chinese components, even US military systems require parts from everywhere around the world. Having the option of purchasing from a technologically advanced base like EU could only be very fruitful for new Chinese weapons.

At the moment, China already benefits from working with numerous EU suppliers. Certain weapon systems like HQ-7 SAM, Type 360 radar, 100 mm naval gun and PL-11 AAM are from contracts signed prior to the arms embargo. Other subsystems like Sky Master surveillance radar, SEMT Pielstick engines for different PLAN ships, Kamewa waterjet propulsion for 022s, Arriel-1 engine for Z-9s and different parts of Z-10 have been allowed to export under the dual use umbrella (or too old in the case of WS-9 engine). China has even been able to leverage the dual use nature of helicopters to enter into co-development projects for EC-120 and EC-175. China is also able to enter into co-development projects with European companies for WZ-16 (to be used on EC-175) and SF-A (the domestic option for C-919). I would imagine that propulsion technology is one area where China would seek for help if arms embargo gets lifted. Different types of turbofan engines and gas turbine would become available for aviation and naval platforms. The other areas that China can purchase from EU countries are radars, different types of sensors, combat systems and sonars. As we’ve already seen with foreign participation in the avionics of C-919, China still has a lot to gain for cooperation with Western companies. Due to concerns over IP, what EU countries are willing to export to China may not be better than Chinese products in many cases. China could also purchase European technology for air defence technology. In many of these areas like Long range SAMs, China has already made significant progress in the recent years. However, they could still cooperate on some kind of medium ranged active radar guidance naval SAM based on Aster-15 to replace the semi-active radar HQ-16. They could also cooperate with European countries on Anti-aircraft artillery as most of PLA’s AA artilleries are developed based on what they imported in the 80s. They could also obtain different kind of air defence ammunitions like DART to improve the capabilities of the 76 mm naval gun and future naval gun class. I don’t think China needs to import gun systems, but they could certainly get help on improving target acquisition and guidance. They could also cooperate with European countries to obtain the latest torpedoes. The capabilities of Chinese torpedoes are rarely mentioned, so it’s hard for me to get an idea of where they are. However, Europe certain has advanced light and heavy torpedoes that China could purchase.

There are also whole systems that China could purchase from Europe. European countries are generally fairly advanced in weapon sectors that highly leverage civilian technology like helicopters and transports and comparatively less advanced in weapon sectors that require specialized military industries like any kind of strategic platform like nuclear submarine and aircraft carrier. China can certainly purchase different kind of naval helicopters like NH-90 for the navy. It can also purchase large transport like A400M or the A330 tanker or a platform for AWACS. Even though China is making progress in these areas, it’s still quite far behind Europe in large aircraft. I’m not only talking about R&D, but also production capabilities. China is still probably a generation behind Europe in submarine technology. Even the latest submarine we saw out of WuChang shipyard is still behind the likes of U-212 and Scorpene in terms of acoustic levels and signature management. I don’t think China needs to purchase entire systems, but it could cooperate with European companies like DCN to improve the design off future submarines. Other than these areas, I can’t see a compelling case for China to purchase any other large system from Europe.