There are a lot of suspicions that this is SAC's 5th generation project. In fact, Huitong has posted one of these pictures on his website and Chinese military forums are again buzzing with talks on the so called F-60/J-21 project.
I have always thought that SAC was working on a 5th generation project and believed that it will be unveiled around this time, so I'm not surprised at these news. However, I think we should also wait and see the covers off and more pictures coming out before judging how effective of a plane it will be or if this model that's been transported is even real.
As usual, let's keep our figures crossed and wait for more info to come out.
Monday, June 25, 2012
SAC's 5th generation effort
I've been gone most of the past month because I was getting read to be married and then going on honeymoon and moving in to a new place afterward. I've finally been able to catch up on the PLA news a little bit in the past few days.
One of the more interesting things popping up in the last few days is the mysterious plane under the covers from SAC.
There are a lot of suspicions that this is SAC's 5th generation project. In fact, Huitong has posted one of these pictures on his website and Chinese military forums are again buzzing with talks on the so called F-60/J-21 project.
I have always thought that SAC was working on a 5th generation project and believed that it will be unveiled around this time, so I'm not surprised at these news. However, I think we should also wait and see the covers off and more pictures coming out before judging how effective of a plane it will be or if this model that's been transported is even real.
As usual, let's keep our figures crossed and wait for more info to come out.
There are a lot of suspicions that this is SAC's 5th generation project. In fact, Huitong has posted one of these pictures on his website and Chinese military forums are again buzzing with talks on the so called F-60/J-21 project.
I have always thought that SAC was working on a 5th generation project and believed that it will be unveiled around this time, so I'm not surprised at these news. However, I think we should also wait and see the covers off and more pictures coming out before judging how effective of a plane it will be or if this model that's been transported is even real.
As usual, let's keep our figures crossed and wait for more info to come out.
Sunday, April 22, 2012
Recent activities around Chinese shipyards
The last blog entry was deemed to be too negative toward Chinese social problems by some readers. So, I want to spend this entry to just catch up on the activities around the different Chinese shipyards. In many ways, this has been one of the most active years of naval shipbuilding in recent times. We are seeing heavy activity going on in most of the major shipyards around the country. Below are some of the recent photos we have seen of surface ships. There has been a continued submarine production, but I've somewhat lost track of the exact number of Yuan submarines that have been produced. I think they are still in the single digits. Work is also continuing on Varyag, but I don't have any news to report other than it is recently conducting another sea trial.
First of all, the 056 project is really making some progress. They are building them in both HuDong and HuangPu shipyard alongside the 054A projects. I'm really curious of how the 056 will turn out in the end, but it's already turning out to be smaller than I had expected. If you get a full picture of 056 next to 054A at HP shipyard, you'd see how small 056 is. Interestingly enough, it does have an outsized looking bow mounted sonar.
There are currently 2 056 in advanced stage of construction at HD shipyard. You can see them below with the first picture showing both of them and the second one just showing the one that's more advanced.
The pictures below shows the first 056 from HP shipyard that is building beside the 8th 054A from there. This appears to be the 056 that's the furthest along.
The pictures of 052C below are from a month ago. The first two pictures shows the third, fourth and fifth 052C from JN shipyard. The third one has since joined the East Sea Fleet as 150. The next 3 052C should be joining the same flotilla as 150. You can see that the fourth and fifth are both launched and in various stage of fitting out. I don't believe either has gone on sea trials yet.
The next two photos show the 6th and 7th 052C under construction and yet to be launched. It's still unknown at this point if these units will have any differences from the launched ones.
We have not seen much new action for 071 LPD. The third unit is still parked outside of HD shipyard.
The picture below shows the 2nd and 3rd Type 926 submarine tender that were getting fitted out at GuangZhou shipyard. I believe the second one may have gone on sea trials recently, because we have not seen any pictures coming out for it.
Of course, the 054A project is still ongoing. The picture below shows the 6th 054A from HD shipyard. The 5th one just joined service recently with North Sea Fleet. I haven't seen any recent photos of the 7th one, because HD shipyard has a lot of activity going around.
The next two are the 7th and 8th 054A from HP shipyard. I think the 6th one is close to joining service. The 8th one looks to not be that far away from launching.
And finally, we are seeing new AOR ships with PLAN. Unlike previous speculations, these look to have very few modifications from the existing Type 903 AORs (886, 887) currently in service with PLAN. One of them was launched a month ago in Guangzhou.
The other one is in advanced stage of construction of HD shipyard.
So, there is a lot of activities going on. I will I have more time to report on these things, but things are pretty busy, so I will try to report on them once in a while.
The pictures below shows the first 056 from HP shipyard that is building beside the 8th 054A from there. This appears to be the 056 that's the furthest along.
The pictures of 052C below are from a month ago. The first two pictures shows the third, fourth and fifth 052C from JN shipyard. The third one has since joined the East Sea Fleet as 150. The next 3 052C should be joining the same flotilla as 150. You can see that the fourth and fifth are both launched and in various stage of fitting out. I don't believe either has gone on sea trials yet.
The next two photos show the 6th and 7th 052C under construction and yet to be launched. It's still unknown at this point if these units will have any differences from the launched ones.
We have not seen much new action for 071 LPD. The third unit is still parked outside of HD shipyard.
The picture below shows the 2nd and 3rd Type 926 submarine tender that were getting fitted out at GuangZhou shipyard. I believe the second one may have gone on sea trials recently, because we have not seen any pictures coming out for it.
Of course, the 054A project is still ongoing. The picture below shows the 6th 054A from HD shipyard. The 5th one just joined service recently with North Sea Fleet. I haven't seen any recent photos of the 7th one, because HD shipyard has a lot of activity going around.The next two are the 7th and 8th 054A from HP shipyard. I think the 6th one is close to joining service. The 8th one looks to not be that far away from launching.
And finally, we are seeing new AOR ships with PLAN. Unlike previous speculations, these look to have very few modifications from the existing Type 903 AORs (886, 887) currently in service with PLAN. One of them was launched a month ago in Guangzhou.
The other one is in advanced stage of construction of HD shipyard.
So, there is a lot of activities going on. I will I have more time to report on these things, but things are pretty busy, so I will try to report on them once in a while.
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Looking at a recent article on US/China rivalry
The relationship between China and America has been characterized by many as complex. Even with the bitter partisanship in Washington, most democrats and republicans seem to have no problem looking at China as a threat and using China as a scapegoat for economic problems in America. I think it's also quite clear that the US military views China as its most likely foe in the future regardless of how many confidence building measures are proposed. Of course, the Chinese government officially try to avoid overly confrontational language, even though PLA generals and Global Time often voice strong opposition to America.
Recently, I read this article where it talks about how people in the Chinese ruling elite really feel about America. Here are a few really interesting snippet.
None of these above views are surprising, since I've read all of these view points from different sources and at least partially agree with most of the above points. It's particularly hard to address all of them, so I hope I don't go completely off track with my thoughts here. I think this is an extremely important topic. I know this can be a sensitive topic and most of my views are probably not popular, but I can only state how I see things. I do apologize in advance if I offend anyone.
The first question is whether or not US is a declining power. I think if we compare where US is right now to where it was at the collapse of Soviet Union, there is no question that it has declined. More than anything else, I think the two prolonged wars in Middle East that are operated completely on debts have really accelerated the American decline. In the coming years, I think it will decline further when compared against the rising economies of China, India and Brazil. In several areas like financial prowess and manufacturing power, China has already caught up or surpassed America. In other areas like military, higher education/research and cultural influence, it's hard to see when China will ever catch up to America. The areas that China will likely to gain ground on America in the coming years is the overall economy and political influence around the world. Another thing to consider is that American allies in the Western world are also on the decline due to debts issues, decreasing productivity and population decline. So if we just look at the current economic and finance situation in America and the rest of the Western world, it would seem like China (and other rising powers like India and Brazil) are poised to take over.
The second question is whether or not the China is actually ready to take over from America. I think the answer to this is no. A lot of times, we are blinded by the 30+ years of economic growth in China and fail to see the problems in the country. The problems that China and America face are quite different. America is facing huge debts problems from years of excessive public and private sector spending. American Federal, state and municipal governments faces much financial problem in the coming years related to the runaway health care, social security and public sector pension costs. China's government is not burdened by these excessive public sector spending problems, but it faces a lot more social problems. I have always that pollution and corruption are China's biggest problems. Now, I have to add two more to the list: the extreme male/female population imbalance and the increasingly unsustainable wealth gap between the rich and the poor. The first problem results in a lot of frustrated single men, large prostitution industry and escalating home prices (from women demanding owning home before marriage), Having a lot of frustrated single men have historically been a really bad social situation (more conflict and wars). The second problem is exaggerated by the absolute wastefulness of many rich Chinese people and how these people made their money in the first place. These people make Wall Street bankers look like Mother Theresa's. So even though China has gotten a lot wealthier, there are serious social tension within the country toward the wealthy and the corrupted officials that are further exaggerated by frustration over male/female imbalance, lack of free speech, inflation and very polluted environment. The Chinese government really has more things to worry about at home. On top of all of this, China's banks and local governments are also grappling with debt problems from all of the recent economically unfeasible public sector projects. I think the Western bank and public sector debt problems are larger, but China's debt problems are ready to explode too. The Chinese leadership would be making a huge mistake if it overestimates itself and underestimates America.
The third question is whether or not America is really trying to hold back China. I think the answer to this is yes. China's goal is to create a multi-polar world where it assumes regional hegemony. American goal is to remain as the sole superpower in a unipolar world where no other country establishes local hegemony. Clearly, the two countries have different political goals and will clash against each other. Currently, this is playing out in South East Asia where China is trying to achieve regional hegemony, but America has managed to inject itself back into the region and prevent that. I think this will continue to play out in the future as long as the two nations have such polar opposite political vision. I think that once India grows powerful enough, it will also clash with America on the very same issues. Just think about what would happen if India becomes confident enough to assert its own view points on countries like Iran, Afghanistan and demand greater say in energy coming out of the Middle East.
The fourth question is whether or not this is a zero sum game. I think the answer is yes and no. The two countries can obviously work together to address a lot of the security threats that we face today. At the same time, China cannot achieve regional hegemony with America around nor can it be part of a multi-polar world without America loosing influence. There is also the scenario where both country looses influence if the social problems in China blows up and the debts problems in America blows up. We are already seeing EU declining significantly in the recent years due to its financial and debts problems. The other part of the zero sum game is economy. In the near term, the two countries need each other to have continued economic growth. If one country suffers a large slow down, it will have large affect on the other country. As I've said in the past, a trade war would have crippling effects on both countries. In the long term, I think it is somewhat of a zero sum game. The world has finite natural resources and energy sources. As we approach peak oil, the cost of energy will simply grow higher and higher. If all of the countries are battling for the same finite resources to keep economy going, then they will clearly be in competition with each other. We already see some of that with China signing deals around the world for oil reserves and mining rights to different natural resources. This is another area where India will also really be competing with China and America on. Just imagine the energy and natural resource demand of China and India if they all seek to live the same quality of life as Americans. As the world population expands, we will also be battling over basic necessities like water and food.
In the end of the day, I think both countries face a lot of challenges ahead. In their current path, China and America clearly has confrontation world view, but that may change in the future. If China goes through a period of social instability or economic meltdown, who knows how its foreign policy will change. Looking at its 5000 years of history, China has always been a country that concentrated on itself. If America goes through anything close to Greece style debts crisis, I think that would have to cutback on its role in the world affairs. I think India will be a very large player in the future as its population and economy continues to grow. I think Brazil will also have a very strong voice in the future, whereas countries like Japan, UK and the rest of EU will continue to be in decline. In 15 years, we won't just be talking about a G2 kind of world. With energy and natural resources become increasingly scarce, we could see conflicts over them in the future. More than anything, I think that's where I see the highest possibility of a major future conflict.
Recently, I read this article where it talks about how people in the Chinese ruling elite really feel about America. Here are a few really interesting snippet.
The senior leadership of the Chinese government increasingly views the competition between the United States and China as a zero-sum game, with China the likely long-range winner if the American economy and domestic political system continue to stumble
China views the United States as a declining power, but at the same time believes that Washington is trying to fight back to undermine, and even disrupt, the economic and military growth that point to China’s becoming the world’s most powerful country
the authors say the level of strategic distrust between the two countries has become so corrosive that if not corrected the countries risk becoming open antagonists.
In contrast, China has mounting self-confidence in its own economic and military strides, particularly the closing power gap since the start of the Iraq war. In 2003, he argues, America’s gross domestic product was eight times as large as China’s, but today it is less than three times larger.
the Chinese leadership, backed by the domestic news media and the education system, believes that China’s turn in the world has arrived, and that it is the United States that is “on the wrong side of history.”
China’s financial successes, starting with weathering the 1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis, the execution of events like the Beijing Olympics in 2008 and the Shanghai Expo in 2010, contrast with America’s “alarming” deficit, sluggish economic recovery and polarized domestic politics
None of these above views are surprising, since I've read all of these view points from different sources and at least partially agree with most of the above points. It's particularly hard to address all of them, so I hope I don't go completely off track with my thoughts here. I think this is an extremely important topic. I know this can be a sensitive topic and most of my views are probably not popular, but I can only state how I see things. I do apologize in advance if I offend anyone.
The first question is whether or not US is a declining power. I think if we compare where US is right now to where it was at the collapse of Soviet Union, there is no question that it has declined. More than anything else, I think the two prolonged wars in Middle East that are operated completely on debts have really accelerated the American decline. In the coming years, I think it will decline further when compared against the rising economies of China, India and Brazil. In several areas like financial prowess and manufacturing power, China has already caught up or surpassed America. In other areas like military, higher education/research and cultural influence, it's hard to see when China will ever catch up to America. The areas that China will likely to gain ground on America in the coming years is the overall economy and political influence around the world. Another thing to consider is that American allies in the Western world are also on the decline due to debts issues, decreasing productivity and population decline. So if we just look at the current economic and finance situation in America and the rest of the Western world, it would seem like China (and other rising powers like India and Brazil) are poised to take over.
The second question is whether or not the China is actually ready to take over from America. I think the answer to this is no. A lot of times, we are blinded by the 30+ years of economic growth in China and fail to see the problems in the country. The problems that China and America face are quite different. America is facing huge debts problems from years of excessive public and private sector spending. American Federal, state and municipal governments faces much financial problem in the coming years related to the runaway health care, social security and public sector pension costs. China's government is not burdened by these excessive public sector spending problems, but it faces a lot more social problems. I have always that pollution and corruption are China's biggest problems. Now, I have to add two more to the list: the extreme male/female population imbalance and the increasingly unsustainable wealth gap between the rich and the poor. The first problem results in a lot of frustrated single men, large prostitution industry and escalating home prices (from women demanding owning home before marriage), Having a lot of frustrated single men have historically been a really bad social situation (more conflict and wars). The second problem is exaggerated by the absolute wastefulness of many rich Chinese people and how these people made their money in the first place. These people make Wall Street bankers look like Mother Theresa's. So even though China has gotten a lot wealthier, there are serious social tension within the country toward the wealthy and the corrupted officials that are further exaggerated by frustration over male/female imbalance, lack of free speech, inflation and very polluted environment. The Chinese government really has more things to worry about at home. On top of all of this, China's banks and local governments are also grappling with debt problems from all of the recent economically unfeasible public sector projects. I think the Western bank and public sector debt problems are larger, but China's debt problems are ready to explode too. The Chinese leadership would be making a huge mistake if it overestimates itself and underestimates America.
The third question is whether or not America is really trying to hold back China. I think the answer to this is yes. China's goal is to create a multi-polar world where it assumes regional hegemony. American goal is to remain as the sole superpower in a unipolar world where no other country establishes local hegemony. Clearly, the two countries have different political goals and will clash against each other. Currently, this is playing out in South East Asia where China is trying to achieve regional hegemony, but America has managed to inject itself back into the region and prevent that. I think this will continue to play out in the future as long as the two nations have such polar opposite political vision. I think that once India grows powerful enough, it will also clash with America on the very same issues. Just think about what would happen if India becomes confident enough to assert its own view points on countries like Iran, Afghanistan and demand greater say in energy coming out of the Middle East.
The fourth question is whether or not this is a zero sum game. I think the answer is yes and no. The two countries can obviously work together to address a lot of the security threats that we face today. At the same time, China cannot achieve regional hegemony with America around nor can it be part of a multi-polar world without America loosing influence. There is also the scenario where both country looses influence if the social problems in China blows up and the debts problems in America blows up. We are already seeing EU declining significantly in the recent years due to its financial and debts problems. The other part of the zero sum game is economy. In the near term, the two countries need each other to have continued economic growth. If one country suffers a large slow down, it will have large affect on the other country. As I've said in the past, a trade war would have crippling effects on both countries. In the long term, I think it is somewhat of a zero sum game. The world has finite natural resources and energy sources. As we approach peak oil, the cost of energy will simply grow higher and higher. If all of the countries are battling for the same finite resources to keep economy going, then they will clearly be in competition with each other. We already see some of that with China signing deals around the world for oil reserves and mining rights to different natural resources. This is another area where India will also really be competing with China and America on. Just imagine the energy and natural resource demand of China and India if they all seek to live the same quality of life as Americans. As the world population expands, we will also be battling over basic necessities like water and food.
In the end of the day, I think both countries face a lot of challenges ahead. In their current path, China and America clearly has confrontation world view, but that may change in the future. If China goes through a period of social instability or economic meltdown, who knows how its foreign policy will change. Looking at its 5000 years of history, China has always been a country that concentrated on itself. If America goes through anything close to Greece style debts crisis, I think that would have to cutback on its role in the world affairs. I think India will be a very large player in the future as its population and economy continues to grow. I think Brazil will also have a very strong voice in the future, whereas countries like Japan, UK and the rest of EU will continue to be in decline. In 15 years, we won't just be talking about a G2 kind of world. With energy and natural resources become increasingly scarce, we could see conflicts over them in the future. More than anything, I think that's where I see the highest possibility of a major future conflict.
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Improved living conditions on PLAN ships
For the past number of years, China has always made the announcement that it is using the increased defense budget to not only pay for purchases and training, but also to raise the wages and living standard of the armed forces. The latter point often gets ignored by the China threat crowd, but I think it's something important to look at.
Kanwa defence has often talked about the much more significant improvements in the PLA living quarters compared to that of India's armed forces. It really is a stark contrast when one considers the amount of investment both countries spend on procuring new weapons.
The improved wages and living condition of PLA service members is a general reflection on the changing dynamics of the Chinese society. As a result of the vastly improved quality of lives in China, PLA also has to improve its living conditions to attract new recruits. When one considers that PLAN is shifting toward a blue water style navy, PLAN sailors will have to spend longer time away from home than ever before. As with the other three services, PLAN is looking to recruit higher educated and more technologically proficient personnel in order to operate the newer ships that it has been building. The recruitment process cannot be easy for PLAN. Not only does it have to compete with all of the companies around the country, but it also has to compete with the other three services of PLA. There is already a growing population crisis in China due to the extremely tilted male to female ratio of the current generation of youth. The increasingly blue water demand for PLAN will result in longer trips away from home for the sailors. The life style of having to spend long period away from home naval base is not appealing to most young men, who have to think about finding wives. As a result of this, PLAN has moved away from Soviet style of treating sailors like robots to actually allowing sailors to have more enjoyment on ships. If they do not do this, PLAN would have a really hard time to retain the NCOs that it recruited. Chinese news websites have documented the improvements in sleeping areas, seating and food for submarines and other ships that are making long deployments. We have seen pictures of larger basketball courts and improved cafeteria on Type 071 LPDs. The most interesting part of this movement is the commissioning of the No. 88 Life Style ship as shown below.
Since China does not have any official overseas naval base, No. 88 was launched to address crew fatigue. It should also be able to give sailors medical attention. While this is not as luxurious as a cruise ship, it is still quite an interesting ship.
First we have special female cabin with more spaces and head board that can be lowered to become a desk.
Other cabins come in the form of high quality single person cabin, single person cabin, 2 people cabin, 4 people cabin and 6 people cabin. Some cabins apparently also hold retractable hammocks (for additional personnel I guess).
They have the first ever super market on a PLAN ship. Aside from this, they also having automated vending machines.
I think I may have seen work out room like this on Type 071, but this is probably the largest one on any PLAN ships.
It has a full size basketball court on the deck with a 300 meter track around it.
We have a modern conference room that can hold 200 people. With advanced audio visual equipment equipment, this can achieve multiple purposes: to organize cultural and sports party, serve as a maritime cinema. You can also unicom via video transmission system to the main compartment of the ship with a remote network information sharing.
It has a large multipurpose cafeteria.
And finally, it even has a cafe on board.
So, the living conditions on PLAN is definitely improving. While this "life style" ship is an anomaly, we should see more living style improvements and food quality improvements on PLAN war ships in the future. That not only increases the morale of sailors, but also will help PLAN recruit and retain college grads.
Kanwa defence has often talked about the much more significant improvements in the PLA living quarters compared to that of India's armed forces. It really is a stark contrast when one considers the amount of investment both countries spend on procuring new weapons.
The improved wages and living condition of PLA service members is a general reflection on the changing dynamics of the Chinese society. As a result of the vastly improved quality of lives in China, PLA also has to improve its living conditions to attract new recruits. When one considers that PLAN is shifting toward a blue water style navy, PLAN sailors will have to spend longer time away from home than ever before. As with the other three services, PLAN is looking to recruit higher educated and more technologically proficient personnel in order to operate the newer ships that it has been building. The recruitment process cannot be easy for PLAN. Not only does it have to compete with all of the companies around the country, but it also has to compete with the other three services of PLA. There is already a growing population crisis in China due to the extremely tilted male to female ratio of the current generation of youth. The increasingly blue water demand for PLAN will result in longer trips away from home for the sailors. The life style of having to spend long period away from home naval base is not appealing to most young men, who have to think about finding wives. As a result of this, PLAN has moved away from Soviet style of treating sailors like robots to actually allowing sailors to have more enjoyment on ships. If they do not do this, PLAN would have a really hard time to retain the NCOs that it recruited. Chinese news websites have documented the improvements in sleeping areas, seating and food for submarines and other ships that are making long deployments. We have seen pictures of larger basketball courts and improved cafeteria on Type 071 LPDs. The most interesting part of this movement is the commissioning of the No. 88 Life Style ship as shown below.
Since China does not have any official overseas naval base, No. 88 was launched to address crew fatigue. It should also be able to give sailors medical attention. While this is not as luxurious as a cruise ship, it is still quite an interesting ship.
First we have special female cabin with more spaces and head board that can be lowered to become a desk.
Other cabins come in the form of high quality single person cabin, single person cabin, 2 people cabin, 4 people cabin and 6 people cabin. Some cabins apparently also hold retractable hammocks (for additional personnel I guess).
They have the first ever super market on a PLAN ship. Aside from this, they also having automated vending machines.
I think I may have seen work out room like this on Type 071, but this is probably the largest one on any PLAN ships.
It has a full size basketball court on the deck with a 300 meter track around it.
We have a modern conference room that can hold 200 people. With advanced audio visual equipment equipment, this can achieve multiple purposes: to organize cultural and sports party, serve as a maritime cinema. You can also unicom via video transmission system to the main compartment of the ship with a remote network information sharing.
It has a large multipurpose cafeteria.
And finally, it even has a cafe on board.
So, the living conditions on PLAN is definitely improving. While this "life style" ship is an anomaly, we should see more living style improvements and food quality improvements on PLAN war ships in the future. That not only increases the morale of sailors, but also will help PLAN recruit and retain college grads.
Monday, February 27, 2012
New PLAAF regiments
Over the past year, we really haven't seen much movement on the J-10 front. J-10B's prototype 1035 has been testing for a long time, but we've basically seen the same batch of J-10s in yellow primer conducting test flights out of CAC. The batch 06 was first sighted in late 2010 and then all the way through 2011. Finally, we are seeing this batch of J-10s getting delivered. Most recently, we see some J-10S painted in PLAAF with serial number 20x6x ready to join service in the 15th division at Datong.
So, it would seem like this is the last J-10A/S regiment. Scramble has also updated this 43rd regiment of 15th division to be a J-10 regiment.
At the same time, we've also identified 2 new JH-7A regiments in service with PLAAF. First of all, the 28th division seems to be getting a second regiment. There is a new JH-7A with the serial number 31098 showing up recently. According to Scramble, this new regiment (the 84th regiment) started to be replaced with JH-7A from late 2011. At the same time, a new JH-7A regiment seems to have been established in the 110th Air Brigade (4xx8x, where xxx is 050-099). This Air Brigade was formerly of the 37th division. It seems like PLAAF is doing some experimentation with orbat recently and the 37th division became 3 air brigades. This would also include the J-11B/S serving under the 111th Air Brigade. From what I can tell, 37th division is the only one that has been transformed this way in PLAAF thus far.
So, it would seem like this is the last J-10A/S regiment. Scramble has also updated this 43rd regiment of 15th division to be a J-10 regiment.
At the same time, we've also identified 2 new JH-7A regiments in service with PLAAF. First of all, the 28th division seems to be getting a second regiment. There is a new JH-7A with the serial number 31098 showing up recently. According to Scramble, this new regiment (the 84th regiment) started to be replaced with JH-7A from late 2011. At the same time, a new JH-7A regiment seems to have been established in the 110th Air Brigade (4xx8x, where xxx is 050-099). This Air Brigade was formerly of the 37th division. It seems like PLAAF is doing some experimentation with orbat recently and the 37th division became 3 air brigades. This would also include the J-11B/S serving under the 111th Air Brigade. From what I can tell, 37th division is the only one that has been transformed this way in PLAAF thus far.
Friday, February 10, 2012
PLAN conventional submarine fleet update
About a year ago, I wrote an entry on the Chinese submarine fleet. In that article, I talked about the different submarine classes in service with PLAN and a little bit on their history. When it comes to the development of new submarine classes, China typically follows the line of building one experiment boat of that class, followed by 3 or more boats that fixed the problems found in the first of the class and follows up with a slightly modified variant that gets mass produced. The change from the first unit and the 2nd batch is normally quite significant. The change from the 2nd batch and the third batch is generally quite minor from the outside, but more significant on the inside (improvements in sonar, combat system, fire control system and such). A lot of times we see two programs going on at the same time where one class is getting mass produced at the same time a follow-on class's first experimental boat is getting tested out. This development process has allowed PLAN's submarine fleet modernize at a faster rate than any other arm of PLAN (with the exception of Fast Attack Crafts).
A few years ago, most of the China threat group was alarmed at China's emerging force of conventional submarines. That has changed in the recent years as the ASBM project, the carrier project and nuclear submarines have really shifted their attention. At the same time, the growing fleet of 054As and larger surface ships like Type 071 and No. 866 hospital ship have also garnered a lot of attention. For PLAN followers like myself, it's easy to get drawn to the monthly updates of photos coming out of HD, JP and JN shipyard. Since most of submarines are produced at WuChang shipyard, we don't get as many submarine photos during production or during service. Since most of the pictures we get of conventional submarines don't have number painted on them, it's also hard for someone like myself to keep track of their numbers and their deployment. All of this leads to less attention paid to the conventional submarine program by everyone. Needless to say, the modernization of conventional sub force has not stopped in the process. So, this entry will look at some of the changes we have seen in the last couple of years.
First, I want to take a look at the structure of the conventional submarine force. There are 6 submarine flotilla split among the 3 fleets. The 2nd and 12th flotilla belong to the North Sea Fleet, 22nd and 42nd belong to the East Sea Fleet, whereas 32nd and 72nd belong to the South Sea Fleet. There is also a hierarchy within PLAN over the disbursement of the submarines. Due to its proximity to Taiwan and the proximity of the first chain of islands, East Sea Fleet is normally the first force that gets the new submarines. At the moment, all of the active submarines in ESF are what I call the 3rd generation submarines (either Song, Yuan or Kilo). All of the recent submarines from WuChang also gets tested out in one of the East Sea Fleet naval bases near Shanghai before they get commissioned. The South Sea Fleet seems to be next fleet in line. Back in the 90s, South Sea Fleet's submarine fleet was probably the weakness of the three fleets. At the time, the 52nd submarine flotilla had disbanded and SSF was left with just the 32nd submarine flotilla. This decision was probably made due to the many years of reduction in China's defense budget. The weakness of SSF's submarine fleet was one of the reasons that Vietnam was able to occupy some of the spratly islands. PLAN realized that it made a big mistake and established the 72nd submarine flotilla early in the 2000s along with the 31st nuclear submarine flotilla. The Ming class submarines from 32nd flotilla was transferred to the 72nd flotilla while it received the newer Song and Kilo class submarines. The North Sea Fleet is probably the weakest of the three fleets. For the longest time, NSF was the only fleet that had nuclear submarines, so it was always left to receive the oldest conventional submarines. With the recently modernization efforts, the 2nd flotilla is now almost completely equipped with Song class submarines. Although, the 12th flotilla probably still consists of the earliest variant of Ming class. These submarines are vastly outclassed by their Japanese or Korean counterparts.
Now, I want to look at the orbat changes in the last few years and the expected changes in the future. From what I can tell, the two flotilla of SSF has not changed recently. The 32nd flotilla consists of 4 Song and 4 Kilos, whereas the 72nd flotilla consists of 8 improved ming class submarines. The 42nd flotilla of ESF also has not changed, since the kilo submarines are still front line submarines. As Yuan class submarines have started joining the 22nd flotilla of ESF, the Song class submarines were getting transferred to NSF. The first four Yuan submarines (330 to 333) were transferred by 2009. Over the past year, there have probably been 3 or 4 more Yuans (334 to 337??) that have joined. At the current time, this flotilla has 2 song submarines and 7 or 8 Yuan submarines. By this point, the 2nd flotilla has already received 7 Song submarines. Obviously, the last 2 song will be transferred out to the 2nd flotilla at some point. One of the questions is what happened to the submarines that were previously there. It seems like PLAN has been fairly reluctant to just retire the old submarines. Some of the 033 submarines have been kept around for training purposes, but they will obviously have to start decommissioning the older 035s and 033s very soon. I think PLAN is unlikely to form a new conventional submarine flotilla, so the overall number of active submarines will be kept around 48. At current time, they have 12 kilos + 13 Songs + 8 Yuan = 33 submarines that would be considered as fairly new. If we discount the first experimental Song that was launched in 1994, they still only have to replace another 16 submarines before the Ming class submarines will all need to be retired. While up to 5 conventional submarines can be produced every year at the two shipyards, we will most likely see 3 submarines getting produced every year (due to budgetary constraints). At this pace, the replacement will be done by late this decade. The ming class submarines in 72nd flotilla were produced from 1994 to 2001. If they get replaced by 2020, they would've only been in service for 20 years. It's really hard to see PLAN take something that's only 20 years old out of service, even if it's obsolete. So, I wonder what will happen to them.
Thirdly, I want to look at what kind of threats each fleet are facing and whether the fleet that they have is suited for that task. The East Sea Fleet will continue to be opposite to Taiwan, so it will need to be prepared to be a deterrent against possible US intervention. As such, the most modern conventional submarines will be placed in ESF for anti-shipping missions and also ASW missions. It will likely continue to receive the newest conventional submarines. At the same time, the natural barrier of the first chain island and surrounding naval forces traps in the ESF, so ESF is unlikely to have nuclear submarine fleet in the future. The North Sea Fleet is surrounded by the much superior Japanese and Korean submarine fleet. It is also trapped by the extremely well equipped and trained Japanese ASW units. I think NSF is currently woefully equipped considering it's conditions. Like the rest of the fleet, the submarine flotillas have been the last to receive the Song submarines. And even when it does receive them, it gets the submarines that ESF no longer needs. For the longest time, this was balanced by the fact that NSF was the only one that had nuclear submarines, but that's no longer the case. Going forward, it's hard to see the newer nuclear submarines getting deployed here when it is completely surrounded by Japan and South Korea. For the next decade, this situation is unlikely to change, so NSF will continue to be inadequately equipped to handle possible threats. Finally, South Sea Fleet probably faces the weakest of surrounding navies. Even the Ming class submarines are capable of handling the threats from Vietnam and Phillipines. South Sea Fleet continues to be the main blue water fleet in PLAN, so one would expect that more nuclear submarines will be deployed here. Also compared to the other two fleets, conventional submarines in SSF are not trapped by first chain of island and foreign naval force, so the current conventional fleet is actually already suitable for the threats in its area. Due to the growing influence of SSF, I think it will get newer submarines before NSF even though NSF has much greater needs for those boats.
Overall, it's to see that the modernization of PLAN's conventional submarine fleet is still going very rapidly. It will most likely complete ahead of other part of PLAN's fleet. The submarines are deployed in a very unusual manner where the elite flotillas continue to get upgraded to newer submarines while the other flotilla pick up the scraps. From the service, this seems like something that will be problematic in the future. It will probably create resentment within PLAN toward the elite flotilla, although that might be an accepted practice of PLA. The more concerning part is that different flotilla will be continually trained for newer submarines. Rather than serving 20 years on the same boat, the sailors in the 22nd flotilla are probably changing to new submarines every 10 years. When I think about the time that it takes to properly train sailors to operate a new submarine, that seems to leave not much time for routine trainings and patrols. As mentioned previously, some of the Ming submarines may be removed from active duty after less than 20 years of service. What will happen to these submarines once this happens? As we move forward, the Song submarines are still relatively loud even though they are modern by Chinese standards. Even the latest submarine that we saw out of WuChang shipyard is still behind the acoustic levels of the most advanced conventional submarines around the world. What will the next generation of Chinese submarines look like? As PLAN becomes more of a blue water fleet and expands its nuclear submarine force, what kind of roles will the conventional submarines play? Will Chinese submarines become bigger players in the export market? These are all things that I'm looking forward to see.
A few years ago, most of the China threat group was alarmed at China's emerging force of conventional submarines. That has changed in the recent years as the ASBM project, the carrier project and nuclear submarines have really shifted their attention. At the same time, the growing fleet of 054As and larger surface ships like Type 071 and No. 866 hospital ship have also garnered a lot of attention. For PLAN followers like myself, it's easy to get drawn to the monthly updates of photos coming out of HD, JP and JN shipyard. Since most of submarines are produced at WuChang shipyard, we don't get as many submarine photos during production or during service. Since most of the pictures we get of conventional submarines don't have number painted on them, it's also hard for someone like myself to keep track of their numbers and their deployment. All of this leads to less attention paid to the conventional submarine program by everyone. Needless to say, the modernization of conventional sub force has not stopped in the process. So, this entry will look at some of the changes we have seen in the last couple of years.
First, I want to take a look at the structure of the conventional submarine force. There are 6 submarine flotilla split among the 3 fleets. The 2nd and 12th flotilla belong to the North Sea Fleet, 22nd and 42nd belong to the East Sea Fleet, whereas 32nd and 72nd belong to the South Sea Fleet. There is also a hierarchy within PLAN over the disbursement of the submarines. Due to its proximity to Taiwan and the proximity of the first chain of islands, East Sea Fleet is normally the first force that gets the new submarines. At the moment, all of the active submarines in ESF are what I call the 3rd generation submarines (either Song, Yuan or Kilo). All of the recent submarines from WuChang also gets tested out in one of the East Sea Fleet naval bases near Shanghai before they get commissioned. The South Sea Fleet seems to be next fleet in line. Back in the 90s, South Sea Fleet's submarine fleet was probably the weakness of the three fleets. At the time, the 52nd submarine flotilla had disbanded and SSF was left with just the 32nd submarine flotilla. This decision was probably made due to the many years of reduction in China's defense budget. The weakness of SSF's submarine fleet was one of the reasons that Vietnam was able to occupy some of the spratly islands. PLAN realized that it made a big mistake and established the 72nd submarine flotilla early in the 2000s along with the 31st nuclear submarine flotilla. The Ming class submarines from 32nd flotilla was transferred to the 72nd flotilla while it received the newer Song and Kilo class submarines. The North Sea Fleet is probably the weakest of the three fleets. For the longest time, NSF was the only fleet that had nuclear submarines, so it was always left to receive the oldest conventional submarines. With the recently modernization efforts, the 2nd flotilla is now almost completely equipped with Song class submarines. Although, the 12th flotilla probably still consists of the earliest variant of Ming class. These submarines are vastly outclassed by their Japanese or Korean counterparts.
Now, I want to look at the orbat changes in the last few years and the expected changes in the future. From what I can tell, the two flotilla of SSF has not changed recently. The 32nd flotilla consists of 4 Song and 4 Kilos, whereas the 72nd flotilla consists of 8 improved ming class submarines. The 42nd flotilla of ESF also has not changed, since the kilo submarines are still front line submarines. As Yuan class submarines have started joining the 22nd flotilla of ESF, the Song class submarines were getting transferred to NSF. The first four Yuan submarines (330 to 333) were transferred by 2009. Over the past year, there have probably been 3 or 4 more Yuans (334 to 337??) that have joined. At the current time, this flotilla has 2 song submarines and 7 or 8 Yuan submarines. By this point, the 2nd flotilla has already received 7 Song submarines. Obviously, the last 2 song will be transferred out to the 2nd flotilla at some point. One of the questions is what happened to the submarines that were previously there. It seems like PLAN has been fairly reluctant to just retire the old submarines. Some of the 033 submarines have been kept around for training purposes, but they will obviously have to start decommissioning the older 035s and 033s very soon. I think PLAN is unlikely to form a new conventional submarine flotilla, so the overall number of active submarines will be kept around 48. At current time, they have 12 kilos + 13 Songs + 8 Yuan = 33 submarines that would be considered as fairly new. If we discount the first experimental Song that was launched in 1994, they still only have to replace another 16 submarines before the Ming class submarines will all need to be retired. While up to 5 conventional submarines can be produced every year at the two shipyards, we will most likely see 3 submarines getting produced every year (due to budgetary constraints). At this pace, the replacement will be done by late this decade. The ming class submarines in 72nd flotilla were produced from 1994 to 2001. If they get replaced by 2020, they would've only been in service for 20 years. It's really hard to see PLAN take something that's only 20 years old out of service, even if it's obsolete. So, I wonder what will happen to them.
Thirdly, I want to look at what kind of threats each fleet are facing and whether the fleet that they have is suited for that task. The East Sea Fleet will continue to be opposite to Taiwan, so it will need to be prepared to be a deterrent against possible US intervention. As such, the most modern conventional submarines will be placed in ESF for anti-shipping missions and also ASW missions. It will likely continue to receive the newest conventional submarines. At the same time, the natural barrier of the first chain island and surrounding naval forces traps in the ESF, so ESF is unlikely to have nuclear submarine fleet in the future. The North Sea Fleet is surrounded by the much superior Japanese and Korean submarine fleet. It is also trapped by the extremely well equipped and trained Japanese ASW units. I think NSF is currently woefully equipped considering it's conditions. Like the rest of the fleet, the submarine flotillas have been the last to receive the Song submarines. And even when it does receive them, it gets the submarines that ESF no longer needs. For the longest time, this was balanced by the fact that NSF was the only one that had nuclear submarines, but that's no longer the case. Going forward, it's hard to see the newer nuclear submarines getting deployed here when it is completely surrounded by Japan and South Korea. For the next decade, this situation is unlikely to change, so NSF will continue to be inadequately equipped to handle possible threats. Finally, South Sea Fleet probably faces the weakest of surrounding navies. Even the Ming class submarines are capable of handling the threats from Vietnam and Phillipines. South Sea Fleet continues to be the main blue water fleet in PLAN, so one would expect that more nuclear submarines will be deployed here. Also compared to the other two fleets, conventional submarines in SSF are not trapped by first chain of island and foreign naval force, so the current conventional fleet is actually already suitable for the threats in its area. Due to the growing influence of SSF, I think it will get newer submarines before NSF even though NSF has much greater needs for those boats.
Overall, it's to see that the modernization of PLAN's conventional submarine fleet is still going very rapidly. It will most likely complete ahead of other part of PLAN's fleet. The submarines are deployed in a very unusual manner where the elite flotillas continue to get upgraded to newer submarines while the other flotilla pick up the scraps. From the service, this seems like something that will be problematic in the future. It will probably create resentment within PLAN toward the elite flotilla, although that might be an accepted practice of PLA. The more concerning part is that different flotilla will be continually trained for newer submarines. Rather than serving 20 years on the same boat, the sailors in the 22nd flotilla are probably changing to new submarines every 10 years. When I think about the time that it takes to properly train sailors to operate a new submarine, that seems to leave not much time for routine trainings and patrols. As mentioned previously, some of the Ming submarines may be removed from active duty after less than 20 years of service. What will happen to these submarines once this happens? As we move forward, the Song submarines are still relatively loud even though they are modern by Chinese standards. Even the latest submarine that we saw out of WuChang shipyard is still behind the acoustic levels of the most advanced conventional submarines around the world. What will the next generation of Chinese submarines look like? As PLAN becomes more of a blue water fleet and expands its nuclear submarine force, what kind of roles will the conventional submarines play? Will Chinese submarines become bigger players in the export market? These are all things that I'm looking forward to see.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Update from PLAN land
Every year, Chinese shipyards around the country stops working around Chinese New Year. Since Chinese New Year is less than a week away, we got some last minute photos from the Chinese shipyards.
First of all, we see the first two 056 class ships from HuDong shipyard. Now, there is also 056 under construction in HP shipyard, but these ones are more prominent and seem to be further along. There is still a debate on why PLAN even needs these ships, but that's a discussion for another day.
Secondly, we the work on 054As at HP shipyard continues to be extremely fast paced. The fifth ship (548) came back for work in HP shipyard.
The 7th one was launched a while ago.
The 8th one is amazingly far along considering the 6th 054A at HD shipyard just got launched a short while ago.
Finally, we got some new and interesting photos out of JN shipyard.
It looks like the 5th 052C just got launched very recently. The 3rd one has made a return to the shipyard after all the sea trials. I thought it was already commissioned. The next 3 photos show them from different angles. The 3rd one is definitely joining the navy soon. The 4th one has quite a bit to go before being ready to conduct sea trials. The 5th one looks to be slightly less finished than the 3rd and 4th one when they were launched. My feeling is that it was launched at this point because they needed the spaces in the dry dock halls for new ships.
We see below two new ships going into the dry docks and they appear to be the 6th and 7th 052C. I'm not sure if both of them will be 052C, because the rumour is that 7th ship would be in the 052D series.
So, there is a lot of activity going on in the Chinese shipyard. The work will probably stop a month, so we won't have much to see for a while.
First of all, we see the first two 056 class ships from HuDong shipyard. Now, there is also 056 under construction in HP shipyard, but these ones are more prominent and seem to be further along. There is still a debate on why PLAN even needs these ships, but that's a discussion for another day.
Secondly, we the work on 054As at HP shipyard continues to be extremely fast paced. The fifth ship (548) came back for work in HP shipyard.
The 7th one was launched a while ago.
The 8th one is amazingly far along considering the 6th 054A at HD shipyard just got launched a short while ago.
Finally, we got some new and interesting photos out of JN shipyard.
It looks like the 5th 052C just got launched very recently. The 3rd one has made a return to the shipyard after all the sea trials. I thought it was already commissioned. The next 3 photos show them from different angles. The 3rd one is definitely joining the navy soon. The 4th one has quite a bit to go before being ready to conduct sea trials. The 5th one looks to be slightly less finished than the 3rd and 4th one when they were launched. My feeling is that it was launched at this point because they needed the spaces in the dry dock halls for new ships.
We see below two new ships going into the dry docks and they appear to be the 6th and 7th 052C. I'm not sure if both of them will be 052C, because the rumour is that 7th ship would be in the 052D series.
So, there is a lot of activity going on in the Chinese shipyard. The work will probably stop a month, so we won't have much to see for a while.
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